Polar Bear Distribution and Habitat Association Reflect Long-term Changes in Fall Sea Ice Conditions in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is considered an indicator species of ecosystem health because of its longevity, life-history requirements, reliance on sea ice (i.e., sea ice obligate), and position in the Arctic food web. Polar bear distribution and habitat association should both be reliable signals for environmental perturbation, as the bears respond behaviorally to changes in sea ice extent, the timing and duration of ice formation, and ablation. Polar bears and sea ice conditions were monitored as part of the annual fall bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) aerial survey in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea between 1979 and 2005. Habitats associated with polar bear sightings changed during the study, with fewer bears associated with ice (irrespective of ice type and percent) and more bears associated with land and open water. Large-scale differences were documented for both ice type and percent ice cover, particularly in September. In general, the pattern in September (and to a lesser extent in October) included a reduction in old ice and a concomitant increase in open water. In addition, there was an eastward and landward shift in polar bear sightings. From 1979 to 1987, polar bears were observed primarily on ice along the shelf break near Barrow, whereas from 1997 to 2005, polar bears were observed on barrier islands or along the mainland coast near Kaktovik. The changes in polar bear distribution and habitat association appear to reflect a behavioral response by polar bears to changes in ice (type and percent cover) and in the timing of ice formation and ablation.L’ours polaire (Ursus maritimus) est considéré comme une espèce indicatrice de la santé de l’écosystème en raison de sa longévité, des besoins de son cycle biologique, de sa dépendance de la glace de mer (c’est-à-dire la glace de mer obligatoire) et de la position qu’il occupe dans le réseau alimentaire de l’Arctique. La répartition de l’ours polaire et son association à un habitat devraient tous deux constituer des signaux fiables en matière de perturbation de l’environnement car le comportement des ours varie en fonction des changements caractérisant l’étendue de glace de mer, la synchronisation et la durée de la formation de la glace, de même que l’ablation. Les ours polaires et les conditions de la glace de mer ont fait l’objet d’une surveillance dans le cadre du levé aérien annuel de la baleine boréale (Balaena mysticetus) effectué à l’automne dans la mer de Beaufort alaskienne entre 1979 et 2005. Au cours de l’étude, les habitats liés aux observations d’ours polaires ont évolué, un moins grand nombre d’ours étant associés à la glace (sans égard au type et au pourcentage de glace) et un plus grand nombre d’ours étant associés à la terre et à l’eau libre. Les différences à grande échelle ont été répertoriées tant pour le type de glace que pour le pourcentage de couche de glace, particulièrement en septembre. En général, la tendance en septembre (et en octobre, dans une moindre mesure) comprenait une réduction de l’ancienne glace de même qu’une augmentation concomitante dans l’eau libre. De plus, on a enregistré un décalage vers l’est et vers l’intérieur des terres en ce qui a trait aux observations d’ours polaires. De 1979 à 1987, les ours polaires ont surtout été observés sur la glace le long du rebord continental près de Barrow, tandis que de 1997 à 2005, les ours polaires ont été observés sur les îles-barrières ou le long de la côte continentale près de Kaktovik. Les changements caractérisant la répartition des ours polaires et l’association à un habitat semblent refléter une réaction comportementale des ours polaires vis-à-vis des changements relatifs à la glace (le type et le pourcentage de la couche) ainsi que de la synchronisation de la formation et de l’ablation de la glace

Traditional Knowledge about Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in Northwestern Alaska

