Summary of the data stratified by country.

<p>Summary of the data stratified by country.</p

<i>Pfmdr1</i> copy number in parasite isolates collected in patients with primary uncomplicated <i>P. falciparum</i> infection.

<p><i>Pfmdr1</i> copy number in parasite isolates collected in patients with primary uncomplicated <i>P. falciparum</i> infection.</p

PCR-confirmed novel and recrudescent infections and time to recrudescence.

<p>PCR-confirmed novel and recrudescent infections and time to recrudescence.</p

Percentage of patients who had cleared parasitaemia at Day-2 and Day-3 1995–2007.

<p>Percentage of patients who had cleared parasitaemia at Day-2 and Day-3 1995–2007.</p

Summary of the data from the Thai-Myanmar border stratified by year.

<p>Summary of the data from the Thai-Myanmar border stratified by year.</p

Drug sensitivity of <i>P. falciparum</i> isolates for artesunate (Figure 4a) and mefloquine (Figure 4b).

<p>Isolates from primary infections were collected at SMRU clinics between 1995 and 2007 and assayed for sensitivity to artesunate and mefloquine, IC₅₀ geometric means are given as nM/l with [95% CI].</p

Plot of the model fits (red dots) to observed data (grey violin plots, with a black bar representing the interquartile range) aggregated by country.

<p>Number of dots per site indicates the number of contributing distributions. The position of the dot on the y-axis represents the geometric mean of the distribution and the size of the dot represents the relative contribution of that subgroup to the full distribution.</p

A plot of the simulation model prediction for the relationship between the percentage of patients parasitaemic after 3 days of treatment and the percentage of ‘resistant’ infections in the sample (solid black lines) with 95% prediction interval (dashed black lines).

<p>This prediction is plotted with a 10% threshold for the percentage of patients positive on day-3 of treatment (red dashed line). The rows of the panel represent three different assumptions about the geometric mean parasitaemia on admission and the columns of the panel represent three different assumptions about the study sample size.</p

Demographic characteristics on admission of patients enrolled in antimalarial drug efficacy trials who received MAS₃, between 1995 and 2007.

<p>Demographic characteristics on admission of patients enrolled in antimalarial drug efficacy trials who received MAS₃, between 1995 and 2007.</p

Model predictions for the probability that an infection with a given clearance half-life is resistant.

<p>This relationship is predicted to be dependent on the underlying proportion of ‘resistant’ infections in the study population. The relationships for underlying proportions ‘resistant’ of 0.1 (green), 0.5 (blue), and 0.9 (purple) are shown. The shaded areas represent the 50%, 80%, 90%, and 95% prediction intervals (from dark to light shading, respectively).</p