Insider ownership and corporate performance: evidence from Germany

In this paper we address the question whether insider ownership affects corporate performance. Evidence coming from studies dealing with Anglo-Saxon countries is rather inconclusive, especially because it seems that results are significantly affected by endogeneity. Economically, this is due to the fact that in these countries insider ownership seems to be mainly driven by management's compensation contracts. We argue that Germany is different in this regard, as insider ownership often is related to family control, stock-based compensation is less widespread and the market for corporate control is less developed. Starting from this presumption our data allows to make an unbiased observation as to whether insider ownership affects firm performance. Using a pooled data set of 648 firm observations for the years 2003 and 1998 we find evidence for a positive and significant relationship between corporate performance as measured by stock price performance, market-to-book ratio and return on assets and insider ownership. This relationship seems to be rather robust, even if we account for endogeneity by applying a 2SLS regression approach. Moreover, we also find outside block ownership as well as more concentrated insider ownership to have a positive impact on corporate performance. Overall the results indicate that ownership structure might be an important variable explaining the long term value creation in the corporate sector. --Ownership Structure,Shareholder Structure,Insider Ownership,Firm Performance,Corporate Governance,Agency Costs

Linking credit risk premia to the equity premium

Although the equity premium is - both from a conceptual and empirical perspective - a widely researched topic in finance, there is still no consensus in the academic literature about its magnitude. In this paper, we propose a different estimation method which is based on credit valuations. The main idea is straigtforward: We use structural models to link equity valuations to credit valuations. Based on a simple Merton model, we derive an estimator for the market Sharpe ratio. This estimator has several advantages. First, it offers a new line of thought for estimating the equity premium which is not directly linked to current methods. Second, it is only based on observable parameters. We do neither have to calibrate dividend or earnings growth - which is usually necessary in dividend/earnings discount models - nor do we have to calibrate asset values or default barriers - which is usually necessary in traditional applications of structural models. Third, it is robust to model changes. We examine the model of Duffie/Lando (2001) - which is one of the most sophisticated structural models currently discussed in the literature - to show this robustness. In an empirical analysis we have used CDS spreads of the 125 most liquid CDS in the U.S. from 2003 to 2007 to estimate the equity premium. We derive an average implicit market Sharpe ratio of appr. 40%. Adjusting for taxes and other parts of the credit spread not attributable to credit risk yields an average market Sharpe ratio below 30%. This confirms research on the equity premium, which indicates that the historically observed Sharpe ratio of 40-50% - corresponding to an equity premium of 7-9% and a volatility of 15-20% - was partly due to one-time effects. In addition, our research can be used to explain empirical findings about credit risk premia, which are usually measured as the ratio of risk-neutral to actual default probabilities. We show that the behavior of these ratios can be directly inferred from a simple Merton model and that this behavior is robust to model changes. --equity premium,credit risk premium,credit risk,structural models of default

European private equity funds: A cash flow based performance analysis

This paper presents a cash flow based analysis of the return and risk characteristics of European Private Equity Funds. For that purpose a comprehensive data set has been provided by Thomson Venture Economics. We document the typical time pattern of cash flows for European private equity funds. Specifically, it is recorded that the average European private equity fund draws down 23% of total committed capital on the vintage date; within the first three years 60% of the total commitment is draw down. It turned out that limited partners on average get back the money invested slightly after 7 years. Over the time period from 1980 to June 2003, we calculate various performance measures. For that purpose we use only liquidated funds or funds with a small residual net asset value. Under this restriction one specific data set consists of 200 funds. We document a cash flow based IRR of 12.7% and an average excess-IRR of 4.5% relative to the MSCI Europe equity index. In order to circumvent the problems associated with the IRR-approach we focus on the alternative public market equivalent approach. There it is assumed that cash flows generated by a private equity fund are reinvested in a public market benchmark index. We record an average PME of 0.96 and a value-weighted average PME of 1.04. Based on the PME-approach we develop a viable methodology to estimate the return and risk characteristics of European private equity funds and the correlation structure to public markets. As a benchmark index we used the MSCI Europe Equity Index as well as the J.P.Morgan Government Bond Index. Over the period 1980-2003 private equity funds generated an overperformance with respect to the bond index and two of our three samples an underperformance with respect to the equity index. Over the period 1989-2003 private equity funds generated an overperformance with respect to both indexes. Finally, we analyze to what extent performance measures are associated with specific funds characteristics, like size, payback period and vintage year, respectively. While the payback period and the vintage year seem to have a statistically significant influence on a fund's performance, the results with respect to size are inconclusive. --private equity,venture capital,cash flow analysis,public market equivalent,internal rate of return

