The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Respiratory health and eruptions of the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo are active volcanoes situated close to Goma (North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo). These volcanoes are among the most prolific sources of volcanic SO2 pollution on earth. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the possible spatiotemporal relationships between volcanic degassing represented by eruptive emissions of SO2 that occurred between 2000 and 2010, and the incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (ARS) in populations living in areas up to more than 100 km from the volcanoes. METHODOLOGY: The total flux of SO2 emitted during eruptions since 2000 and the average spatial distribution of the volcanic plume (2004-2008) were based on publicly available remote sensing data. The monthly numbers of adults and children reporting acute respiratory symptoms were extracted from health data collected routinely by selected local health centres and hospitals between 2000 and 2010. The monthly numbers of persons with ARS recorded during or after eruptions were compared with those recorded before eruptions, using negative binomial regression models allowing the calculation of incidence rate ratios (IRR) and their 95% confidence intervals. We first compared years with and without eruptions and then considered shorter time-windows (months). RESULTS: In the investigated area, ARS were the second most frequent cause of medical visits (12.2%, n = 3.2 million cases), after malaria (32.3%, n = 8.4 million cases). SO2 emissions gradually increased 30 to 50 times in 2010 compared to 2002. Taking 1999 as a reference, the IRR for ARS increased three-fold between 2000 [0.9 (0.8, 1.1)] and 2009 [2.8 (2.2, 3.7)]. Although the incidence of ARS appeared to increase after some eruptions, especially in areas close (< 26 km) to the volcanoes, we did not find a consistent temporal association between the yearly incidence of ARS and volcanic eruptions when considering the entire observation period. When we analysed shorter time-windows (6 months in the year preceding an eruption), we observed increased ARS incidences in eruptive months, except in 2010. IRRs were increased for centres situated close to volcanoes (< 26 km) in 2001 and 2002. CONCLUSION: ARS incident cases increased over the years in populations living around the Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, but we found no consistent evidence for an association between the yearly incidence of ARS and volcanic eruptions or the intensity of SO2 emissions, possibly because of interference with man-made events, including massive population displacements caused by insecurity in the area. Nevertheless, some evidence was found for increased incidence of ARS following eruptions, especially in areas close to volcanoes. Assessing personal, ground level exposure to SO2 and particulates with adequate controlling for confounding, such as viral and other infections, could clarify the contribution, if any, of volcanic emissions of SO2 to the high burden of respiratory diseases in this region.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis/Rifampicin-Detected Rifampicin Resistance is a Suboptimal Surrogate for Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: Diagnostic and Clinical Implications

BACKGROUND: Rifampicin (RIF) resistance is highly correlated with isoniazid (INH) resistance and used as proxy for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Using MTBDRplus as a comparator, we evaluated the predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert)-detected RIF resistance for MDR-TB in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study involving data from new or retreatment pulmonary adult TB cases evaluated between July 2013 and December 2016. Separate, paired sputa for smear microscopy and MTBDRplus were collected. Xpert testing was performed subject to the availability of Xpert cartridges on sample remnants after microscopy. RESULTS: Among 353 patients, 193 (54.7%) were previously treated and 224 (63.5%) were MTBDRplus TB positive. Of the 224, 43 (19.2%) were RIF monoresistant, 11 (4.9%) were INH monoresistant, 53 (23.7%) had MDR-TB, and 117 (52.2%) were RIF and INH susceptible. Overall, among the 96 samples detected by MTBDRplus as RIF resistant, 53 (55.2%) had MDR-TB. Xpert testing was performed in 179 (50.7%) specimens; among these, 163 (91.1%) were TB positive and 73 (44.8%) RIF resistant. Only 45/73 (61.6%) Xpert-identified RIF-resistant isolates had concomitant MTBDRplus-detected INH resistance. Xpert had a sensitivity of 100.0% (95% CI, 92.1-100.0) for detecting RIF resistance but a positive-predictive value of only 61.6% (95% CI, 49.5-72.8) for MDR-TB. The most frequent mutations associated with RIF and INH resistance were S531L and S315T1, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this high-risk MDR-TB study population, Xpert had low positive-predictive value for the presence of MDR-TB. Comprehensive resistance testing for both INH and RIF should be performed in this setting.SCOPUS: ar.jDecretOANoAutActifinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens