A framework for comparative analysis of belgrade housing stock - determinants of carbon reduction strategy

Approximately 33% of total annual energy consumption and carbon emission in Belgrade (Serbia) are related to the housing sector. As such, the housing sector represents a key determinant in the development of an overall national carbon reduction strategy. The development of an effective carbon reduction strategy increasingly requires use and development of detailed predictive tools. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to review the state of the art bottom-up housing stock models, and briefly comment on the use of various building simulation tools in building stock modelling focusing on the housing sector, (b) to provide a conceptual algorithm for the disaggregated physically based bottom-up energy and carbon emission modelling of the housing stock in Belgrade. The suggested algorithm has been constructed around three separate components which will be created and analysed during the course of this project: a) a data module which contains information on various energy related characteristics of Belgrade's housing stock, such as urban layout, building envelope and building services; b) a data module based on a comprehensive monitoring campaign of selected dwellings in Belgrade, and c) a data module based on comprehensive modelling scenarios which will be carried out using a whole building zonal model such as 'Energy Plus'. The suggested algorithm has been designed having in mind that the results of the modelling have to be easily translated into an easy to implement carbon reduction policy

Numerical simulation of energy consumption optimization in residential buildings in Belgrade

This paper presents heat consumption optimization and possibility to increase energy efficiency of Belgrade residential buildings. Residential buildings were selected according to the year of construction and type of building (multi apartment buildings and single family houses). Numerical simulation was applied to investigate heat consumption of buildings' zero model which represents buildings' current state. Numerical simulations were performed for typical meteorological year conditions for Belgrade city area. In this calculation, building surroundings, outside heat transfer coefficient (which depends on local weather conditions) and inside heat transfer coefficient (according to the type of walls) were taken in account. The validation of zero model is based on measured and calculated inside air temperature in considered objects. The influence of improved building envelope on heat consumption, compared to building zero model, was investigated by adding insulation and/or by replacement existing windows with those with better thermal characteristics. The energy consumption was numerically simulated over whole heating season. The energy efficiency increase calculations showed possibility for saving heating energy from 10% to 80%. This conclusion was obtained by comparing four different scenarios of improved building envelope with basic zero model for four modeling objects (two multi apartment buildings and two single family houses). Results indicate that focus of energy savings should be on how to decrease energy consumption in households sector. Additionally, solar energy use for two different objects (PV cells were applied for multi apartment building and solar thermal collectors for single family house) was numerically simulated

A framework for comparative analysis of belgrade housing stock - determinants of carbon reduction strategy

Approximately 33% of total annual energy consumption and carbon emission in Belgrade (Serbia) are related to the housing sector. As such, the housing sector represents a key determinant in the development of an overall national carbon reduction strategy. The development of an effective carbon reduction strategy increasingly requires use and development of detailed predictive tools. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to review the state of the art bottom-up housing stock models, and briefly comment on the use of various building simulation tools in building stock modelling focusing on the housing sector, (b) to provide a conceptual algorithm for the disaggregated physically based bottom-up energy and carbon emission modelling of the housing stock in Belgrade. The suggested algorithm has been constructed around three separate components which will be created and analysed during the course of this project: a) a data module which contains information on various energy related characteristics of Belgrade's housing stock, such as urban layout, building envelope and building services; b) a data module based on a comprehensive monitoring campaign of selected dwellings in Belgrade, and c) a data module based on comprehensive modelling scenarios which will be carried out using a whole building zonal model such as 'Energy Plus'. The suggested algorithm has been designed having in mind that the results of the modelling have to be easily translated into an easy to implement carbon reduction policy

Uncertainty and modeling energy consumption: Sensitivity analysis for a city-scale domestic energy model

This paper presents the development and evaluation of the Belgrade Domestic Energy Model (BEDEM) for predicting the energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the existing housing stock. The distribution of energy use in relation to the end use is estimated as: space heating, 71%; light and appliances, 15%; water heating, 9%; and cooking 5%, while the distribution of CO2 emissions is space heating, 59%; light and appliances, 22%; water heating, 13%; and cooking 6%. Local sensitivity analysis is carried out for dwellings of different type and year built, and the largest normalized sensitivity coefficients were calculated for parameters which almost exclusively influence space heating energy consumption in housing. For all input parameters under investigation, the effects of the input uncertainty were linear for a moderate range of input change (Delta x=+/- 10%) and superposable for a small range of input change (Delta x=+/- 1%). However, the non-linear and non-additive properties of some input parameters over the wider range hinder the development of a simple but reliable model for estimating energy and CO2 reductions. The findings show that the uncertainty in the stock models predictions can be large and more work is needed in the area of the predictive uncertainty of stock models

A review of bottom-up building stock models for energy consumption in the residential sector

Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO(2) emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO(2) emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock - UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy-health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption - how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures