Electrification in Peer-to-Peer Society – A New Narrative for Sustainable Futures

’Electrification in Peer-to-Peer Society – A New Narrative for Sustainable Futures’ is a time travel journey to a future when renewable energy, electrification, and a peer-to-peer ethos are intertwined. The use of fossil fuel resources is ending. An emission-free vision for 2050 is illustrated through four transformational scenarios: Radical Startups, Value-Driven Techemoths, Green Do-It-Yourself Engineers, and New Consciousness. The scenarios serve as testbeds for what kind of futures we want to live in. Futures have to be explored with a long perspective, but the decisions for preferred futures have to be made today. All major sectors in society have to be transformed to stay within the limits of the Paris climate goals. This book highlights results from the Neo-Carbon Energy project, addressing all those interested in future visions, societal changes and technological advances. It can also be used as teaching material, or as inspiration for concrete steps towards the post-fossil era and a carbonneutral circular economy – for governments, companies, and citizens

Tulevaisuudentutkimus tutuksi – Perusteita ja menetelmiä

Meillä kaikilla on kyky kuvitella tulevaisuuksia. Ennakoimalla tuotetaan tulevaisuuksia koskevaa tietoa. Ennakointitiedon voi mieltää demokraattisen dialogin välineenä, sillä se tarjoaa ymmärrettävän kehikon monimutkaisille ilmiöille. Artikkelissa esitetään, että ennakointi eri aloilla ja yhä useamman tahon työssä lisää mahdollisuuksia entistä syvällisempään tulevaisuustyöhön. Samalla ennakointi voi saada uusia kekseliäitä muotoja ja levitä uusille aloille yhä uusia toimijoita innostaen. Tulevaisuustyöskentelyjä voi arvioida vuorovaikutteisuuden, laaja-alaisuuden ja monipuolisuuden näkökulmasta – kansalaisnäkökulmasta. Jos kotimainen ennakointikulttuuri alkaa vakiinnuttaa asemaansa, ollaan ennakointiin havahtumassa enenevästi myös maailmalla. Ehkäpä todellinen tulevaisuustyö kansainvälisesti onkin vasta alkamassa. Globaali vuorovaikutus kohti tulevaisuuksia on mahdollista globaalissa maailmassa. Tässä artikkelissa painotetaan näkemystä, jonka mukaan tulevaisuudet kuuluvat kaikille.</p

Towards a ‘new’ political arithmetic : An assessment of the indicators of sustainable development

