Allocation, incentives and distortions: the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector

The allowance allocation under the European Emission trading schemes differs fundamentally from earlier cap and trade programs, like SO2 and NOx in the USA. Because of the iterative nature of negotiations of the overall budget, the allocation also has to follow an iterative process. If power generators anticipate that their current behaviour will affect future allowance allocation, then this can distort today’s decisions. Furthermore, the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) contain multiple provisions dealing with existing installations, what happens to allocation when they close, and allocations to new entrants. We provide a framework to assess the economic incentives and distortions that provisions in NAPs can have on market prices, operation and investment decisions. To this end, we use both analytic models to illustrate the incentives effects and results from numerical simulation runs that estimate the magnitude of impacts from different allocation rules

Impact of the allowance allocation on prices and efficiency

Successful cap and trade programs for SO2 and NOx in the US allocate allowances to large emitters based on a historic base line for a period of up to thirty years. National Allocation Plans in Europe allocate CO2 allowances in an iterative approach first for a three then for a five-year period. The potential updating of the base line creates perverse incentives for operation and investment. Some allowances are also reserved for new entrants further distorting the scheme. We use analytic models and numeric simulations for the UK power sector to illustrate and quantify how these effects contribute to an inflation of the allowance price while reducing utilisation and investment in efficient technologies. The inflated allowance prices are likely to increase the European allowance budget and emissions, e.g. through the Linking Directive. As a result opportunity costs of emitting CO2 are reduced relative to an efficient cap and trade program

Modelling Wind in the Electricity Sector

We represent hourly, regional an wind data and transmission constraints in an investment planning model calibrated to the UK and test sensitivities of least cost expansions to fuel and technology prices. Thus we can calculate the value of transmission expansions to the system. We represent limited public acceptance of wind and regional network constraints by maximum built rates per region and year. Thus we calculate the marginal value of improved planning and grid connection regimes. It is likely that some constraints will remain. Market designs that do not allow for regional differentiation to reflect transmission and planning constraints can increase overall costs to consumers

Allocation of Carbon Emission Certificates in the Power Sector: How generators profitfrom grandfathered rights

To meet its Kyoto requirements, the EU will establish an internal market for carbon dioxideallowances from 2005, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). National governments are to allocate most of these allowances for free. The analysis shows that as a result the net value of both a typical pulverised coal-fired (PC) power station and a more modern gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) will increase. We show that in future allocation rounds a greater proportion of allowances can and should be auctioned. The paper also analyses the interactions with the Large Combustion Plant Directive, which limits SO2 and NOx emission

Space and Time: Wind in an Investment Planning Model

Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the applicability of the models for high penetrations of renewables. We provide a methodology to capture spatial variation in wind output in combination with transmission constraints. The representation of wind distributions with stochastic approaches or an extensive historic data set would exceed computational constraints for real world application. Hence we restrict the amount of input data, and use boot-strapping to illustrate the robustness of the results. For the UK power system we model wind deployment and the value of transmission capacity

Efficacy of Postoperative Radiograph for Evaluating the Prevertebral Soft Tissue Swelling after Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

Background: After surgery for degenerative spinal disease by the anterior approach, the degree of soft tissue swelling can be assessed simply using plain radiographs. However, there are little studies according to the surgical methods or extent of surgery, and no study had addressed the clinical meaning of swelling determined by plain radiography. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical significance of prevertebral soft tissue swelling (PSTS) after anterior cervical fusion with plate fixation for the treatment of degenerative cervical spinal disorders. Methods: One hundred and thirty-five patients that underwent anterior cervical fusion with plate augmentation for degenerative cervical spondylosis were included in this study. PSTS differences were analyzed with respect to numbers of fusion segments and location of fusion. Cases were divided into two groups based on the amount of PSTS, and incidences of dyspnea, dysphagia, dysphonia were evaluated. Results: PSTS increments were significantly greater in patients that had undergone multi-level or high-level fusion. Complications of dyspnea, dysphagia and dysphonia were found more frequently in patients with marked PSTS group. Conclusions: Increments of PSTS after anterior cervical fusion for degenerative spinal disorders are greater and incidences of complications are higher in patients that undergo multi-level or high-level fusion. Thus, measurement of PSTS using consecutive cervical lateral radiographs after anterior cervical surgery is clinically meaningful procedure

Cell Dispersal Influences Tumor Heterogeneity and Introduces a Bias in NGS Data Interpretation

Short and long distance cell dispersal can have a marked effect on tumor structure, high cellular motility could lead to faster cell mixing and lower observable intratumor heterogeneity. Here we evaluated a model for cell mixing that investigates how short-range dispersal and cell turnover will account for mutational proportions. We show that cancer cells can penetrate neighboring and distinct areas in a matter of days. In next generation sequencing runs, higher proportions of a given cell line generated frequencies with higher precision, while mixtures with lower amounts of each cell line had lower precision manifesting in higher standard deviations. When multiple cell lines were co-cultured, cellular movement altered observed mutation frequency by up to 18.5%. We propose that some of the shared mutations detected at low allele frequencies represent highly motile clones that appear in multiple regions of a tumor owing to dispersion throughout the tumor. In brief, cell movement will lead to a significant technical (sampling) bias when using next generation sequencing to determine clonal composition. A possible solution to this drawback would be to radically decrease detection thresholds and increase coverage in NGS analyses. © 2017 The Author(s)

A Role for Alström Syndrome Protein, Alms1, in Kidney Ciliogenesis and Cellular Quiescence

Premature truncation alleles in the ALMS1 gene are a frequent cause of human Alström syndrome. Alström syndrome is a rare disorder characterized by early obesity and sensory impairment, symptoms shared with other genetic diseases affecting proteins of the primary cilium. ALMS1 localizes to centrosomes and ciliary basal bodies, but truncation mutations in Alms1/ALMS1 do not preclude formation of cilia. Here, we show that in vitro knockdown of Alms1 in mice causes stunted cilia on kidney epithelial cells and prevents these cells from increasing calcium influx in response to mechanical stimuli. The stunted-cilium phenotype can be rescued with a 5′ fragment of the Alms1 cDNA, which resembles disease-associated alleles. In a mouse model of Alström syndrome, Alms1 protein can be stably expressed from the mutant allele and is required for cilia formation in primary cells. Aged mice developed specific loss of cilia from the kidney proximal tubules, which is associated with foci of apoptosis or proliferation. As renal failure is a common cause of mortality in Alström syndrome patients, we conclude that this disease should be considered as a further example of the class of renal ciliopathies: wild-type or mutant alleles of the Alström syndrome gene can support normal kidney ciliogenesis in vitro and in vivo, but mutant alleles are associated with age-dependent loss of kidney primary cilia