Philosophy of Modeling: Neglected Pages of History

The work done in the philosophy of modeling by Vaihinger (1876), Craik (1943), Rosenblueth and Wiener (1945), Apostel (1960), Minsky (1965), Klaus (1966) and Stachowiak (1973) is still almost completely neglected in the mainstream literature. However, this work seems to contain original ideas worth to be discussed. For example, the idea that diverse functions of models can be better structured as follows: in fact, models perform only a single function – they are replacing their target systems, but for different purposes. Another example: the idea that all of cognition is cognition in models or by means of models. Even perception, reflexes and instincts (animal and human) can be best analyzed as modeling. The paper presents an analysis of the above-mentioned work

Explanation and Understanding in a Model-Based Model of Cognition

This article is an experiment. Consider a minimalist model of cognition (models, means of model-building and history of their evolution). In this model, explanation could be defined as a means allowing to advance: production of models and means of model-building (thus, yielding 1st class understanding), exploration and use of them (2nd class), and/or teaching (3rd class). At minimum, 3rd class understanding is necessary for an explanation to be respected

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.Zero-inflation, Overdispersion, EM algorithm, Automobile insurance, A priori ratemaking.

Bivariate Poisson and Diagonal Inflated Bivariate Poisson Regression Models in R

In this paper we present an R package called bivpois for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of bivariate and diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression models. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is implemented. Inflated models allow for modelling both over-dispersion (or under-dispersion) and negative correlation and thus they are appropriate for a wide range of applications. Extensions of the algorithms for several other models are also discussed. Detailed guidance and implementation on simulated and real data sets using bivpois package is provided.

Returns to Education During and After the Economic Crisis: Evidence from Latvia 2006–2012

We employ EU-SILC micro data for Latvia to study how returns to education changed during the economic crisis of 2008–2009 and afterwards. We found that returns to education increased significantly during the crisis and decreased slightly during the subsequent economic recovery. The counter-cyclical effect was evident in nearly all population groups. After the crisis, education became more associated than before with a longer working week and a higher employment probability. Furthermore, we show that returns to education in Latvia are generally higher in the capital city and its suburbs than outside the capital city region, as well as for citizens of Latvia than for resident non-citizens and citizens of other countries, but lower for males and young people. Wage differential models reveal a relatively large wage premium for higher education and a rather small one for secondary education. Estimates obtained with instrumental variable (IV) models significantly exceed the OLS estimates

Treating missing values in INAR(1) models

Time series models for count data have found increased interest in recent days. The existing literature refers to the case of data that have been fully observed. In the present paper, methods for estimating the parameters of the first-order integer-valued autoregressive model in the presence of missing data are proposed. The first method maximizes a conditional likelihood constructed via the observed data based on the k-step-ahead conditional distributions to account for the gaps in the data. The second approach is based on an iterative scheme where missing values are imputed in order to update the estimated parameters. The first method is useful when the predictive distributions have simple forms. We derive in full details this approach when the innovations are assumed to follow a finite mixture of Poisson distributions. The second method is applicable when there are not closed form expressions for the conditional likelihood or they are hard to derive. Simulation results and comparisons of the methods are reported. The proposed methods are applied to a data set concerning syndromic surveillance during the Athens 2004 Olympic Games.Imputation; Markov Chain EM algorithm; mixed Poisson; discrete valued time series

Natural data structure extracted from neighborhood-similarity graphs

'Big' high-dimensional data are commonly analyzed in low-dimensions, after performing a dimensionality-reduction step that inherently distorts the data structure. For the same purpose, clustering methods are also often used. These methods also introduce a bias, either by starting from the assumption of a particular geometric form of the clusters, or by using iterative schemes to enhance cluster contours, with uncontrollable consequences. The goal of data analysis should, however, be to encode and detect structural data features at all scales and densities simultaneously, without assuming a parametric form of data point distances, or modifying them. We propose a novel approach that directly encodes data point neighborhood similarities as a sparse graph. Our non-iterative framework permits a transparent interpretation of data, without altering the original data dimension and metric. Several natural and synthetic data applications demonstrate the efficacy of our novel approach