This study examines the urge to construct indicators of sustainable development that has been outlined in the Agenda 21 of the Rio Earth Summit 1992, re-expressed in the Rio+20 Declaration 'The Future We Want' in 2012, and discussed in the work by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (2009). An indicator of sustainable development (SDI) is a measure expected to signal whether a society is on a sustainable path, or not, by organising large data sets into easily readable illustrations for the purposes of policy-makers. The study positions into the earlier work of sociologists of science and philosophers such as Hacking and Latour who have aimed to understand the contexts in which knowledge is formed. For policymakers and the wider public, understanding the limitations of these different measurement approaches can be beneficial. This study suggests that SDIs can be considered analogous to evidence-based autonomous models that can be framed in various ways. One-dimensional indicators select a single bottom-line against which other considerations are judged; composite SDIs typically aim to balance environmental, social and economic considerations; and monetary-based indicators attempt to incorporate ecological and social losses into economic costs. Depending on the choice of approach, a SDI may either adhere to the principle of ‘strong sustainability’ according to which no ecological harm is acceptable, or ‘weak sustainability’ that accepts substitutability between different types of capital, including the loss of natural capital. However, a general weakness of several SDIs has been their inability to signal when ecological thresholds are crossed. Under energy and resource constraints, these efforts reflect an aspiration, borrowing the terms of seventeenth century political economists, the need to explore means towards a ‘new’ political arithmetic. This study aims to observe what choices researchers and political institutions have and have made in adapting to the realities of climate change and other ecological constraints. The study will argue that the depiction of ‘sustainable development’ may be a worthy ideal but for measurement purposes of actual ecological or social thresholds, a notion of multiple meanings has challenged the work of scientists who have been unable to agree over a ‘proper’ indicator. By assessing the theoretical underpinnings of science, the aim of this study is provide common ground to the multidisciplinary subject matter of sustainability for natural and social scientists who often conduct research in their separate research strands. Furthermore, scientific work itself follows societal progress and is limited by theoretical underpinnings that inevitably also influence the attempts to construct meaningful indicators. The study observes how in the context of political decision-making, institutions that act as gatekeepers that shape the understanding of politicians about the choices they have, even if these institutions are constrained by ideological discourses as well as existing institutional arrangements. For the purpose of the measurement of sustainable development, existing cross-country measures such as the GDP have serious weaknesses. At least in the advanced economies, while the measurement of aggregate economic growth may remain useful, it may be less relevant than it was in the contexts of modernisation and post-Second World War reconstruction when the current UN System of National Accounts was adopted. However, pragmatic challenges also undermine some of the alternative indicators, including the lack of available data as well as the need for institutional capacity and improved theoretical understanding about sustainability. Nevertheless, it is suggested that states could engage more closely to explore the possibility to use SDIs as a new technology of governance. For this purpose, the study also examines indicators of climate change, material flows and energy. It is also suggested that decision-makers may need to better adopt a perspective of systemic thinking that adopts an ecological view that also internalises social considerations rather than macroeconomic theories that treat ecological and social costs as externalities.Tämä tutkielma tarkastelee kestävän kehityksen mittareita ja niiden rakentamistapoja. Tarve kyseisten mittareiden kehittämiselle on mainittu sekä Rio 1992 -kokouksen Agenda 21 -toimintaohjelmassa sekä Rio+20-kokouksen päätösasiakirjassa vuonna 2012. Hyvinvoinnin mittaamisen problematiikkaa on käsitellyt lisäksi ns. Stiglitzin komitea (2009). Tutkielma käsittelee kestävän kehityksen mittareita malleina, jotka kokoavat laajojakin tietomääriä esityksiksi päättäjille ja virkamiehille. Kestävän kehityksen mittareiden odotetaan paljastavan yhteiskunnan kestävyyden tilan. Lainaten 1600-luvun taloustieteilijöiden käsitteistöä, tutkielma esittää että mittausyritykset ilmentävät 'uudenlaista' poliittista aritmetiikkaa, toisin sanoen laskentatapoja, joissa energia-, resurssi-, ilmasto- ja ekologisen kestävyyden kysymykset otetaan mukaan taloudelliseen päätöksentekoon. Aikaisemmin muun muassa Hacking ja Latour ovat tutkineet tieteen- ja tiedonsosiologian tutkimusperinteissä tilanteita, joissa tietoa muodostetaan. Lisäksi myös instituutiot, jotka käyttävät, rakentavat tai jättävät käyttämättä mittareita, muokkaavat poliittisten päätöksentekijöiden ymmärrystä. Instituutioita rajoittavat ideologiset diskurssit, organisaatioiden omat tavoitteet, säännöt ja kulttuuri, mikä tekee niistä portinvartijoita kansalaisten ja tieteellisen tiedon välissä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on lisätä luonnontieteilijöiden, yhteiskuntatieteilijöiden ja päättäjien keskinäistä ymmärrystä siitä, miten ja miksi kestävää kehitystä tulisi mitata. Työssään kestävyyden mallintamiseksi tutkijat ja instituutiot eivät ole saavuttaneet yhteisymmärrystä 'yhdestä oikeasta' mittarista, mikä saattaa osittain johtua kestävän kehityksen monitulkintaisesta käsitteestä. Yksiulotteiset mittarit viestivät kestävyydestä yhdellä mitattavalla ulottuvuudella. Erilaiset indeksit puolestaan usein yhdistävät yhteiskunnan ekologisen, sosiaalisen ja taloudellisen tilan mittaamisen - kestävän kehityksen käsitettä mukaillen. Varallisuuden tai pääoman käsitteitä hyödyntävät mittarit pyrkivät laskemaan hinnan ympäristö- tai sosiaalisille haitoille. Tällaisessa kokonaisvarallisuuden arvioinnissa 'vahvan kestävyyden' mittarit vastustavat ympäristön tilan heikkenemistä, kun taas 'heikon kestävyyden' periaatetta noudattelevat mittarit sallivat luontopääoman heikkenemisen. Useiden mittareiden ongelmana on niiden kyvyttömyys osoittaa, koska ihmisen toiminta heikentää ympäristön tilaa peruuttamattomasti. Tämä on haaste muun muassa silloin, kun ilmastonmuutoksesta pyritään viestimään ymmärrettävällä tavalla. Tuloksina tutkielma esittää että monet nykyisin käytettävät mittarit ovat puutteellisia kestävän kehityksen tavoitteen saavuttamiseksi, ja että mittareiden rajoitusten ymmärtäminen olisi hyödyllistä päättäjille ja kansalaisille. BKT ja sitä mukaileva YK:n kansantalouksien tilinpitojärjetelmä (SNA) otettiin käyttöön toisen maailmansodan jälleenrakennuksen aikoihin, mutta niiden hyödyllisyyden voi nähdä tänä päivänä rajallisena - erityisesti kehittyneissä talouksissa. Vaihtoehtoisten mittaustapojen käyttöönottoa haittaavat käytännölliset ongelmat, kuten rajallinen kansainvälinen ymmärrys kestävyyskysymyksistä sekä mittaustulosten puute tietyissä valtioissa. Työ esittää, että puutteistaan huolimatta valtionhallintojen kannattaisi harkita kestävyysmittareiden käyttöönottoa päätöksenteon tueksi. Tämä edistäisi päätöksentekoa joka lähtee liikkeelle luonnontieteellisestä tiedosta ja ottaa lisäksi huomioon inhimillisen hyvinvoinnin. Perinteisissä makroekonomisissa malleissa sosiaaliset ja ympäristövaikutukset on nähty lähinnä taloudellisen toiminnan ulkoisvaikutuksina

