The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach

While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper we show, that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model, that explain money growth, inflation and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.Divisia money, state space decomposition, sign restrictions

Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries

While there has been some debate over the usefulness of monetary aggregates, there has been surprisingly little discussion of the actual implications for liquidity. In this paper, we provide an approximation of the liquidity development in six Euro area countries from 2003 to 2012. We show that properly measured monetary aggregates contain significant information about liquidity risk

Un paso hacia el derecho de los menores de edad a morir dignamente

"Diversas opiniones ha generado el borrador del proyecto de resolución, publicado por el Ministerio de Salud este jueves, con el que se reglamentará el derecho de los menores de edad mayores de seis años a morir dignamente. ""Manejar lo que significa el fin de vida, la muerte de un niño, emocionalmente nos genera un gran impacto a todos, independiente de que seamos papá, mamá o médicos, esta situación requiere que uno tenga un poco más de conocimientos"", apuntó la experta, quien participará en el Primer Foro de Eutanasia en niños y adolescentes la próxima semana en la Universidad CES. De otro lado y parte de la discusión es que los menores de edad no tienen la capacidad neuronal para tomar decisiones, una dificultad en este procesos en el que al menos, este debe entender que la muerte asistida es una decisión definitiva, según explicó Juan David Giraldo, coordinador del pregrado en psicología de la Universidad de Medellín.

"En el Inem se ""rompió la indiferencia"""

La necesidad de ser solidarios con el prójimo y de reprochar la violencia, fueron las premisas de la jornada reflexiva de este lunes en la Institución Educativa Inem José Félix de Restrepo, tras el incidente a las afueras de la misma el pasado 31 de enero, en el que una menor de edad fue agredida y le fue cortado su cabello, mientras que otra resultó herida con un arma blanca; ambas a manos de otras dos menores de edad. En 2017, 312 casos de bullying fueron reportados ante la Secretaría de Educación y en más de 228 instituciones educativas se harán actos simbólicos para rechazar la indiferencia y evitar actos en contra de los estudiantes. Por su parte Jorge Iván Avendaño, docente integrante de la Mesa del programa de Investigación Criminal de la Universidad de Medellín, indicó que es necesario tener en cuenta que el Código de Infancia y Adolescencia clasifica a los menores en edad en niños, niñas y adolescentes, lo que va a determinar las acciones que se realicen al momento de cometer un delito

¿Quién tiene la razón en el caso de docente transgénero en Tuluá?

John Fernando Restrepo, abogado constitucionalista y decano de la Facultad de Ciencias Sociales de la Universidad de Medellín explicó que, frente a este caso, que contiene tensiones entre los derechos de una y otra población, es fundamental revisar qué decisiones ha tomado la Corte Constitucional, garante de la carta magna colombiana, en el pasado, lo que constituye precedentes cuando se presentan estos hechos

Student Stress, Coping, and APPE Readiness at Two Public Institutions before and during the Pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly impacted pharmacy students education and well-being. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the pandemic on students perceived stress by comparing third- and fourth-year students from the pre-pandemic Class of 2019 with mid-pandemic Class of 2021 at two public institutions. Secondary aims were to evaluate the pandemic effects on students academic and professional development skills and practice readiness. The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and the Brief Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced (COPE) scale were used to measure student well-being. Students self-rated problem-solving, time management, and study skills were used to measure their academic and professional development; practice readiness was measured using students self-rated confidence levels. PSS scores were significantly higher in mid-pandemic than pre-pandemic students, and the Brief COPE avoidant coping subscale differed between pre-pandemic and mid-pandemic students. No differences were found in any academic and professional development skills between the pre- and mid-pandemic students, and there were significant improvements in student confidence levels for practice readiness among the mid-pandemic students. In conclusion, the pandemic appeared to affect students stress and avoidant coping mechanism but had variable effects on academic and professional development and practice readiness

Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters

While the long-run relation between money and inflation as predicted by the quantity theory is well established, empirical studies of the short-run adjustment process have been inconclusive at best. The literature regarding the validity of the quantity theory within a given economy is mixed. Previous research has found support for quantity theory within a given economy by combining the P-Star, the structural VAR and the monetary aggregation literature. However, these models lack precise modelling of the short-run dynamics by ignoring interest rates as the main policy instrument. Contrarily, most New Keynesian approaches, while excellently modeling the short-run dynamics transmitted through interest rates, ignore the role of money and thus the potential mid- and long-run effects of monetary policy. We propose a parsimonious and fairly unrestrictive econometric model that allows a detailed look into the dynamics of a monetary policy shock by accounting for changes in economic equilibria, such as potential output and money demand, in a framework that allows for both monetarist and New Keynesian transmission mechanisms, while also considering the Barnett critique. While we confirm most New Keynesian findings concerning the short-run dynamics, we also find strong evidence for a substantial role of the quantity of money for price movements.Während die von der Quantitätstheorie vorhergesagte Langfristbeziehung zwischen Geld und Inflation gut dokumentiert ist, sind die Ergebnisse empirischer Studien zum kurzfristigen Anpassungsprozess wenig aufschlussreich. Die diesbezügliche Literatur, die versucht, die Gültigkeit der Quantitätstheorie mit Zeitreihenmodellen innerhalb eines Landes zu bestätigen, kommt zu gemischten Ergebnissen. Aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten, in denen P-Star-Modelle mit strukturellen VAR-Modellen kombiniert werden und die die Erkenntnisse der Aggregationstheorie bezüglich der relevanten Geldmenge berücksichtigen, bestätigen die Quantitätstheorie. Allerdings vernachlässigen diese Modelle eine präzise Modellierung der kurzfristigen Inflationsdynamik, da die Zinssätze - als wesentliches Politikinstrument - nicht berücksichtigt werden. Im Gegensatz dazu ignorieren die Neukeynesianischen Modelle, die bei der Kurzfristmodellierung sehr gut abschneiden, die Rolle der Geldmenge und vernachlässigen so die denkbaren mittel- und langfristigen Konsequenzen der Geldpolitik. In diesem Papier stellen wir ein übersichtliches und dabei nur wenig restriktives ökonometrisches Modell vor, das einen detaillierten Blick auf die Dynamik nach einem geldpolitischen Schock erlaubt, indem es die Veränderung unbeobachtbarer Gleichgewichtsgrößen wie Produktionspotenzial und Geldnachfrage abbildet. Das ökonometrische Modell erlaubt so die Neukeynesianische wie auch monetaristische Transmission geldpolitischer Schocks und berücksichtigt gleichzeitig die Barnett-Kritik. Die Schätzergebnisse bestätigen einerseits die meisten Neukeynesianischen Effekte für die kurze Frist, deuten aber gleichzeitig stark auf eine langfristig wichtige Rolle der Geldmenge für die Preisentwicklung hin

The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach

While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper, we show that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model that explain money growth, inflation, and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.Im Gegensatz zur weitgehend etablierten Langfristbeziehung zwischen Geldmenge und Preisen ist die empirische Evidenz bezüglich des Anpassungsprozesses hin zu diesem Langfristgleichgewicht durchwachsen. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht diesen Zusammenhang für die USA im Zeitraum von 1960 bis 2005. Dazu wird ein multivariates Zustandsraummodell verwendet, das den herkömmlichen Kointegrationsansatz, mit dem diese Frage im Regelfall analysiert wird, deutlich erweitert. Dieser Ansatz erlaubt die Identifikation der persistenten Komponente der Geldumlaufsgeschwindigkeit und des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Aufbauend auf dem Zustandsraummodell erfolgt über Vorzeichenrestriktionen die Identifikation struktureller Schocks auf die 'Signalgleichungen', welche die Entwicklung von Geldmengenwachstum, Inflation und Wachstum beschreiben. Durch die Verwendung eines so genannten Divisa Geldmengenaggregats wird gleichzeitig der Möglichkeit Rechnung getragen, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen Geld und Preisen durch Messfehler einfacher Geldmengenaggregate verzerrt wird. Die Resultate zeigen, dass ein quantitätstheoretischer Zusammenhang im Sinne eines maßgeblichen Zusammenhangs von Geld und Preisen bei Verwendung eines angemessenen Geldmengenaggregats klar erkennbar ist

Postmenopausal Women With Greater Paracardial Fat Have More Coronary Artery Calcification Than Premenopausal Women: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Cardiovascular Fat Ancillary Study.

BackgroundVolumes of paracardial adipose tissue (PAT) and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) are greater after menopause. Interestingly, PAT but not EAT is associated with estradiol decline, suggesting a potential role of menopause in PAT accumulation. We assessed whether volumes of heart fat depot (EAT and PAT) were associated with coronary artery calcification (CAC) in women at midlife and whether these associations were modified by menopausal status and estradiol levels.Methods and resultsEAT and PAT volumes and CAC were measured using electron beam computed tomography scans. CAC was evaluated as (1) the presence of CAC (CAC Agatston score ≥10) and (2) the extent of any CAC (log CAC Agatston score >0). The study included 478 women aged 50.9 years (58% pre- or early perimenopausal, 10% late perimenopausal, and 32% postmenopausal). EAT was significantly associated with CAC measures, and these associations were not modified by menopausal status or estradiol. In contrast, associations between PAT and CAC measures were modified by menopausal status (interaction-P≤0.01). Independent of study covariates including other adiposity measures, each 1-SD unit increase in log PAT was associated with 102% higher risk of CAC presence (P=0.04) and an 80% increase in CAC extent (P=0.008) in postmenopausal women compared with pre- or early perimenopausal women. Additional adjustment for estradiol and hormone therapy attenuated these differences. Moreover, the association between PAT and CAC extent was stronger in women with lower estradiol levels (interaction P=0.004).ConclusionsThe findings suggest that PAT is a potential menopause-specific coronary artery disease risk marker, supporting the need to monitor and target this fat depot for intervention in women at midlife