Differences in the weighting and choice of evidence for plausible versus implausible causes.

Individuals have difficulty changing their causal beliefs in light of contradictory evidence. We hypothesized that this difficulty arises because people facing implausible causes give greater consideration to causal alternatives, which, because of their use of a positive test strategy, leads to differential weighting of contingency evidence. Across 4 experiments, participants learned about plausible or implausible causes of outcomes. Additionally, we assessed the effects of participants' ability to think of alternative causes of the outcomes. Participants either saw complete frequency information (Experiments 1 and 2) or chose what information to see (Experiments 3 and 4). Consistent with the positive test account, participants given implausible causes were more likely to inquire about the occurrence of the outcome in the absence of the cause (Experiments 3 and 4) than those given plausible causes. Furthermore, they gave less weight to Cells A and B in a 2 × 2 contingency table and gave either equal or less weight to Cells C and D (Experiments 1 and 2). These effects were inconsistently modified by participants' ability to consider alternative causes of the outcome. The total of the observed effects are not predicted by either dominant models of normative causal inference or by the particular positive test account proposed here, but they may be commensurate with a more broadly construed positive test account.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Psychological Association via http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a003554

HIV Infection, Immunosuppression, and Age at Diagnosis of Non-AIDS-Defining Cancers

Background: It is unclear whether immunosuppression leads to younger ages at cancer diagnosis among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). A previous study found that most cancers are not diagnosed at a younger age in people with AIDS, with the exception of anal and lung cancers. This study extends prior work to include all PLWH and examines associations between AIDS, CD4 count, and age at cancer diagnosis. Methods: We compared the median age at cancer diagnosis between PLWH in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design and the general population using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program. We used statistical weights to adjust for population differences. We also compared median age at cancer diagnosis by AIDS status and CD4 count. Results: After adjusting for population differences, younger ages at diagnosis (P < .05) were observed for PLWH compared with the general population for lung (difference in medians = 4 years), anal (difference = 4), oral cavity/pharynx (difference = 2), and kidney cancers (difference = 2) and myeloma (difference = 4). Among PLWH, having an AIDS-defining event was associated with a younger age at myeloma diagnosis (difference = 4; P = .01), and CD4 count <200 cells/µL (vs ≥500) was associated with a younger age at lung cancer diagnosis (difference = 4; P = .006). Conclusions: Among PLWH, most cancers are not diagnosed at younger ages. However, this study strengthens evidence that lung cancer, anal cancer, and myeloma are diagnosed at modestly younger ages, and also shows younger ages at diagnosis of oral cavity/pharynx and kidney cancers, possibly reflecting accelerated cancer progression, etiologic heterogeneity, or risk factor exposure in PLWH

CD4 count at presentation for HIV care in the United States and Canada: Are those over 50 years more likely to have a delayed presentation?

We assessed CD4 count at initial presentation for HIV care among ≥50-year-olds from 1997-2007 in 13 US and Canadian clinical cohorts and compared to <50-year-olds. 44,491 HIV-infected individuals in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included in our study. Trends in mean CD4 count (measured as cells/mm3) and 95% confidence intervals ([,]) were determined using linear regression stratified by age category and adjusted for gender, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk and cohort. From 1997-2007, the proportion of individuals presenting for HIV care who were ≥50-years-old increased from 17% to 27% (p-value < 0.01). The median CD4 count among ≥50 year-olds was consistently lower than younger adults. The interaction of age group and calendar year was significant (p-value <0.01) with both age groups experiencing modest annual improvements over time (< 50-year-olds: 5 [4 , 6] cells/mm3; ≥50-year-olds: 7 [5 , 9] cells/mm3), after adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk group and cohort; however, increases in the two groups were similar after 2000. A greater proportion of older individuals had an AIDS-defining diagnosis at, or within three months prior to, first presentation for HIV care compared to younger individuals (13% vs. 10%, respectively). Due to the increasing proportion, consistently lower CD4 counts, and more advanced HIV disease in adults ≥50-year-old at first presentation for HIV care, renewed HIV testing efforts are needed

Transthyretin Aggregation Pathway toward the Formation of Distinct Cytotoxic Oligomers

Characterization of small oligomers formed at an early stage of amyloid formation is critical to understanding molecular mechanism of pathogenic aggregation process. Here we identifed and characterized cytotoxic oligomeric intermediates populated during transthyretin (TTR) aggregation process. Under the amyloid-forming conditions, TTR initially forms a dimer through interactions between outer strands. The dimers are then associated to form a hexamer with a spherical shape, which serves as a building block to self-assemble into cytotoxic oligomers. Notably, wild-type (WT) TTR tends to form linear oligomers, while aTTR variant(G53A) prefers forming annular oligomers with pore-like structures. Structural analyses of the amyloidogenic intermediates using circular dichroism (CD) and solid-state NMR revealthatthe dimer and oligomers have a signifcant degree of native-like β-sheet structures (35–38%), but with more disordered regions (~60%)than those of nativeTTR.TheTTR variant oligomers are also less structured than WT oligomers. The partially folded nature of the oligomeric intermediates might be a common structural property of cytotoxic oligomers.The higher fexibility of the dimer and oligomers may also compensate for the entropic loss due to the oligomerization of the monomers

Incidence of AIDS-Defining Opportunistic Infections in a Multicohort Analysis of HIV-infected Persons in the United States and Canada, 2000–2010

Background. There are few recent data on the rates of AIDS-defining opportunistic infections (OIs) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected patients in care in the United States and Canada

Risk of Anal Cancer in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Individuals in North America

Background. Anal cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), although few have evaluated rates separately for men who have sex with men (MSM), other men, and women. There are also conflicting data regarding calendar trends

Invasive Cervical Cancer Risk Among HIV-Infected Women: A North American Multicohort Collaboration Prospective Study

HIV infection and low CD4+ T-cell count are associated with an increased risk of persistent oncogenic HPV infection – the major risk factor for cervical cancer. Few reported prospective cohort studies have characterized the incidence of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) in HIV-infected women

Missing Data on the Estimation of the Prevalence of Accumulated Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance in Patients Treated With Antiretroviral Drugs in North America

Determination of the prevalence of accumulated antiretroviral drug resistance among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is complicated by the lack of routine measurement in clinical care. By using data from 8 clinic-based cohorts from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, drug-resistance mutations from those with genotype tests were determined and scored using the Genotypic Resistance Interpretation Algorithm developed at Stanford University. For each year from 2000 through 2005, the prevalence was calculated using data from the tested subset, assumptions that incorporated clinical knowledge, and multiple imputation methods to yield a complete data set. A total of 9,289 patients contributed data to the analysis; 3,959 had at least 1 viral load above 1,000 copies/mL, of whom 2,962 (75%) had undergone at least 1 genotype test. Using these methods, the authors estimated that the prevalence of accumulated resistance to 2 or more antiretroviral drug classes had increased from 14% in 2000 to 17% in 2005 (P < 0.001). In contrast, the prevalence of resistance in the tested subset declined from 57% to 36% for 2 or more classes. The authors’ use of clinical knowledge and multiple imputation methods revealed trends in HIV drug resistance among patients in care that were markedly different from those observed using only data from patients who had undergone genotype tests

The modular systems biology approach to investigate the control of apoptosis in Alzheimer's disease neurodegeneration

Apoptosis is a programmed cell death that plays a critical role during the development of the nervous system and in many chronic neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). This pathology, characterized by a progressive degeneration of cholinergic function resulting in a remarkable cognitive decline, is the most common form of dementia with high social and economic impact. Current therapies of AD are only symptomatic, therefore the need to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the onset and progression of the disease is surely needed in order to develop effective pharmacological therapies. Because of its pivotal role in neuronal cell death, apoptosis has been considered one of the most appealing therapeutic targets, however, due to the complexity of the molecular mechanisms involving the various triggering events and the many signaling cascades leading to cell death, a comprehensive understanding of this process is still lacking. Modular systems biology is a very effective strategy in organizing information about complex biological processes and deriving modular and mathematical models that greatly simplify the identification of key steps of a given process. This review aims at describing the main steps underlying the strategy of modular systems biology and briefly summarizes how this approach has been successfully applied for cell cycle studies. Moreover, after giving an overview of the many molecular mechanisms underlying apoptosis in AD, we present both a modular and a molecular model of neuronal apoptosis that suggest new insights on neuroprotection for this disease