Multivariate Poisson hidden Markov models for analysis of spatial counts

Multivariate count data are found in a variety of fields. For modeling such data, one may consider the multivariate Poisson distribution. Overdispersion is a problem when modeling the data with the multivariate Poisson distribution. Therefore, in this thesis we propose a new multivariate Poisson hidden Markov model based on the extension of independent multivariate Poisson finite mixture models, as a solution to this problem. This model, which can take into account the spatial nature of weed counts, is applied to weed species counts in an agricultural field. The distribution of counts depends on the underlying sequence of states, which are unobserved or hidden. These hidden states represent the regions where weed counts are relatively homogeneous. Analysis of these data involves the estimation of the number of hidden states, Poisson means and covariances. Parameter estimation is done using a modified EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation. We extend the univariate Markov-dependent Poisson finite mixture model to the multivariate Poisson case (bivariate and trivariate) to model counts of two or three species. Also, we contribute to the hidden Markov model research area by developing Splus/R codes for the analysis of the multivariate Poisson hidden Markov model. Splus/R codes are written for the estimation of multivariate Poisson hidden Markov model using the EM algorithm and the forward-backward procedure and the bootstrap estimation of standard errors. The estimated parameters are used to calculate the goodness of fit measures of the models.Results suggest that the multivariate Poisson hidden Markov model, with five states and an independent covariance structure, gives a reasonable fit to this dataset. Since this model deals with overdispersion and spatial information, it will help to get an insight about weed distribution for herbicide applications. This model may lead researchers to find other factors such as soil moisture, fertilizer level, etc., to determine the states, which govern the distribution of the weed counts

Prevalence and Determinants of Sinus Problems in Farm and Non-Farm Populations of Rural Saskatchewan, Canada

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Canadian Institutes of Health Research - MOP-187209-POP-CCAA-11829Peer ReviewedAlthough sinus problems have long been recognized as the most common respiratory symptoms associated with agricultural work, there is a scarcity of recent studies and/or reliable estimates as to the true prevalence or risk factors of sinus problems related to farming. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of sinus problems in farming and non-farming rural populations and further investigate the association of individual (for example life-style, occupational), contextual (e.g., environmental), and important covariates (e.g., age, sex) with sinus problems. A large-scale cross-sectional study was conducted in farm and non-farm residents of rural Saskatchewan, Canada. A logistic regression model based on a generalized estimating equations approach were fitted to investigate the risk factors of sinus problems. Sinus problems were reported by 2755 (34.0%) of the 8101 subjects. Farm residents were more likely to spend their first year of life on farm compared with non-farm residents, and indicated a significantly lower risk of sinus problems. Meanwhile, occupational exposure to solvent and mold were associated with an increased risk of sinus problems. Some health conditions such as allergy and stomach acidity/reflux, family history, and female sex were also related to a higher risk of sinus problems. Farm residents had a significantly lower risk of sinus problems than non-farm residents, likely due to the exposure to farm specific environments in their early life

Modeling of longitudinal polytomous outcome from complex survey data - application to investigate an association between mental distress and non-malignant respiratory diseases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The data from longitudinal complex surveys based on multi-stage sampling designs contain cross-sectional dependencies among units due to clustered nature of the data and within-subject dependencies due to repeated measurements. Special statistical methods are required to analyze longitudinal complex survey data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Statistics Canada's longitudinal National Population Health Survey (NPHS) dataset from the first five cycles (1994/1995 to 2002/2003) was used to investigate the effects of demographic, social, life-style, and health-related factors on the longitudinal changes of mental distress scores among the NPHS participants who self-reported physician diagnosed respiratory diseases, specifically asthma and chronic bronchitis. The NPHS longitudinal sample includes 17,276 persons of all ages. In this report, participants 15 years and older (n = 14,713) were considered for statistical analysis. Mental distress, an ordinal outcome variable (categories: no/low, moderate, and high) was examined. Ordered logistic regression models based on the weighted generalized estimating equations approach were fitted to investigate the association between respiratory diseases and mental distress adjusting for other covariates of interest. Variance estimates of regression coefficients were computed by using bootstrap methods. The final model was used to predict the probabilities of prevalence of no/low, moderate or high mental distress scores.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Accounting for design effects does not vary the significance of the coefficients of the model. Participants suffering with chronic bronchitis were significantly at a higher risk (OR_adj= 1.37; 95% CI: 1.12-1.66) of reporting high levels of mental distress compared to those who did not self-report chronic bronchitis. There was no significant association between asthma and mental distress. There was a significant interaction between sex and self-perceived general health status indicating a dose-response relationship. Among females, the risk of mental distress increases with increasing deteriorating (from excellent to very poor) self-perceived general health.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A positive association was observed between the physician diagnosed self-reported chronic bronchitis and an increased prevalence of mental distress when adjusted for important covariates. Variance estimates of regression coefficients obtained from the sandwich estimator (i.e. not accounting for design effects) were similar to bootstrap variance estimates (i.e. accounting for design effects). Even though these two sets of variance estimates are similar, it is more appropriate to use bootstrap variance estimates.</p

