Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data

Frank Berger and Keith Phillips propose a new two-step method of seasonally adjusting state Current Employment Statistics (CES) data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This method, first proposed in the July/August 1993 issue of Southwest Economy, recently was adopted by the BLS to seasonally adjust the broadest industry groupings of the state employment series. With this new adjustment procedure, the state employment data should be smoother and better reflect trend-cycle movements than if a more traditional seasonal adjustment method were used. ; The article finds that forty-six states suffer a break in their seasonal pattern toward the end of the data series. The authors explain the reason for the break and describe a procedure to adjust for it. Although the BLS is currently using this procedure for states at the broadest level of industry detail, analysts who want to seasonally adjust the state employment data at a finer level of industry detail should find the authors' description of the process useful. Also, analysts who seek to seasonally adjust the CES data for metropolitan areas may find the two-step method helpful.Employment (Economic theory)

A new quarterly output measure for Texas

Real gross domestic product is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. business cycle. Yet at the state level, output measures are rarely used to track business conditions. Although the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates real gross state product (RGSP), the long release lag (usually about two and one-half years after the reporting year) and the annual periodicity of the data severely limit its usefulness. ; In this article, Frank Berger and Keith Phillips find that movements in quarterly personal income and various price measures can accurately explain movements in total Texas RGSP and in eleven broad industry groupings. Based on these findings, Berger and Phillips create quarterly measures of total and industry-specific Texas RGSP that will be available about four months after the reporting quarter. The new series represents a comprehensive measure of economic activity in the state that can be used along with other timely indicators, such as nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate, to gauge current business conditions.Regional economics ; Texas

Phenomenological Constraints on Axion Models of Dynamical Dark Matter

In two recent papers (arXiv:1106.4546, arXiv:1107.0721), we introduced "dynamical dark matter" (DDM), a new framework for dark-matter physics in which the requirement of stability is replaced by a delicate balancing between lifetimes and cosmological abundances across a vast ensemble of individual dark-matter components whose collective behavior transcends that normally associated with traditional dark-matter candidates. We also presented an explicit model involving axions in large extra spacetime dimensions, and demonstrated that this model has all of the features necessary to constitute a viable realization of the general DDM framework. In this paper, we complete our study by performing a general analysis of all phenomenological constraints which are relevant to this bulk-axion DDM model. Although the analysis in this paper is primarily aimed at our specific DDM model, many of our findings have important implications for bulk axion theories in general. Our analysis can also serve as a prototype for phenomenological studies of theories in which there exist large numbers of interacting and decaying particles.Comment: 48 pages, LaTeX, 13 figures, 1 tabl

Digital control of magnetic bearings supporting a multimass flexible rotor

The characteristics of magnetic bearings used to support a three mass flexible rotor operated at speeds up to 14,000 RPM are discussed. The magnetic components of the bearing are of a type reported in the literature previously, but the earlier analog controls were replaced by digital ones. Analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog converters and digital control software were installed in an AT&T PC. This PC-based digital controller was used to operate one of the magnetic bearings on the test rig. Basic proportional-derivative control was applied to the bearings, and the bearing stiffness and damping characteristics were evaluated. Particular attention is paid to the frequency dependent behavior of the stiffness and damping properties, and comparisons are made between the actual controllers and ideal proportional-derivative control

A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses

Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average return on assets on average. Stochastic dominance tests of the distribution of economic returns from aquaculture and agricultural farm types showed salmon farming to be the most risk efficient alternative and salmon farming was most attractive from an investor’s perspective.Risk analysis, variability, Norway, Risk and Uncertainty,

A New Pathway for the Preparation of Highly Qualified Teachers: The Master of Arts in Teaching (MAT)

This article reports on the development and initial implementation of a Master of Arts in Teaching (MAT) degree, an accelerated graduate program that encourages and scaffolds individuals with existing disciplinary expertise in entering the teaching profession. First, the context for developing the program is outlined. Next, the unique structure of the 15-month program, which consists of three blocks, is described. Expectations about students are then shared, quality control features of the program are highlighted, and the lessons we learned about program development and implementation are detailed. Finally, thoughts about the future of this program and others of its type are shared based upon our experience