Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Mesh

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model on the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix) to forecast seven atmospheric variables for arbitrarily long lead times on a global approximately 110 km mesh at 3h time resolution. In comparison to state-of-the-art machine learning weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times its skill is only about one day behind the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report successive forecast improvements resulting from model design and data-related decisions, such as switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that are successfully applied to propagate global weather patterns across our planet. Without any loss of spectral power after two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate stable and realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations. Our parsimonious DLWP-HPX model is research-friendly and potentially well-suited for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting

Latent State Inference in a Spatiotemporal Generative Model

Knowledge of the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed, interventional actions. The inference of these factors without supervision given time series data remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatio-temporal processes, including wave propagations and weather dynamics, and assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. We apply a novel DIstributed, Spatio-Temporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture, DISTANA, which learns a generative model in such domains. DISTANA requires fewer parameters, and yields more accurate predictions than temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches on a 2D circular wave prediction task. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive hidden local causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and uses the self inferred information to improve its own prediction of temperature. We are convinced that the retrospective inference of latent states in generative RNN architectures will play an essential role in future research on causal inference and explainable systems.Comment: As submitted to the 35th conference of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-21

Inferring, predicting, and denoising causal wave dynamics

The novel DISTributed Artificial neural Network Architecture (DISTANA) is a generative, recurrent graph convolution neural network. It implements a grid or mesh of locally parameterizable laterally connected network modules. DISTANA is specifically designed to identify the causality behind spatially distributed, non-linear dynamical processes. We show that DISTANA is very well-suited to denoise data streams, given that re-occurring patterns are observed, significantly outperforming alternative approaches, such as temporal convolution networks and ConvLSTMs, on a complex spatial wave propagation benchmark. It produces stable and accurate closed-loop predictions even over hundreds of time steps. Moreover, it is able to effectively filter noise -- an ability that can be improved further by applying denoising autoencoder principles or by actively tuning latent neural state activities retrospectively. Results confirm that DISTANA is ready to model real-world spatio-temporal dynamics such as brain imaging, supply networks, water flow, or soil and weather data patterns.Comment: As accepted by the 29th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN20