Estimating the referral rate for cancer genetic assessment from a systematic review of the evidence

To estimate the optimal proportion of new patients diagnosed with cancer who require assessment and evaluation for familial cancer genetic risk, based on the best evidence available. We identified evidence of the patients who require assessment for familial genetic risk when diagnosed with cancer through extensive literature reviews and searches of guidelines. Epidemiological data on the distribution of cancer type, presence of a family history, age and other factors that influence referral for genetic assessment were identified. Decision trees were constructed to merge the evidence-based recommendations with the epidemiological data to calculate the optimal proportion of patients who should be referred. We identified ‘high probability' and ‘moderate probability' groups for having a genetic susceptibility. The proportion of patients diagnosed with cancer in Australia who have a high probability of having a genetic predisposition and who should be referred for genetic assessment is 1%. If the moderate probability group is also assessed this proportion increases to 6%. This model has identified the proportion of new patients diagnosed with cancer who should be referred for genetic assessment. This data is the first step in determining the resources required for provision of an adequate cancer genetic service

Prostate Cancer Postoperative Nomogram Scores and Obesity

Nomograms are tools used in clinical practice to predict cancer outcomes and to help make decisions regarding management of disease. Since its conception, utility of the prostate cancer nomogram has more than tripled. Limited information is available on the relation between the nomograms' predicted probabilities and obesity. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the predictions from a validated postoperative prostate cancer nomogram were associated with obesity.We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of 1220 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) in southern California from 2000 to 2008. Progression-free probabilities (PFPs) were ascertained from the 10-year Kattan postoperative nomogram. Multivariable logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).In the present study, aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason ≥7), but not advanced stage, was associated with obesity (p = 0.01). After adjusting for age, black race, family history of prostate cancer and current smoking, an inverse association was observed for 10-year progression-free predictions (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.28–0.90) and positive associations were observed for preoperative PSA levels (OR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.01–1.50) and Gleason >7 (OR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.11–1.90).Obese RP patients were more likely to have lower PFP values than non-obese patients, suggesting a higher risk of experiencing prostate cancer progression. Identifying men with potentially higher risks due to obesity may improve disease prognosis and treatment decision-making

CAG repeat length in the androgen receptor gene is related to age at diagnosis of prostate cancer and response to endocrine therapy, but not to prostate cancer risk

The length of the polymorphic CAG repeat in the N-terminal of the androgen receptor (AR) gene is inversely correlated with the transactivation function of the AR. Some studies have indicated that short CAG repeats are related to higher risk of prostate cancer. We performed a case–control study to investigate relations between CAG repeat length and prostate cancer risk, tumour grade, tumour stage, age at diagnosis and response to endocrine therapy. The study included 190 AR alleles from prostate cancer patients and 186 AR alleles from female control subjects. All were whites from southern Sweden. The frequency distribution of CAG repeat length was strikingly similar for cases and controls, and no significant correlation between CAG repeat length and prostate cancer risk was detected. However, for men with non-hereditary prostate cancer (n = 160), shorter CAG repeats correlated with younger age at diagnosis (P = 0.03). There were also trends toward associations between short CAG repeats and high grade (P = 0.07) and high stage (P = 0.07) disease. Furthermore, we found that patients with long CAG repeats responded better to endocrine therapy, even after adjusting for pretreatment level of prostate-specific antigen and tumour grade and stage (P = 0.05). We conclude that short CAG repeats in the AR gene correlate with young age at diagnosis of prostate cancer, but not with higher risk of the disease. Selection of patients with early onset prostate cancer in case–control studies could therefore lead to an over-estimation of the risk of prostate cancer for men with short CAG repeats. An association between long CAG repeats and good response to endocrine therapy was also found, but the mechanism and clinical relevance are unclear. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

A four-kallikrein panel for the prediction of repeat prostate biopsy: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Rotterdam, Netherlands

Background: Most men with elevated levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) do not have prostate cancer, leading to a large number of unnecessary biopsies. A statistical model based on a panel of four kallikreins has been shown to predict the outcome of a first prostate biopsy. In this study, we apply the model to an independent data set of men with previous negative biopsy but persistently elevated PSA. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 925 men with a previous negative prostate biopsy and elevated PSA (≥3 ng ml-1), with 110 prostate cancers detected (12%). A previously published statistical model was applied, with recalibration to reflect the lower positive biopsy rates on rebiopsy. Results: The full-kallikrein panel had higher discriminative accuracy than PSA and DRE alone, with area under the curve (AUC) improving from 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 0.64) to 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.74), P<0.001, and high-grade cancer (Gleason 7) at biopsy with AUC improving from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.89) to 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.94), P<0.003). Application of the panel to 1000 men with persistently elevated PSA after initial negative biopsy, at a 15% risk threshold would reduce the number of biopsies by 712; would miss (or delay) the diagnosis of 53 cancers, of which only 3 would be Gleason 7 and the rest Gleason 6 or less. Conclusions: Our data constitute an external validation of a previously published model. The four-kallikrein panel predicts the result of repeat prostate biopsy in men with elevated PSA while dramatically decreasing unnecessary biopsies