Poverty to Progress and Distress to Viability: Breakthroughs in Ethiopia

Good News in Africa was uncommon. But Ethiopia is harvesting it in the current century in Economic progress, Fiscal viability and Stability among others. The purpose of this study is to assess economic progress and External Public debt in Ethiopia during the recent three planning periods: Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction program (SDPRP)   Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) and the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) periods which covers decade of 2003-2013. To this end, secondary data on public debt and other relevant macroeconomic issues of the decade under study were collected, adjusted and collated. Economic progress indicators such as GDP, percapita income, poverty level, unemployment, income inequality and Debt indicators such as Liquidity Monitoring Ratios, Debt Burden Ratio, Present Value Indicators, Debt Structure Indicators, Dynamic Indicators and Fiscal Indicators were collected/ computed and analyzed to measure economic progress and the debt service capacity of the country. The result from descriptive analysis of secondary data over the last 10 years showed that: The country registered uninterrupted and historic economic growth with an average rate of 10.9 percent during the decade. The rate of investment grew to 33 percent. Domestic saving rose to 17.7. Import shares about 28 percent of GDP and per-capita GDP grew to 550 USD, un employment reduced to 17.5, poverty level came down to 26 percent and income in equality to 29 percent. The growth in debt accumulation and debt service cost did not compromise economic growth, equity, employment and poverty reduction. The country’s debt utilization and management capacity significantly increased. External Public debt of Ethiopia is well managed. There is no alarm of debt distress, no significant manifestation of debt crises risk as it has track record in economic growth history and favorable growth potential along with not high present value of external debts outstanding. The 1990’s debt problems are not issue of worry now. The potential of the country to mobilize external debt finances at international level is improved. The country was rated as B and B+ by leading international raters for its credit worthiness. More over the country stayed as an island of stability in very unstable neighborhoods. In the other side, researches about private sector development and policy advise papers show absence of easy access, unavailability and unafordability of finance for private sector and weakness of institutional and policy environment. In this paper, the national policy makers and implementers are advised to work on institutions and infrastructures required to make easy access of finance for private sector and optimum use of debt finance, reducing bureaucracy, complex regulations and improving transparency to attract and retain foreign finance and reduce primary deficit and growth in current expenditure, raise efficiency of borrowing, reforms in debt management to sustain viability and  look for non commercial and concessional external borrowings for present an next GTP financing. Keywords: Public External Debt, Economic growth, Debt distress, Fiscal Viability

Public External Debt, Capital formation and Economic growth in Ethiopia

This study examined the nexus between public external debt, Capital formation and economic growth in economy of Ethiopia during the last recent four decades. The purpose is to identify the existence of cause and effect relationship between external public debt, Capital formation and Economic growth. To this end, secondary time serious macroeconomic data for the period under review were collected from ministry of Finance and Economic Development and African Development Indicators of World Bank data base and analyzed by qualitative description and quantitative econometric techniques. The result from qualitative and quantitative analysis has shown that Ethiopia were under serious external debt problem until 1990’s. Its good name was affected and access to external concessional borrowing window was denied. There were debt overhang, crowding out and liquidity problems birthed out of unfavorable policy followed by Dergue regime which include large borrowing from multilateral, bilateral and commercial creditors to finance war, in appropriate macroeconomic policy and channeling of resources for inefficient public undertakings which led to very low rate of return. The present government which inherited a mounting debt, fragile macro economy and very unstable country highly vulnerable to distress and conflict, with the help of  IDA and IMF established a stable macroeconomic environment, adopted comprehensive debt management strategy, utilized available debt relief optimally, improved debt indicator ratios and brought  the country’s external debt from un sustainability to sustainability. According to the quantitative analysis public external debt as percentage of GDP has a negative and significant relationship with real GDP in the long run and no significant effect in the short run. On the other hand external debt as percentage of GDP has positive and significant effect on capital formation in the long run and negative in the short run. Keywords: Public External Debt, Economic growth, Capital formation, and Debt distres

Research Design and Methodology

There are a number of approaches used in this research method design. The purpose of this chapter is to design the methodology of the research approach through mixed types of research techniques. The research approach also supports the researcher on how to come across the research result findings. In this chapter, the general design of the research and the methods used for data collection are explained in detail. It includes three main parts. The first part gives a highlight about the dissertation design. The second part discusses about qualitative and quantitative data collection methods. The last part illustrates the general research framework. The purpose of this section is to indicate how the research was conducted throughout the study periods

Assessing Univariate and Multivariate Homogeneity of Variance: A Guide For Practitioners

Most statistical methods assume constant variance and the validity of result from some of the methods highly rely on constant variance. However, a very high number of practitioners and researchers publications do not check the constant variance assumptions and hence the results are very prone to error. With aim of reducing this, both graphical and formal methods of assessing constant variance assumption are presented and illustrated in this paper. In univariate data several methods have been proposed. The graphical methods of assessing constancy of variance include plot of residuals against the fitted values, residuals against the fitted value square, and residual versus predictor variable are widely used. In addition, formal tests of assessing this assumption are Bartlett’s, Levene’s, Breusch-Pagan, Brown and Forsythe, O’Brien’s, White’s and Fligner-Killeen are commonly used and also applicable in most of statistical software. For multivariate data, the two common tests in practice are Box’s M teste and Bartlett’s. Finally, when the constancy of variance assumption not satisfied, it is very important to find a variance-stabilizing transformation. Keywords: Homogeneity of variance, Bartlett’s test, Breusch-Pagan test, Brown and Forsythe test, Levene’s test

Infrastructure and cluster development

Rural nonfarm development plays a key role in generating employment in many developing countries. Clustering is an important form of industrial organization in the rural nonfarm sector. Based on a primary survey of both urban and rural handloom weaver clusters in Ethiopia, one of the country’s most important rural nonfarm sectors, this paper examines the mechanism and performance of clustering. That cluster-based handloom production survives even in remote rural areas illustrates its vitality in restricted environments. In the absence of financial institutions, clustered producers set up interconnected trade credit linkages to ease working capital constraints. Moreover, geographical clustering enables entrepreneurs with limited capital to enter the business through shared workspaces and fine division of labor. Despite the viability of the clustering model of production operating in harsh environments, an improvement in infrastructure can further enhance firm performance in a cluster. Our survey indicates that producers in electrified towns work longer hours than those in towns without electricity. In addition, the rental cost of shared lit workspaces is minimal, attracting more poor entrepreneurs to participate in handloom production than would otherwise be possible.Development strategies, handloom weavers, industrial clustering, productivity,

Multilevel Analysis for Identifying Factors Influencing Academic Achievement of Students in Higher Education Institution: The Case of Wollo University

Education is a process by which man transfers his experiences, new findings, and values accumulated over the years, in his struggle for survival and development, through generations. Accordingly, one of the aims of education is to strengthen the individual's and societies’ problem solving capacity, ability and culture starting from basic education and at all levels in each field (FDRGE, 1994). The general objective of this study is to determine the key factors influencing students’ academic achievements measured by CGPA of students. The data for the study Data were obtained through questionnaire method that covers various factors related to students’ academic achievement including educational and socio-demographic backgrounds of students and their parents, economic background of parents, lecturers’ characteristics and general university facilities. The data collection instrument (that is questionnaire) was prepared in English. Students included in the sample were selected using systematic random sampling technique from those representative departments and batch’s. The analysis used multilevel linear regression to analyze the data in order to identify determinants of both school and department variation in students’ academic achievements measured by CGPA of students. University entrance Exam result, sex, mother education level, father education level, drug use, number of assessments, and group study status were found to be determinants of academic achievement in the total sample of students. In contrast, sexual partner and teacher education level were not significantly related to the academic achievement of students.  In conclusion, to increase the success of students and reduce variability of academic achievement both between college/school/institute and departments, there is clear need of promoting group work and put efforts for its effectiveness. In addition, both college/school/institute and departments should give great attention in supporting female students. Keywords: Academic achievement, Sample size, Multilevel, Regression, Hierarchical, Wollo Universit

Participatory Evaluation of Dual Purpose Pigeon Pea (Cajanus Cajan) Leaves for Sheep Feeding

