Haplotype-based association analysis of the MAPT locus in Late Onset Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND: Late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) is a common sporadic form of the illness, affecting individuals above the age of 65 yrs. A prominent hypothesis for the aetiopathology of Alzheimer's disease is that in the presence of a β-amyloid load, individuals expressing a pathogenic form of tau protein (MAPT) are at increased risk for developing the disease. Genetic studies in this pursuit have, however, yielded conflicting results. A recent study showed a significant haplotype association (H1c) with AD. The current study is an attempt to replicate this association in an independently ascertained cohort. RESULTS: In this report we present the findings of a haplotype analysis at the MAPT locus. We failed to detect evidence of association of the H1c haplotype at the MAPT locus with LOAD. None of the six SNPs forming the H1c haplotype showed evidence of association with disease. In addition, nested clade analysis suggested the presence of independent mutations at multiple points in the haplotype network or homoplasy at the MAPT locus. Such homoplasy can confound single SNP tests for association. We do not detect evidence that the set of SNPs forming the H1c haplotype in general or rs242557 in particular are pathogenic for LOAD. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we employed two contemporary haplotype analysis tools to perform haplotype association analysis at the MAPT locus. Our data suggest that the tagged SNPs forming the H1c haplotype do not have a causal role in the pathogenesis of LOAD

Quantifying land surface temperature variability for two Sahelian mesoscale regions during the wet season

Land-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in the weather and climate of many semi-arid regions. These feedbacks are strongly controlled by how the surface responds to precipitation events, which regulate the return of heat and moisture to the atmosphere. Characteristics of the surface can result in both differing amplitudes and rates of warming following rain. We used spectral analysis to quantify these surface responses to rainfall events using land surface temperature (LST) derived from Earth Observations (EO). We analysed two mesoscale regions in the Sahel and identified distinct differences in the strength of the short-term (< 5–day) spectral variance, notably a shift towards lower frequency variability in forest pixels relative to non-forest areas, and an increase in amplitude with decreasing vegetation cover. Consistent with these spectral signatures, we found that areas of forest, and to a lesser extent grassland regions, warm up more slowly than sparsely vegetated or barren pixels. We applied the same spectral analysis method to simulated LST data from the the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. We found a reasonable level of agreement with the EO spectral analysis, for two contrasting land surface regions. However JULES shows a significant underestimate in the magnitude of the observed response to rain compared to EO. A sensitivity analysis of the JULES model highlights an unrealistically high level of soil water availability as a key deficiency, which dampens the models response to rainfall events

Thirty-eight years of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems

Climate change is projected to increase the imbalance between the supply (precipitation) and atmospheric demand for water (i.e., increased potential evapotranspiration), stressing plants in water-limited environments. Plants may be able to offset increasing aridity because rising CO2 increases water use efficiency. CO2 fertilization has also been cited as one of the drivers of the widespread "greening" phenomenon. However, attributing the size of this CO2 fertilization effect is complicated, due in part to a lack of long-term vegetation monitoring and interannual- to decadalscale climate variability. In this study we asked the question of how much CO2 has contributed towards greening. We focused our analysis on a broad aridity gradient spanning eastern Australia's woody ecosystems. Next we analyzed 38 years of satellite remote sensing estimates of vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) to examine the role of CO2 in ameliorating climate change impacts. Multiple statistical techniques were applied to separate the CO2-attributable effects on greening from the changes in water supply and atmospheric aridity. Widespread vegetation greening occurred despite a warming climate, increases in vapor pressure deficit, and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Between 1982-2019 we found that NDVI increased (median 11.3 %) across 90.5 % of the woody regions. After masking disturbance effects (e.g., fire), we statistically estimated an 11.7 % increase in NDVI attributable to CO2, broadly consistent with a hypothesized theoretical expectation of an 8.6 % increase in water use efficiency due to rising CO2. In contrast to reports of a weakening CO2 fertilization effect, we found no consistent temporal change in the CO2 effect. We conclude rising CO2 has mitigated the effects of increasing aridity, repeated record-breaking droughts, and record-breaking heat waves in eastern Australia. However, we were unable to determine whether trees or grasses were the primary beneficiary of the CO2-induced change in water use efficiency, which has implications for projecting future ecosystem resilience. A more complete understanding of how CO2-induced changes in water use efficiency affect trees and non-tree vegetation is needed

Advances in land surface modelling

Land surface models have an increasing scope. Initially designed to capture the feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere as part of weather and climate prediction, they are now used as a critical tool in the urgent need to inform policy about land-use and water-use management in a world that is changing physically and economically. This paper outlines the way that models have evolved through this change of purpose and what might the future hold. It highlights the importance of distinguishing between advances in the science within the modelling components, with the advances of how to represent their interaction. This latter aspect of modelling is often overlooked but will increasingly manifest as an issue as the complexity of the system, the time and space scales of the system being modelled increase. These increases are due to technology, data availability and the urgency and range of the problems being studied. © 2021, The Author(s)

Does predictability of fluxes vary between FLUXNET sites?

The FLUXNET dataset contains eddy covariance measurements from across the globe and represents an invaluable estimate of the fluxes of energy, water, and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. While there is an expectation that the broad range of site characteristics in FLUXNET result in a diversity of flux behaviour, there has been little exploration of how predictable site behaviour is across the network. Here, 155 datasets with 30&thinsp;min temporal resolution from the Tier 1 of FLUXNET 2015 were analysed in a first attempt to assess individual site predictability. We defined site uniqueness as the disparity in performance between multiple empirical models trained globally and locally for each site and used this along with the mean performance as measures of predictability. We then tested how strongly uniqueness was determined by various site characteristics, including climatology, vegetation type, and data quality. The strongest determinant of predictability appeared to be that drier sites tended to be more unique. We found very few other clear predictors of uniqueness across different sites, in particular little evidence that flux behaviour was well discretised by vegetation type. Data length and quality also appeared to have little impact on uniqueness. While this result might relate to our definition of uniqueness, we argue that our approach provides a useful basis for site selection in LSM evaluation, and we invite critique and development of the methodology.</p