16 research outputs found
Quantile Time Series Regression Models Revisited
This article discusses recent developments in the literature of quantile time
series models in the cases of stationary and nonstationary underline stochastic
processes
Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models
This set of lecture notes discuss key concepts for the Structural Analysis of
Vector Autoregressive models for the teaching of a course on Applied
Macroeconometrics with Advanced Topics.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1609.06029 by other author
Optimal Estimation Methodologies for Panel Data Regression Models
This survey study discusses main aspects to optimal estimation methodologies
for panel data regression models. In particular, we present current
methodological developments for modeling stationary panel data as well as
robust methods for estimation and inference in nonstationary panel data
regression models. Some applications from the network econometrics and high
dimensional statistics literature are also discussed within a stationary time
series environment
Unified Inference for Dynamic Quantile Predictive Regression
This paper develops unified asymptotic distribution theory for dynamic
quantile predictive regressions which is useful when examining quantile
predictability in stock returns under possible presence of nonstationarity.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2308.0661
Statistical Estimation for Covariance Structures with Tail Estimates using Nodewise Quantile Predictive Regression Models
This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail
estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk
matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in
a portfolio using quantile predictive regression models without assuming the
presence of nonstationary regressors and; (ii) the construction of a novel
variable selection algorithm, so-called, Feature Ordering by Centrality
Exclusion (FOCE), which is based on an assumption-lean regression framework,
has no tuning parameters and is proved to be consistent under general sparsity
assumptions. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposed methodology with
numerical studies of real and simulated datasets when modelling systemic risk
in a network
Limit Theory under Network Dependence and Nonstationarity
These lecture notes represent supplementary material for a short course on
time series econometrics and network econometrics. We give emphasis on limit
theory for time series regression models as well as the use of the
local-to-unity parametrization when modeling time series nonstationarity.
Moreover, we present various non-asymptotic theory results for moderate
deviation principles when considering the eigenvalues of covariance matrices as
well as asymptotics for unit root moderate deviations in nonstationary
autoregressive processes. Although not all applications from the literature are
covered we also discuss some open problems in the time series and network
econometrics literature.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1705.08413 by other author
Asymptotic Theory for Moderate Deviations from the Unit Boundary in Quantile Autoregressive Time Series
We establish the asymptotic theory in quantile autoregression when the model
parameter is specified with respect to moderate deviations from the unit
boundary of the form (1 + c / k) with a convergence sequence that diverges at a
rate slower than the sample size n. Then, extending the framework proposed by
Phillips and Magdalinos (2007), we consider the limit theory for the
near-stationary and the near-explosive cases when the model is estimated with a
conditional quantile specification function and model parameters are
quantile-dependent. Additionally, a Bahadur-type representation and limiting
distributions based on the M-estimators of the model parameters are derived.
Specifically, we show that the serial correlation coefficient converges in
distribution to a ratio of two independent random variables. Monte Carlo
simulations illustrate the finite-sample performance of the estimation
procedure under investigation
Aspects of estimation and inference for predictive regression models
This PhD thesis presents three essays on nonstationary time series econometrics which are grouped into three chapters. The chapters cover aspects of estimation and inference for predictive regression models through the lens of moderate deviation principles from the unit root boundary in a class of stable but nearly-unstable processes which exhibit high persistence. The first chapter presents an overview of the research background which includes the persistence classes and the main asymptotic properties of estimators for nonstationary autoregressive processes. The persistence properties of time series is modelled via the local-to-unity parametrization which implies that the autoregressive coefficient is specified such that it approaches the unit boundary as the sample size increases. The second part of the chapter summarizes the structure of the thesis and the main contributions to the literature. The second chapter, proposes an econometric framework for predictability testing in linear predictive regression models robust against parameter instability. In particular, the asymptotic theory for the proposed sup-Wald test statistics when regressors are assumed to be mildly integrated and persistent stochastic processes is established. The asymptotic theory of OLS and IVX based estimators and test statistics presented in this thesis is developed based on standard local-to-unity asymptotics and the limit theory of triangular arrays of martingales. The third chapter, addresses the aspect of structural break detection for nonstationary time series when a conditional quantile specification form is used. In particular, the proposed econometric framework is suitable for testing for a structural break at unknown time in nonstationary quantile predictive regression models and can be further employed for investigating the aspect of quantile predictability against parameter instability. The fourth chapter, proposes a novel estimation and inference methodology in systems of quantile predictive regressions with generated regressors. This econometric framework allows to address the issue of modelling systemic risk in financial networks when considering the interplay between network-type of dependence and time series non stationarity
Treatment effect validation via a permutation test in Stata
In this paper we describe the testing procedure for assessing the statistical significance of treatment effect under the experimental conditions of baseline imbalance across covariates and attrition from the survey, using the permutation tests proposed by Freedman and Lane (1983) and Romano and Wolf (2016). We discuss the testing procedure for these hypotheses based on a linear regression model and introduce the new Stata command [R] permtest for the implementation of the permutation test in Stata. Moreover, we investigate the finite-sample performance as well as the statistical validity of the test with a Monte Carlo simulation study in which we examine the empirical size and power properties under the conditions of baseline imbalance and attrition for a fixed number of permutation steps
Forecast evaluation in large cross-sections of realized volatility
In this paper, we consider the forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures under cross-section dependence using equal predictive accuracy testing procedures. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model based on the augmented cross-section when forecasting Realized Volatility. Under the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy the benchmark model employed is a standard HAR model while under the alternative of non-equal predictive accuracy the forecast model is an augmented HAR model estimated via the LASSO shrinkage. We study the sensitivity of forecasts to the model specification by incorporating a measurement error correction as well as cross-sectional jump component measures. The out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the models is assessed with numerical implementations