Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established.

Darstellung und Kristallstruktur von Bis-(N-Methymydroxylamido(1-)-O.N)(N-methyl-N-oxo-dithiocarbamato-O.S)-oxo-molybdän(VI)

The reaction of [MoO2((CH3)HN-O)2] and N-methylhydroxylammoniumchloride in an aqueous suspension with CS2 yields red crystals of the analytical composition MOC4H14N3O4S2. The crystal structure has been determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis. The compound crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P21/c, with cell constants a= 1333.2(3), b = 814.2(2), c = 2179.8(6) pm, β = 105.42(2)°, and Z = 8. The final R-value is 4.5% for 2965 unique reflexions. The structure consists of two crystallographically independent neutral complexes of molybdenum(VI). The geometry about the molybdenum is a distorted pentagonal bipyramid containing a terminal oxygen atom, two N-methylhydroxylamido(1-) ligands coordinated via the O-and N-atoms and an N-methyl-N-oxo-dithiocarbamato(2-) ligand forming a planar five membered ring with the molybdenum(VI) center (O,S-coordination)

Trade policy in West Germany.

Außenwirtschaftspolitik; Deutschland;

Energy Storage Needs in Interconnected Systems Using the Example of Germany and Austria

The share of renewable energies on the net electricity consumption is rising steadily. Especially intermittent, non-controllable sources like wind and sun are gaining importance. With an installed amount of non-controllable power that exceeds the yearly peak load, situations can occur with a surplus of energy in electricity supply systems. This surplus will rise strongly with the share of fluctuating renewable energies on the net electricity consumption. A lot of studies and experts come to the conclusion that energy storage will be needed to handle these surpluses. The questions that still have to be answered are when and how. Especially the German electricity system will have very high storage needs because of a very strong and fast development of wind and solar power. There are a lot of technologies and approaches to overcome this problem. However, Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) systems are up to date the most efficient and economic bulk energy storage technology. On the one side there are no high potentials in natural sites for the installation of PHES schemes in Germany. On the other side the Austrian PHES system has still a very high potential. Up so far, the prospects are used just to a small amount. Especially the seasonal Hydro Energy Storage (HES) still holds a very high potential. In this paper the combination of the Austrian and the German energy supply system will be investigated with respect to the development of renewable energies. The overall energy storage needs are evaluated for each country as well as in the combined system, taking also into account the development and the influence of the transmission system capacity between the two countries

A Sensitive Search for [N II]205 μm Emission in a z = 6.4 Quasar Host Galaxy

We present a sensitive search for the 3P1 → 3P0 ground-state fine structure line at 205 μm of ionized nitrogen ([N II]205μm) in one of the highest-redshift quasars (J1148+5251 at z = 6.42) using the IRAM 30 m telescope. The line is not detected at a (3σ) depth of 0.47 Jy km s^−1, corresponding to a [N II]205μm luminosity limit of L[N II] 7) using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, for which the highly excited rotational transitions of CO will be shifted outside the accessible (sub-)millimeter bands

Submillimeter Polarimetry with PolKa, a reflection-type modulator for the APEX telescope

Imaging polarimetry is an important tool for the study of cosmic magnetic fields. In our Galaxy, polarization levels of a few up to $\sim$10\% are measured in the submillimeter dust emission from molecular clouds and in the synchrotron emission from supernova remnants. Only few techniques exist to image the distribution of polarization angles, as a means of tracing the plane-of-sky projection of the magnetic field orientation. At submillimeter wavelengths, polarization is either measured as the differential total power of polarization-sensitive bolometer elements, or by modulating the polarization of the signal. Bolometer arrays such as LABOCA at the APEX telescope are used to observe the continuum emission from fields as large as \sim0\fdg2 in diameter. %Here we present the results from the commissioning of PolKa, a polarimeter for Here we present PolKa, a polarimeter for LABOCA with a reflection-type waveplate of at least 90\% efficiency. The modulation efficiency depends mainly on the sampling and on the angular velocity of the waveplate. For the data analysis the concept of generalized synchronous demodulation is introduced. The instrumental polarization towards a point source is at the level of $\sim0.1$\%, increasing to a few percent at the $-10$db contour of the main beam. A method to correct for its effect in observations of extended sources is presented. Our map of the polarized synchrotron emission from the Crab nebula is in agreement with structures observed at radio and optical wavelengths. The linear polarization measured in OMC1 agrees with results from previous studies, while the high sensitivity of LABOCA enables us to also map the polarized emission of the Orion Bar, a prototypical photon-dominated region

Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate

Most institutional and individual portfolios are very undiversified in real estate: many hold no real estate at all, many have holdings highly concentrated in certain regions or types of real estate. The risk of these concentrated holdings is not hedged. We propose here that cash-settled futures and options markets be opened on real estate to better allow diversification and hedging, and show that these markets solve problems that have hampered other real estate hedging media in the past. Related institutions, such as home equity insurance, might develop around the futures and options markets. The establishment of these markets is likely to increase the quantity of reproducible real estate, and lower rents on real estate. It may also reduce the amplitude of speculative real estate price movements and dampen the business cycle

Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established