Market efficiency reloaded: why insider trades do not reveal exploitable information

Insider trading studies related to the German market have emphasized that outside investors may earn excess returns by mimicking the transactions of corporate directors. Such a result, provided that it holds, would constitute a serious violation of the efficient market hypothesis. The results presented in this paper, though, show that this anomaly is mainly caused by a subset of stocks with high arbitrage risk as measured by their idiosyncratic volatility. This restrains arbitrageurs from engaging in otherwise profitable and price-correcting trades. As arbitrage risk is positively related to a stock's bid/ask-spread, we show that the information conveyed by insider trades cannot be exploited in terms of generating abnormal returns once these transaction costs are taken into account. We conclude that the market's under-reaction to reported insider trades can mainly be explained by the cost associated with risky arbitrage. Our findings provide evidence that the German stock market is efficient with respect to insider trades in the sense that prices reflect publicly available information to the point where the marginal benefit of acting on information exceeds marginal costs. --Insider Trading,Directors' Dealings,Arbitrage Risk,Market Efficiency

The impact of order size on stock liquidity: a representative study

Liquidity, the ease of trading an asset, strongly varies between different sizes of stock positions. We analyze this aspect using the Xetra Liquidity Measure (XLM), which calculates daily, weighted spread for impatient traders transacting against the limit order book. For this measure, we have data for 160 German stocks over 5.5 years, which allows us a representative analysis of the order-size impact on liquidity cost and its main statistical characteristics. We find that in the sample period average liquidity costs rose to over 100bp in large DAX and to 460bp in large SDAX positions. Over the last 5.5 years, liquidity has equally improved across all order sizes. Liquid position sizes, however, suffered less badly during the recent sub-prime crises, which represents another type of the flight-to-liquidity. As the basis for further theoretical analysis, we find that trends in liquidity levels and inefficiencies in liquidity prices of large positions generate non-normality in the liquidity distribution. We also show that - as a rule of thumb - liquidity of an order size relative to market value and transaction volume is constant across stocks and time. While order size is not the most important liquidity determinant, doubling order size increases liquidity cost by 5-10% on average when accounting for other differences in stocks. --asset liquidity,liquidity cost,price impact,weighted spread,Xetra liquidity measure (XLM)

Why and how to integrate liquidity risk into a VaR-framework

We integrate liquidity risk measured by the weighted spread into a Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework. The weighted spread measure extracts liquidity costs by order size from the limit order book. We show that it is precise from a risk perspective in a wide range of clearly defined situations. Using a unique, representative data set provided by Deutsche Boerse AG, we find liquidity risk to increase traditionally-measured price risk by over 25%, even at standard 10-day horizons and for liquid DAX stocks. We also show that the common approach of simply adding liquidity risk to price risk substantially overestimates total risk because correlation between liquidity and price is neglected. Our results are robust with respect to changes in risk measure, to sample periods and to effects of portfolio diversification. --asset liquidity,price impact,weighted spread,Xetra Liquidity Measure (XLM),Value-at-Risk,market liquidity risk

Lifting the veil of accounting information under different accounting standards: lessons learned from the German experiment