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an iconic Arctic species, but residents of Arctic coastal communities are among the few who have opportunities to observe their behavior for extended periods of time. Documenting traditional knowledge about polar bears is thus an important research approach, especially in light of recent rapid changes to summer sea ice extent. We interviewed polar bear hunters in seven Alaska Native communities along the coast of the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Our study confirmed findings from similar research conducted in the mid-1990s and added information about the responses of polar bears to more recent environmental change. The distribution and local abundance of polar bears have changed over time, though different communities report different patterns. Polar bears arrive from the north later in fall than previously. Despite substantial changes in sea ice and other aspects of polar bear habitat, the animals generally appear to be in good body condition, and cubs continue to be observed regularly. While polar bears continue to feed primarily on seals, they have been observed eating a diverse range of foods, including eggs, greens, fish, berries, and other foods as available. Reduction in harvest levels due to environmental, economic, and social factors is the overriding trend; however, in years when bears are particularly abundant around villages, this pattern is temporarily reversed. Polar bears remain important spiritually and culturally for the indigenous communities of northern and western Alaska.Les ours polaires (Ursus maritimus) constituent une espèce iconique de l’Arctique, mais les résidents des collectivités côtières de l’Arctique figurent parmi les quelques personnes qui ont l’occasion d’observer leur comportement pendant des périodes prolongées. C’est pourquoi la consignation des connaissances traditionnelles sur les ours polaires représente un aspect important de la recherche, surtout à la lumière des changements rapides caractérisant l’étendue de la glace de mer en été. Nous avons interviewé des chasseurs d’ours polaires de sept collectivités autochtones de l’Alaska situées le long de la côte nord de la mer de Béring et de la mer des Tchouktches. Notre étude a permis de confirmer les observations émanant de travaux de recherche similaires réalisés dans le milieu des années 1990 ainsi que d’enrichir l’information sur la réaction des ours polaires vis-à-vis des changements environnementaux plus récents. La répartition et l’abondance locale d’ours polaires ont changé au fil du temps, bien que les tendances diffèrent d’une collectivité à l’autre. À l’automne, les ours polaires arrivent du Nord plus tard qu’avant. Malgré les importants changements qui caractérisent les glaces de mer et d’autres aspects de l’habitat de l’ours polaire, les animaux semblent généralement en bon état corporel, et l’on continue d’observer des oursons régulièrement. Même si les ours polaires continuent de s’alimenter principalement de phoques, on les a vus en train de manger divers aliments, dont des oeufs, des plantes vertes, du poisson, des petits fruits et d’autre nourriture, selon les disponibilités. Les taux de récolte à la baisse en raison de facteurs environnementaux, économiques et sociaux constituent la tendance prépondérante. Cependant, au cours des années pendant lesquelles les ours sont nombreux autour des villages, cette tendance est renversée temporairement. Par ailleurs, les ours polaires continuent de revêtir une importance spirituelle et culturelle pour les collectivités indigènes du nord et de l’ouest de l’Alaska

Iñupiaq Knowledge of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

Successful wildlife management depends upon coordination and consultation with local communities. However, much of the research used to inform management is often derived solely from data collected directly from wildlife. Indigenous people living in the Arctic have a close connection to their environment, which provides unique opportunities to observe their environment and the ecology of Arctic species. Further, most northern Arctic communities occur within the range of polar bears (nanuq, Ursus maritimus) and have experienced significant climatic changes. Here, we used semi-structured interviews from 2017 to 2019 to document Iñupiaq knowledge of polar bears observed over four decades in four Alaskan communities in the range of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation: Wainwright, Utqiaġvik, Nuiqsut, and Kaktovik. All but one of 47 participants described directional and notable changes in sea ice, including earlier ice breakup, later ice return, thinner ice, and less multiyear pack ice. These changes corresponded with observations of bears spending more time on land during the late summer and early fall in recent decades—observations consistent with scientific and Indigenous knowledge studies in Alaska, Canada, and Greenland. Participants noted that polar bear and seal body condition and local abundance either varied geographically or exhibited no patterns. However, participants described a recent phenomenon of bears being exhausted and lethargic when arriving on shore in the summer and fall after extensive swims from the pack ice. Further, several participants suggested that maternal denning is occurring more often on land than sea ice. Participants indicated that village and regional governments are increasingly challenged to obtain resources needed to keep their communities safe as polar bears spend more time on land, an issue that is likely to be exacerbated both in this region and elsewhere as sea ice loss continues. La gestion réussie de la faune dépend des efforts de coordination et de consultation avec les collectivités locales. Toutefois, il arrive souvent qu’une grande partie de la recherche utilisée pour éclairer la gestion dérive uniquement des données recueillies directement de la faune. Les peuples autochtones qui vivent dans l’Arctique entretiennent des liens étroits avec leur environnement, ce qui crée des occasions uniques d’observer l’environnement et l’écologie des espèces de l’Arctique. Il y a également lieu de remarquer que la plupart des collectivités du nord de l’Arctique se trouvent dans l’aire de répartition des ours polaires (nanuq, Ursus) et connaissent d’importants changements climatiques. Dans le cadre de cette étude, nous nous sommes appuyés sur des entrevues semi-structurées réalisées entre 2017 et 2019 pour documenter les connaissances des Iñupiaq au sujet des ours polaires découlant d’observations échelonnées sur quatre décennies dans quatre collectivités de l’Alaska situées dans l’aire de répartition de la sous-population d’ours polaires du sud de la mer de Beaufort : Wainwright, Utqiaġvik, Nuiqsut et Kaktovik. Les 47 participants, sauf un, ont décrit des changements directionnels et remarquables en ce qui a trait à la glace de mer, dont des débâcles plus hâtives, le retour plus tardif de la glace, de la glace plus mince et moins de banquises pluriannuelles. Ces changements correspondent aux observations d’ours qui passent plus de temps sur la terre ferme en fin d’été et en début d’automne au cours des dernières décennies. Ces observations coïncident avec les études sur les connaissances scientifiques et autochtones réalisées en Alaska, au Canada et au Groenland. Les participants ont fait remarquer que la condition corporelle des ours polaires et des phoques ainsi que leur abondance à l’échelle locale variaient d’une région à l’autre ou n’affichaient aucune tendance. Cependant, les participants ont décrit un phénomène récent selon lequel les ours sont épuisés et léthargiques lorsqu’ils arrivent sur la rive à l’été et à l’automne, après avoir parcouru de longues distances à la nage depuis les banquises. Aussi, plusieurs participants ont laissé entendre que les aires de mise bas se retrouvent plus souvent sur la terre ferme que sur la glace de mer. Les participants ont indiqué que le gouvernement des villages et les gouvernements régionaux ont de plus en plus de difficulté à obtenir les ressources nécessaires pour assurer la sécurité de leurs collectivités, car les ours polaires passent plus de temps sur la terre ferme, un enjeu qui risque de s’aggraver, tant dans cette région qu’ailleurs, à mesure que la glace de mer continuera de perdre de l’ampleur.

