Improving seasonal forecasting through tropical ocean bias corrections

Initialisation shock is often discussed in the context of coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasting, but its detection has remained elusive. In this paper, the presence of initialisation shock in seasonal forecasts is clearly identified in the variability of the tropical thermocline. The specific source of shock studied here is the use of a bias correction procedure to account for errors in equatorial wind stress forcing during ocean initialisation. It is shown that the abrupt removal of the bias correction at the beginning of the forecast leads to rapid adjustments in the upper ocean, creating a shock that remains in the system for at least three months. By contrast, gradual removal of the correction term, over 20 days, greatly reduces the initialisation shock. Evidence is presented of substantial increases in sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal forecast skill, at around 3–7 months’ lead time, when the gradual removal approach is used. Gains in skill of up to 0.05, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient for SST in the Nino4 region, are found, using a modest hindcast set covering four seasonal start dates. The results show that improvements in coupled initialisation aimed at reducing shocks may considerably benefit seasonal forecasting

Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed

In vitro and ex vivo evaluation of N‐methyl benzilates as potential PET agents for muscarinic receptors

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90199/1/25802601207_ftp.pd

Routine synthesis of N-[11C-methyl]scopolamine by phosphite mediated reductive methylation with [11C]formaldehyde

A synthesis of [11C]scopolamine capable of clinical delivery of this agent in high specific activity is described. The precursor [11C]formaldehyde was produced by catalytic oxidation of [11C]CH3OH over metallic silver and was used to N-11C-methylate norscopolamine using aqueous neutral potassium phosphite as the reducing agent. The labeling reaction was complete after 5 min at 75-80[deg]C and the [11C]scopolamine (99% radiochemical purity) was isolated by preparative HPLC. Total synthesis time is less than 45 min. Decay corrected radiochemical yields from [11C]CO2 are presently 20-43%.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27552/1/0000596.pd

Regional brain distribution of [18F]GBR 13119, a dopamine uptake inhibitor, in CD-1 and C57BL/6 mice

We have examines the regional brain distribution of [18F]GBR 13119 (18F: [beta]+, T1/2 = 110 min), a dopamine uptake inhibitor, in CD-1 and C57BL/6 mice. High levels of binding are observed in the striatum of both species, with striatum/cerebellum ratios of 3-4 at 60 min after injection of the radiotracer. Striatum radioactivity and striatum/cerebellum ratios are more than 50% reduced in C57BL/6 mice treated chronically with the neurotoxin MPTP. We conclude mice are an appropriate model for the in vivo study of the dopamine uptake system, and that [18F]GBR 13119 may be a suitable in vivo marker for degeneration of striatal dopaminergic neurons.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27847/1/0000258.pd

Routine production of 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro--glucose by direct nucleophilic exchange on a quaternary 4-aminopyridinium resin

Resin-supported [18F]fluoride ion has been prepared and applied to a rapid, convenient synthesis of [18F]FDG. "No-carrier-added" [18F]fluoride ion is collected on a quaternary 4-(N, N-dialkylamino)-pyridinium functionalized polystyrene anion exchange resin directly from a [18O]water target, dried by rinsing with acetonitrile, and then reacted with 1,3,4,6-tetra-O-acetyl-2-O-trifluoromethanesulfonyl-[beta]--mannopyrannose. Acidic hydrolysis yields [18F]FDG in a synthesis time of 40 min with overall yields presently averaging above 50%.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/28859/1/0000694.pd