It is well-known from US-related studies that investors systematically overreact to accrual-based accounting information. We address the question to what extent this accrual anomaly is related to different accounting standards. We provide empirical evidence that the accrual anomaly is also present in Germany. However, this anomaly has become particularly important after the year 2000 and cannot be detected for firms presenting their financial statements under German GAAP. It is argued that introducing true and fair view accounting, like IFRS, that relies on difficult-to-verify information, may not be suitable to improve accounting information quality in the context of a weak corporate governance system. --accrual anomaly,earnings persistency,conservative accounting,true and fair view accounting,accounting standards,accounting regulation,empirical accounting research,German GAAP,IFRS/IAS,US-GAAP

Market liquidity risk: an overview

Market liquidity is the ease of trading an asset. Its risk is the potential loss, because a security can only be traded at high or prohibitive costs. While the omnipresence and importance of market liquidity is widely acknowledged, it has long remained a more or less elusive concept. Treatment of liquidity risk is still under development. This paper provides an overview on important aspects of market liquidity and its risk. We also survey existing models to integrate market liquidity risk into risk frameworks. We place special emphasis on practical usability and discuss relevant strengths, weaknesses and their implications. --asset liquidity,liquidity cost,price impact,Xetra liquidity measure (XLM),risk measurement,Value-at-Risk, market liquidity risk,overview

What drives cash flow based European private equity returns? Fund inflows, skilled GPs and/or risk?

This paper analyzes the determinants of returns generated by European private equity funds. It starts from the presumption that this asset class is characterized by illiquidity, stickiness and segmentation. As a consequence, Gompers and Lerner (2000) have shown that venture deal valuations are driven by overall fund inflows into the industry giving way to the so called 'money chasing deals' phenomenon. It is the aim of this paper to document that this phenomenon also explains a significant part of variation in private equity funds' returns. This is especially true for venture funds, as they are more affected by illiquidity and segmentation than buy-out funds. Actually, the paper presents a WLS-regression model that is able to explain up to 47% of variation in funds' returns. Apart from the importance of fund flows we can also show that market sentiment, the GPs' skills as well as the idiosyncratic risk of a fund have a significant impact on its returns. Moreover, they seem to be unrelated to stock market returns and negatively correlated with the development of the economy as a whole. According to a bootstrapping inference the results seem to be quite stable. --private equity funds,venture capital,financing,WLS,bootstrapping

Private equity funds and hedge funds: a primer

Private equity funds and hedge funds are both alternative asset classes that are continuously growing in importance. Although they have different focuses, they share some characteristics. First of all, both have or allegedly have a significant impact on the economy as well as the financial system they operate in. Therefore, the question of a potential regulation of both asset classes arises. Due to the lack of sophisticated knowledge about the differences of these asset classes, market players fear that attempts to regulate hedge funds will adversely affect private equity funds. Besides the regulatory issue, there are several other links between these two asset classes that have to be looked at. The relationship between those two asset classes is therefore of general importance. Last months' developments in the hedge fund industry (e.g. rumors about turbulences as well as hedge funds forcing the dismissal of the CEO of Deutsche Börse) have now even led to a broad public debate about private equity and hedge funds. At least in Germany the debate has been partly fueled by the fact that both types of funds are highly funded by institutional investors from abroad. Due to this the debate widened and included criticism on Anglo-Saxon style capitalism as well. In the light of the last German elections, hedge funds and private equity funds have even been compared to locusts, notorious for exhausting whole countries. However, the distinction between hedge funds and private equity funds remains very vague in this discussion, so that deep mistrust is spread among the public opinion against these new, mostly unknown and misunderstood types of investors. For this reason it is important to * discuss the arguments for or against regulation, * look at the major links between the two asset classes, * look at the major differences that exist between the asset classes, and * conceive a set of criteria to clearly distinguish between both types of funds. The purpose of this paper is to comment on possible solutions to the above mentioned tasks. It outlines preliminary thoughts and findings. Further, it comments on the steps that we think should be taken to further enhance perception of private equity funds as opposed to hedge funds from a public as well as a regulatory perspective. --Private Equity Funds,Hedge Funds