The study on the potential use of pigeon pea leaves as sheep feed was carried out with eighteen local Sheep with an average initial weight of 15.2 ± 0.97 kg were randomly assigned to three dietary treatments. The experiment entailed a completely randomized design with 6 replications per treatment. Pigeon pea leaves (PPL) at three levels: 0%, 35% and 52%. The PPL 0% considered as a control group fed a natural grass. On dry matter (DM) basis PPL and natural grass contained 21.61 and 9.25% CP, 4.25 and 8.29% EE, 54.80 and 65.57% NDF and 39.75 and 36.08 ADF, respectively. Forage biomass production of pigeon pea was 8.35t/ha with crude protein yield of 1.56 t/ha, while the natural grass yield was 4.21 t/ha with CP yield of 0.33 t/ha.  Supplementation of PPL significantly (P<0.05) increased average daily gain of sheep but there was no significant (P<0.05) difference between sheep supplemented with PPL 0% and PPL 35% in terms of weight gain. Average daily live weight gain was significantly greater (P<0.05) for PPL52%. There was a significantly higher (p<0.05) PPL intake and weight gain obtained in treatment PPL52%. Therefore, supplementation of sheep with PPL52% pigeon pea leaves was found to be the best level under farmer condition especially in the lowland areas. Keywords: Pigeon pea leaves, sheep, weight gain, feed intak

Laboratory services in health centres within Amhara region, North Ethiopia

Objective: To identify current problems in laboratory services and elicit suggestions from the technicians aimed at improving the services in health centres within Amhara region, north Ethiopia. Design: Cross-sectional study using a pre-tested questionnaire. Settings: Twenty seven health centres in Amhara region, north Ethiopia. Participants: Twenty seven laboratory technicians. Results: Physical facilities were seriosly lacking, consisting of only one room in 85.2%  of the health centres. Supply of electricity was never continuous. Whereas virtually all the health centres had up to five medical doctors each, laboratory manpower was grossly below the ideal requirement. Over half of the health centres had only one technician each, resulting into heavy workload. Laboratory reagents were insufficient, equipment lacking, and maintenance and repair were not accorded adequate attention. Eighty different tests were offered by the health centres in various combinations. Twenty categories of suggestions were advanced by the respondents. Conclusion: There is a great shortage of manpower, equipment, chemicals and other supplies to provide adequate laboratory services in the health centres within the region. Consequently, the laboratories are functioning below capacity.East African Medical Journal, May 1999, 239-24

Experiment on Sand Incubator: An Alternative Mini-Hatchery Technique for Smallholder Poultry Farmers

The experiment was conducted to compare and evaluate the hatchability and survival rate of a sand incubator and natural hen incubation technique and to estimate the profitability of the two different incubation techniques. The results of this study indicated that fertility, hatchability and dead in shell there were no significant difference (P>0.05) among the treatments. Embryonic mortality, normal DOC, abnormal DOC and chick weight showed significant differences (P<0.05) among the treatments. Higher embryonic mortality (17%) in broody hen than (9.2%) in sand incubator was observed. On the first batch, the net return per 100 eggs in sand incubation was 177.83 ETB ($9.3) which is higher net return/ profit from that of the broody hen incubation (-441.05 ETB) or ($-23.0) which were not profitable for the first batch at 70.80% hatchability. On the 1st year run the net return was estimated and can incurred by sand incubator which make it sustainable in profitability for the smallholder farmers by making high income for the next seven years of production period. Finally in order to improve the performance of the hatchery traits before the technology adopt to the farmers intensive adoptive research should be conduct and also training of smallholder poultry producers in the hatchery management of sand incubator is very crucial. Keywords: Sand incubator, broody hen, hatchability, net retur

Modelling Calcium Signal Intensity Difference Between Cells

Cell signaling involves the transmission of a signal from a sending cell to a receiving cell. Calcium ions (Ca2+) are a widely used type of messenger. In this study the evolution over time of calcium signal intensity and how these evolutions depend on the four groups of cells of subjects with different health condition was investigated. A longitudinal data analysis based on 110 subjects was used and to account non-linearity and correlated nature of the data, non-linear mixed model was used. Based on the exploratory data analysis result supported with CurveExpert professional software the model used has sigmoid structure. From the result, the rate of change of average signal intensity was nearly 0.033 and the time at which the rate of change of average calcium signal intensity reaches its maximum (i.e. the inflection point) was nearly 198 seconds. Furthermore, there were statistically significant differences in average calcium signal intensity between the groups. It is also observed that significant differences between mild hyperplasia and benign tumor patient’s cells and also between malignant tumor and healthy subject’s cells. Keywords: Calcium, Cell Signaling, Non Linear Mixed Model, Random Effect, Signal Intensit