FAPRI 1997 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute develops a long-term outlook for the world agricultural sector once each year. While the initial steps to develop the new baseline start as soon as the previous year’s baseline is completed, the work begins in earnest in September and October with a discussion of policy and macroeconomic assumptions as well as a review of the models to be used in the upcoming exercise. The preliminary baseline is developed in November and that preliminary baseline is then shared among a number of reviewers. During the first or second week of January, more than 100 respondents are brought together for a two-day review process. Each segment of the baseline is presented and examined in a frank and open exchange of views. Subsequent to that review, the preliminary baseline is finalized

An Economic Analysis of U.S. Broiler Industry: A Structural Bayesian VAR Approach

The U.S. broiler industry has seen major structural changes due to higher degrees of vertical integration and industry concentration. These structural changes have influenced the adjustment characteristics of key production variables to external disturbances. We examine these adjustment characteristics to external shocks in a dynamic context. A VAR approach was used to simulate the impulse response functions and forecast error variances. The results show that a positive feed cost shock leads to gradual declines in production and lagged increases in wholesale broiler prices. Shocks to wholesale prices yield a tepid production response. However, a sudden increase in production depresses the wholesale price of broilers. These results imply that feed cost increases pay a major role in the growth of the U.S. broiler industry. Improvements in feed conversion ratio, advances in production technology and adoption of better risk management practices at the national and farm level may help minimize the influence of feed cost

FAPRI 1997 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute develops a long-term outlook for the world agricultural sector once each year. While the initial steps to develop the new baseline start as soon as the previous year’s baseline is completed, the work begins in earnest in September and October with a discussion of policy and macroeconomic assumptions as well as a review of the models to be used in the upcoming exercise. The preliminary baseline is developed in November and that preliminary baseline is then shared among a number of reviewers. During the first or second week of January, more than 100 respondents are brought together for a two-day review process. Each segment of the baseline is presented and examined in a frank and open exchange of views. Subsequent to that review, the preliminary baseline is finalized.</p