Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

The overall goal is to downscale ocean conditions predicted by an existing global prediction system and evaluate the results using observations from the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean. The first step is to develop a one-way nested regional model and evaluate its predictions using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system on the shelf because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is not because the regional model’s dynamics are flawed but rather is the result of internally generated variability in deep water that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system. To overcome this problem, the next step is to spectrally nudge the regional model to the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the global system. It is shown this leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cutoff wavelength of the spectral nudging

Carbon-cycle feedbacks operating in the climate system

Climate change involves a direct response of the climate system to forcing which is amplified or damped by feedbacks operating in the climate system. Carbon-cycle feedbacks alter the land and ocean carbon inventories and so act to reduce or enhance the increase in atmospheric CO2 from carbon emissions. The prevailing framework for carbon-cycle feedbacks connect changes in land and ocean carbon inventories with a linear sum of dependencies on atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. Carbon-cycle responses and feedbacks provide competing contributions: the dominant effect is that increasing atmospheric CO2 acts to enhance the land and ocean carbon stores, so providing a negative response and feedback to the original increase in atmospheric CO2, while rising surface temperature acts to reduce the land and ocean carbon stores, so providing a weaker positive feedback for atmospheric CO2. The carbon response and feedback of the land and ocean system may be expressed in terms of a combined carbon response and feedback parameter, λcarbon in units of W m− 2K− 1, and is linearly related to the physical climate feedback parameter, λclimate, revealing how carbon and climate responses and feedbacks are inter-connected. The magnitude and uncertainties in the carbon-cycle response and feedback parameter are comparable with the magnitude and uncertainties in the climate feedback parameter from clouds. Further mechanistic insight needs to be gained into how the carbon-cycle feedbacks are controlled for the land and ocean, particularly to separate often competing effects from changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate forcing

Controls of ocean carbon cycle feedbacks from different ocean basins and meridional overturning in CMIP6

Abstract. The ocean response to carbon emissions involves a competition between the increase in atmospheric CO2 acting to enhance the ocean carbon storage, characterised by the carbon-concentration feedback, and climate change acting to decrease the ocean carbon storage, characterised by the carbon-climate feedback. The contribution from different ocean basins to the carbon cycle feedbacks and its control by the ocean carbonate chemistry, physical ventilation and biological processes is explored in diagnostics of 10 CMIP6 Earth system models. To gain mechanist insight, the dependence of these feedbacks to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is also investigated in an idealised climate model and the CMIP6 models. The Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans contribute equally to the carbon-concentration feedback, despite their different size. This large contribution from the Atlantic Ocean relative to its size is associated with an enhanced carbon storage in the ocean interior due to a strong local physical ventilation and an influx of carbon transported from the Southern Ocean. The Atlantic Ocean provides the largest contribution to the carbon-climate feedback relative to its size, which is primarily due to climate change acting to reduce the physical ventilation. The Southern Ocean provides a relatively small contribution to the carbon-climate feedback, due to a compensation between the climate effects of the combined decrease in solubility and physical ventilation, and the increase in accumulation of regenerated carbon in the ocean interior. In the Atlantic Ocean, the AMOC strength and its weakening with warming has a strong control on the carbon cycle feedbacks that leads to a moderate dependence of these feedbacks to AMOC on global scale. In the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans there is no clear correlation between AMOC and the carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting that other processes control the ocean ventilation and carbon storage there. </jats:p

Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling

The surface warming response to carbon emissions is diagnosed using a suite of Earth system models, 9 CMIP6 and 7 CMIP5, following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2 over 140 years. This surface warming response defines a climate metric, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), which is important in estimating how much carbon may be emitted to avoid dangerous climate. The processes controlling these intermodel differences in the TCRE are revealed by defining the TCRE in terms of a product of three dependences: the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing (including the effects of physical climate feedbacks and planetary heat uptake), the radiative forcing dependence on changes in atmospheric carbon and the airborne fraction. Intermodel differences in the TCRE are mainly controlled by the thermal response involving the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing, which arise through large differences in physical climate feedbacks that are only partly compensated by smaller differences in ocean heat uptake. The other contributions to the TCRE from the radiative forcing and carbon responses are of comparable importance to the contribution from the thermal response on timescales of 50 years and longer for our subset of CMIP5 models and 100 years and longer for our subset of CMIP6 models. Hence, providing tighter constraints on how much carbon may be emitted based on the TCRE requires providing tighter bounds for estimates of the physical climate feedbacks, particularly from clouds, as well as to a lesser extent for the other contributions from the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the terrestrial and ocean cycling of carbon

Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins

The ocean response to carbon emissions involves the combined effect of an increase in atmospheric CO2, acting to enhance the ocean carbon storage, and climate change, acting to decrease the ocean carbon storage. This ocean response can be characterised in terms of a carbon–concentration feedback and a carbon–climate feedback. The contribution from different ocean basins to these feedbacks on centennial timescales is explored using diagnostics of ocean carbonate chemistry, physical ventilation and biological processes in 11 CMIP6 Earth system models. To gain mechanistic insight, the dependence of these feedbacks on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is also investigated in an idealised climate model and the CMIP6 models. For the carbon–concentration feedback, the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans provide comparable contributions when estimated in terms of the volume-integrated carbon storage. This large contribution from the Atlantic Ocean relative to its size is due to strong local physical ventilation and an influx of carbon transported from the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean has large anthropogenic carbon uptake from the atmosphere, but its contribution to the carbon storage is relatively small due to large carbon transport to the other basins. For the carbon–climate feedback estimated in terms of carbon storage, the Atlantic and Arctic oceans provide the largest contributions relative to their size. In the Atlantic, this large contribution is primarily due to climate change acting to reduce the physical ventilation. In the Arctic, this large contribution is associated with a large warming per unit volume. The Southern Ocean provides a relatively small contribution to the carbon–climate feedback, due to competition between the climate effects of a decrease in solubility and physical ventilation and an increase in accumulation of regenerated carbon. The more poorly ventilated Indo-Pacific Ocean provides a small contribution to the carbon cycle feedbacks relative to its size. In the Atlantic Ocean, the carbon cycle feedbacks strongly depend on the AMOC strength and its weakening with warming. In the Arctic, there is a moderate correlation between the AMOC weakening and the carbon–climate feedback that is related to changes in carbonate chemistry. In the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans, there is no clear correlation between the AMOC and the carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting that other processes control the ocean ventilation and carbon storage there

Interaction between the tidal and seasonal variability of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf Region

As part of a broader study of ocean downscaling, the seasonal and tidal variability of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian shelf, and their dynamical interaction, are investigated using a high-resolution (1/36°) circulation model. The model’s seasonal hydrography and circulation, and its tidal elevations and currents, are compared with an observed seasonal climatology, local observations, and results from previous studies. Numerical experiments with and without density stratification demonstrate the influence of stratification on the tides. The model is then used to interpret the physical mechanisms responsible for the largest seasonal variations in the M2 surface current that occur over, and to the north of, Georges Bank. The model generates a striation pattern of alternating highs and lows, aligned with Georges Bank, in the M2 surface summer maximum speed in the Gulf of Maine. The striations are consistent with observations by a high-frequency coastal radar system and can be explained in terms of a linear superposition of the barotropic tide and the first-mode baroclinic tide, generated on the north side of Georges Bank, as it propagates into the Gulf of Maine. The seasonal changes in tidal currents in the well-mixed area on Georges Bank are due to a combination of increased sea level gradients, and lower vertical viscosity, in summer

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models, and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully-, biogeochemically-, and radiatively-coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% per year (1pctCO2) from its pre-industrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of two feedback parameters which characterize the coupled carbon-climate system. These feedback parameters quantify the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate. The results are based on eight comprehensive Earth system models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and eleven models from the sixth CMIP (CMIP6). The comparison of model results from two CMIP phases shows that, for both land and ocean, the model mean values of the feedback parameters and their multi-model spread has not changed significantly across the two CMIP phases. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The sensitivity of feedback parameters to the three different ways in which they may be calculated is shown and, consistent with existing studies, the most relevant definition is that calculated using results from the fully- and biogeochemically-coupled configurations. Based on these two simulations simplified expressions for the feedback parameters are obtained when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically-coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters allows identification of the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models

Climate sensitivity from both physical and carbon cycle feedbacks

The surface warming response to anthropogenic forcing is highly sensitive to the strength of feedbacks in both the physical climate and carbon cycle systems. However, the definitions of climate feedback, λClimate in W·m−2·K−1, and climate sensitivity, SClimate in K/(W/m2), explicitly exclude the impact of carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we provide a new framework to incorporate carbon feedback into the definitions of climate feedback and sensitivity. Applying our framework to the Global Carbon Budget reconstructions reveals a present‐day terrestrial carbon feedback of λCarbon = 0.31 ± 0.09 W·m−2·K−1 and an ocean carbon feedback of −0.06 to 0.015 W·m−2·K−1 in Earth system models. Observational constraints reveal a combined climate and carbon feedback of λClimate+Carbon = 1.48 W·m−2·K−1 with a 95% range of 0.76 to 2.32 W·m−2·K−1 on centennial time scales, corresponding to a combined climate and carbon sensitivity of SClimate+Carbon = 0.67 K/(W/m2) with a 95% range of 0.43 to 1.32 K/(W/m2)

Regional asymmetries in ocean heat and carbon storage due to dynamic redistribution in climate model projections

Projected changes in ocean heat and carbon storage are assessed in terms of the added and redistributed tracer using a transport-based framework, which is applied to an idealized climate model and a suite of six CMIP5 Earth system models following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2. Heat and carbon budgets for the added and redistributed tracer are used to explain opposing regional patterns in the storage of ocean heat and carbon anomalies, such as in the tropics and subpolar North Atlantic, and the relatively reduced storage within the Southern Ocean. Here the added tracer takes account of the net tracer source and the advection of the added tracer by the circulation, while the redistributed tracer takes account of the time-varying circulation advecting the preindustrial tracer distribution. The added heat and carbon often have a similar sign to each other with the net source usually acting to supply the tracer. In contrast, the redistributed heat and carbon consistently have an opposing sign to each other due to the opposing gradients in the preindustrial temperature and carbon. These different signs in heat and carbon redistribution can lead to regional asymmetries in the climate-driven changes in ocean heat and carbon storage. For a weakening in the Atlantic overturning and strengthening in the Southern Ocean residual circulation, the high latitudes are expected to have heat anomalies of variable sign and carbon anomalies of a consistently positive sign, since added and redistributed tracers are opposing in sign for heat and the same sign for carbon there