Identifying indicators of polar bear population status

Monitoring trends in large mammal populations is a fundamental component of wildlife management and conservation. However, direct estimates of population size and vital rates of large mammals can be logistically challenging and expensive. Indicators that reflect trends in abundance, therefore, can be valuable tools for supporting population monitoring. Polar bears have a relatively simple life history such that a few key variables may be effective indicators for tracking changes in body condition and recruitment that affect abundance. Direct estimates of polar bear abundance are difficult to obtain due to their large home ranges in remote Arctic habitats. Changes in abundance associated with environmental conditions appear to affect polar bears largely via effects on female body condition which influence reproduction and cub survival (i.e., recruitment). Loss of sea ice habitat is further limiting researcher access for population monitoring creating a need for alternative approaches. Here we used relationships established from eight years (2008–2017) of data collected on 439 polar bears in the Chukchi Sea, to transform previously published individual-based relationships with annually available sea ice, atmospheric circulation, and prey body condition variables to predict annual mean body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022. Although annual sample sizes were limited for verifying predicted body condition and recruitment via techniques such as cross-validation, in most cases predicted annual means were closely correlated with observed means for 2008–2017. Summer sea ice and prey body condition remained within or increased relative to levels observed during 2008–2017 and predicted polar bear body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022 were largely within or above observed annual means during 2008–2017. A lack of trend in environmental and ecological variables or polar bear body condition and recruitment metrics during 2008–2022 is suggestive that the Chukchi Sea polar bear population was likely stable during this time. Our results provide support for developing models that predict important population parameters of large mammals based on environmental and ecological indicators. Given that trend information is lacking for 10 of the 19 recognized polar bear populations and is outdated for others, the use of environmental and ecological indicators may be particularly useful for augmenting direct estimates of polar bear vital rates in between periods of data collection. Although demographic assessments for polar bears have primarily focused on correlations with sea ice availability, our study and others highlight that prey health is also an important indicator of polar bear population status

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥ 21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ∼5–30% in the SB and ∼10–50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by > 30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50–62% of SB and 79–88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation

Appendix A. Model results examining relationships between the availability of sea ice habitat and measures of skull width, body length, mass, and condition of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea.

Model results examining relationships between the availability of sea ice habitat and measures of skull width, body length, mass, and condition of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea

Appendix B. Model results examining trends in measures of skull width, body length, mass, and condition of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea between 1983 and 2006.

Model results examining trends in measures of skull width, body length, mass, and condition of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea between 1983 and 2006