Association of the TLR4 Asp299Gly polymorphism with lung function in relation to body mass index

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have shown conflicting results for the association between TLR4 polymorphism (Asp299Gly) and lung function. We investigated the influence of TLR4 Asp299Gly, a polymorphism, on lung function in a community population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2003, a cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess the respiratory health of residents living in and around the town of Humboldt, Saskatchewan, Canada. There were 2090 adults age 18-79 years who completed a questionnaire that included a medical and smoking history, as well as socio-economic and lifestyle variables. Genetic information and lung function test measurements were available on 1725 subjects (754 males and 971 females) of the 2090 respondents. These subjects were selected for further analysis to investigate the association between TLR4 Asp299Gly genotype and forced expiratory volume in the first second in liters (FEV₁), forced vital capacity in liters (FVC), FEV₁/FVC ratio, and forced expiratory flow rate in liters/second (FEF_25-75). Multivariable linear regression analysis was used to investigate associations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><b>A</b>djusted mean values of FEV₁and FVC were significantly different between TLR4 wild type and TLR4 variant groups [Mean ± S.E.: (TLR4 wild type - FEV₁: 3.18 ± 0.02, FVC: 3.95 ± 0.03; TLR4 variant - FEV₁: 3.31 ± 0.06, FVC: 4.14 ± 0.07)]. Based on multivariable regression analysis, we observed that body mass index (BMI) was associated with decreased FEV₁/FVC ratio and FEF_25-75in TLR4 variant group but not in wild type group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>BMI may modify the associations of TLR4 Asp299Gly polymorphism with FEV₁/FVC ratio and FEF_25-75.</p

Ethnicity and incidence of Hodgkin lymphoma in Canadian population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Research has shown that ethnicity is a significant predictor of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Variations in cancer incidence among ethnic groups in the same country can lead to important information in the search for etiological factors. Other risk factors important in the etiology of HL are medical history and exposure to pesticides. In this report we investigated the association between ethnicity and HL in the presence of medical history, and exposure to pesticides.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data resulting from a matched population-based case-control study conducted in six provinces of Canada (Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia) was analyzed to determine whether or not there was any association between ethnicity and incidence of HL when adjusted for personal medical history and pesticide exposure. Information on ethnicity, personal medical history, and pesticide exposure was collected by questionnaires via mail on 316 men diagnosed with HL; and on 1506 controls. A conditional logistic regression was utilized and results were presented as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In our study population, the distribution of ethnic groups was: 38.5% North American, 15% British, 8.4% Western European, 8.2% Eastern European, 1.7% Asian, 1.4% Scandinavian and 27% of other ethnic origin. Compared to North Americans (i) the risk of HL was greater among the Eastern European descendents (Odds Ratio (OR_adj): 1.82; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 3.25) and Western European (OR_adj: 1.62; 95% CI: 0.95–2.76) descent population (borderline significance at 5% level); and (ii) the risk of HL was lower in Asian descents. Diagnosis with measles (OR_adj: 0.72, 95% C.I.: 0.53–0.98) and/or positive history of allergy desensitization shots (OR_adj: 0.55, 95% C.I.: 0.30–0.99) were negatively associated with the incidence of HL, while diagnosis with acne (OR_adj: 2.12, 95% C.I.: 1.19–3.78), shingles (OR_adj: 2.41, 95% C.I.: 1.38–4.22) and positive family history of cancer (OR_adj: 1.93, 95% C.I.: 1.40–2.65) increased the risk of HL. Exposure to individual herbicide dichlorprop showed an increased risk of HL (OR_adj: 6.35, 95% C.I.: 1.56–25.92).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Canada, compared to North Americans descendents, the risk of HL was significantly greater among the Eastern European and Western European descent population. Our results related to association between ethnicity and HL support the findings reported by other researchers. Our data showed that subjects who were diagnosed with measles or had allergy desensitization shots negatively associated with the incidence of HL; and other medical conditions, ever diagnosed with acne, and positive family history of cancer were positively associated with the incidence of HL.</p

