Applied Matrix Population Models: Moving Toward Multiple Dimensions and Ecosystem Projection

Presented to the World Fisheries Congress (American Fisheries Society) on 03/03/2024Search for CCTE records in EPA’s Science Inventory by typing in the title at this link.https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25</p

Ketoconazole Reproduction Metrics (group spawning design).

<p>(A) Average fecundity (eggs•female^-1•day^-1). (B) Average number of eggs per spawn. A value of zero indicates that a fish did not spawn during the experiment. (C) Average number of spawns per female. Filled circles represent experimentally observed values [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref012" target="_blank">12</a>]. Boxplots represent 200 OGDM-predicted values. In the boxplots, the red line represents the median, lower and upper edges of the box are the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively, lower and upper whiskers denote the most extreme values that are not outliers (~2.7σ or 99.3 percentile for normally distributed values), and the red + symbol represents outliers.</p

Ketoconazole (ktc) Cumulative Fecundity.

<p>(A) control (0 μg ktc•L^-1); (B) 6 μg ktc•L^-1; (C) 25 μg ktc •L^-1; (D) 100 μg ktc•L^-1; and (E) 400 μg ktc•L^-1 exposure. Filled markers represent experimental data [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref012" target="_blank">12</a>]; dashed lines represent the mean of 50 cumulative fecundity OGDM predictions; solid lines represent the minimum and maximum cumulative fecundity values of 50 OGDM predictions.</p

Prochloraz Reproduction Metrics (paired spawning design).

<p>(A) Average fecundity (eggs• female^-1• day^-1). (B) Average number of eggs per spawn. A value of zero indicates that a fish did not spawn during the experiment. (C) Total number of spawns per female. Filled circles represent experimentally observed values [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref006" target="_blank">6</a>]. Boxplots represent 50 OGDM-simulated values for each fish in the treatment: 400 for controls, 300 for 30 μg •L^-1, 250 for 100 μg •L^-1, and 300 for μg •L^-1. In the boxplots, the red line represents the median, lower and upper edges of the box are the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively, lower and upper whiskers denote the most extreme values that are not outliers (~2.7σ or 99.3 percentile for normally distributed values), and the red + symbol represents outliers.</p

Prochloraz (proc) Average Cumulative Fecundity.

<p>(A) control (0 μg proc•L^-1); (B) 30 μg proc•L^-1; (C) 100 μg proc•L^-1; (D) μg proc•L^-1. Filled markers represent experimental data (cumulative fecundity divided by the number of females in a treatment group) [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref006" target="_blank">6</a>]; dashed lines represent the mean of 50 cumulative fecundity model predictions; solid lines represent the minimum and maximum values of individual cumulative fecundity out of 50 OGDM model predictions.</p

Fadrozole Reproduction Metrics (group spawning design).

<p>(A) Average fecundity (eggs•female^-1•day^-1). (B) Average number of eggs per spawn. A value of zero indicates that a fish did not spawn during the experiment. (C) Average number of spawns per female. Filled circles represent experimentally observed values [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref008" target="_blank">8</a>]. Boxplots represent 150 OGDM-predicted values. In the boxplots, the red line represents the median, lower and upper edges of the box are the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively, lower and upper whiskers denote the most extreme values that are not outliers (~2.7σ or 99.3 percentile for normally distributed values), and the red + symbol represents outliers.</p

Predicted Average Fecundity for Fathead Minnows Exposed to 17β-trenbolone (group spawning design).

<p>(A) OGDM model predictions. (B) MCSim oocyte growth dynamics model predictions. Filled circles represent experimentally observed values [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref018" target="_blank">18</a>]. Boxplots represent 150 model-simulated values (three groups of fish per treatment simulated 50 times per group). In the boxplots, the red line represents the median, lower and upper edges of the box are the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively, lower and upper whiskers denote the most extreme values that are not outliers (~2.7σ or 99.3 percentile for normally distributed values), and the red + symbol represents outliers.</p

Comparison of Reproduction Metrics for Control Fathead Minnows in a Group Spawning Design.

<p>Experimentally observed values, OGDM predictions (spawns and eggs counted separately for each fish in a group), OGDM binned predictions (multiple fish in a group spawning on the same day are summed and counted as one spawn with an egg count equal to the sum of eggs that day). (A) Average fecundity (<i>n</i> = 19). (B) Average number of eggs per spawn (<i>n</i> = 16). (C) Average number of spawns per female (<i>n</i> = 16). In the boxplots, the red line represents the median, lower and upper edges of the box are the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, respectively, lower and upper whiskers denote the most extreme values that are not outliers (~2.7σ or 99.3 percentile for normally distributed values), and the red + symbol represents outliers.</p

Fadrozole (fad) Cumulative Fecundity.

<p>Pre-exposure days reported as negative values; exposure began on day 0. (A) control (0 μg fad•L^-1); (B) 2 μg fad•L^-1 exposure; (C) 10 μg fad•L^-1 exposure. Filled markers represent experimental data [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref008" target="_blank">8</a>]; dashed lines represent the mean of 50 cumulative fecundity model predictions; solid lines represent the minimum and maximum cumulative fecundity values of 50 OGDM model predictions.</p

Propiconazole (ppc) Average Cumulative Fecundity.

<p>(A) control (0 μg ppc•L^-1); (B) 5 μg ppc•L^-1; (C) 50 μg ppc•L^-1; (D) 500 μg ppc•L^-1; and (E) 1000 μg ppc•L^-1. Filled markers represent experimental data (cumulative fecundity divided by the number of females in a treatment group) obtained from figures in Skolness et al. [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0146594#pone.0146594.ref013" target="_blank">13</a>]; dashed lines represent the mean of 50 cumulative fecundity OGDM predictions; solid lines represent the minimum and maximum values of individual cumulative fecundity out of 50 OGDM model predictions.</p