Clustering of cancer among families of cases with Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL), Multiple Myeloma (MM), Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma (NHL), Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS) and control subjects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A positive family history of chronic diseases including cancer can be used as an index of genetic and shared environmental influences. The tumours studied have several putative risk factors in common including occupational exposure to certain pesticides and a positive family history of cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted population-based studies of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), Multiple Myeloma (MM), non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma (NHL), and Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS) among male incident case and control subjects in six Canadian provinces. The postal questionnaire was used to collect personal demographic data, a medical history, a lifetime occupational history, smoking pattern, and the information on family history of cancer. The family history of cancer was restricted to first degree relatives and included relationship to the index subjects and the types of tumours diagnosed among relatives. The information was collected on 1528 cases (HL (n = 316), MM (n = 342), NHL (n = 513), STS (n = 357)) and 1506 age ± 2 years and province of residence matched control subjects. Conditional logistic regression analyses adjusted for the matching variables were conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that most families were cancer free, and a minority included two or more affected relatives. HL [(OR_adj(95% CI) <b>1.79 (1.33, 2.42)]</b>, MM <b>(1.38(1.07, 1.78))</b>, NHL <b>(1.43 (1.15, 1.77)</b>), and STS cases <b>(1.30(1.00, 1.68)) </b>had higher incidence of cancer if any first degree relative was affected with cancer compared to control families. Constructing mutually exclusive categories combining "family history of cancer" (yes, no) and "pesticide exposure ≥10 hours per year" (yes, no) indicated that a positive family history was important for HL <b>(2.25(1.61, 3.15))</b>, and for the combination of the two exposures increased risk for MM <b>(1.69(1.14,2.51))</b>. Also, a positive family history of cancer both with <b>(1.72 (1.21, 2.45)) </b>and without pesticide exposure <b>(1.43(1.12, 1.83)) </b>increased risk of NHL.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HL, MM, NHL, and STS cases had higher incidence of cancer if any first degree relative affected with cancer compared to control families. A positive family history of cancer and/or shared environmental exposure to agricultural chemicals play an important role in the development of cancer.</p

Access to Specialist Care in Rural Saskatchewan: The Saskatchewan Rural Health Study

The role of place has emerged as an important factor in determining people’s health experiences. Rural populations experience an excess in mortality and morbidity compared to those in urban settings. One of the factors thought to contribute to this rural-urban health disparity is access to healthcare. The objective of this analysis was to examine access to specialized medical care services and several possible determinants of access to services in a distinctly rural population in Canada. In winter 2010, we conducted a baseline mail survey of 11,982 households located in rural Saskatchewan, Canada. We obtained 4620 completed household surveys. A key informant for each household responded to questions about access to medical specialists and the exact distance traveled to these services. Correlates of interest included the location of the residence within the province and within each household, socioeconomic status, household smoking status, median age of household residents, number of non-respiratory chronic conditions and number of current respiratory conditions. Analyses were conducted using log binomial regression for the outcome of interest. The overall response rate was 52%. Of households who required a visit to a medical specialist in the past 12 months, 23% reported having difficulty accessing specialist care. The magnitude of risk for encountering difficulty accessing medical specialist care services increased with the greatest distance categories. Accessing specialist care professionals by rural residents was particularly difficult for persons with current respiratory conditions

Association between Co-Morbidities and the Prevalence of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness over a Four-Year Period

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a common problem in general the Canadian population. It can effect day-to-day activities and is also associated with several health issues. This study aimed to investigate the association between co-morbidities and the prevalence of EDS over a four-year period in adults living in two First Nation communities. Data collected during the First Nations Lung Health Project (FNLHP) conducted in two Cree First Nation communities in Saskatchewan in 2012&ndash;2013 (Cycle 1) and 2016 (Cycle 2) were used for this analysis. There were 859 participants aged 18 years and older at baseline (Cycle 1) and 821 participants aged 18 years and older at follow-up (Cycle 2) who completed the interviewer-administered questionnaire. An Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score &gt; 10 was considered to be abnormal and identified as a case of EDS at both time points. A multilevel logistic regression model using a generalized estimating equations approach was used to analyze the data. The prevalence of EDS at baseline (Cycle 1) was 11.2% (91/815) and 10.0% (80/803) at follow-up (Cycle 2). Based on the predicted model, longitudinal change in the prevalence of EDS was &minus;0.11% for 358 individuals who participated in both cycles. There were 49% males at baseline and 48% males at follow-up. Multivariate regression model results revealed that crowding, shortness of breath, loud snoring, chronic lung disease, depression and gastric reflux were the main significant predictors of EDS. In addition, the interaction between sex and age was significant. Some of the co-morbid conditions were associated with EDS. Therefore, managing such conditions requires considerations in strategies to decrease the prevalence of daytime sleepiness