Neo-Carbon Energy World : What Opportunities for Chile? Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique IV

This report presents the results of the “Neo-Carbon Energy World – What Opportunities for Chile?”, a futures clinique organised at the Chilean Intellectual Property Institute INAPI in Santiago de Chile 24th October 2016, jointly by Finland Futures Research Centre of the University of Turku and Consejo Chileno Prospectiva y Estrategia (CChPE). Chile is a case study conducted in the foresight part of the Neo-Carbon Energy project. Chile is a country with robust renewable energy resources, which has received high attention by international investors and has led to a dramatic increase in the uptake of solar energy in the country. Chile is also a pioneer in economic development in Latin America, thanks to its steady political and economic conditions. The country keeps on investing in education to catalyze socio-economic development, but remains underpinned by the deepest inequalities in OECD countries

Radical Transformation in a Distributed Society - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050

This working paper presents four transformative scenarios of Neo-Carbon Energy, a research project exploring the futures of an economy based on a new energy system and peer-to-peer society in 2050. The project is one of the strategic research openings of Tekes – the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation.The neo-carbon scenarios envision possible futures in which renewable energy is produced in a distributed manner, and in which energy is low-cost, or even no-cost. In each scenario energy is produced mainly by solar and wind and stored in batteries, synthetic methane, and other synthetic hydrocarbons. Renewable energy is used for economic activities, and carbon dioxide from the air is used as a source for plastics, chemicals and medicine. As a whole, this would transform the economy and change its energy system into one that is emissions-free, efficient, low-cost, and sustainable.The scenarios have been formed using two axes and their opposite values. The X axis is called “Peer-to-peer” and its end values are Corporate (“centralised”) peer-to-peer and Neo-Communal (distributed) peer-to-peer. The Y axis is called “Ecological awareness” and its end values are Pragmatic ecology and Deep ecology. The resulting four scenarios are called “Radical Startups”, “Value-Driven Techemoths”, “Green DIY Engineers” and “New Consciousness”. The scenarios consist of three different components: a scenario narrative, the role of energy in the scenario and a pathway for Finland until the year 2050. The energy solutions and business practices can vary from scenario to scenario, and also the neo-carbon system itself can be realized in different ways.Radical Startups. Economy is driven by networks of startup enterprises. Startups are usually communities-cum-companies, and there are no clear lines between work and leisure, and between different startups. Energy production is highly distributed, and many startups have specialised in energy – and especially in energy services.Value-Driven Techemoths. Economy is dominated by a few technology giants or “techemoths”, which offer resources, facilities, and platforms for self-organising employees, as well as all the basic amenities from housing to leisure to education. Techemoths have invested in bold R&D projects, especially in energy, and have a central role in developing the energy infrastructure.Green DIY Engineers. Society is organized around thriving local communities to survive an ecological collapse. Do-It-Yourself economy and practical mindsets flourish, and smart scarcity have ensured many communities a relative abundance. Energy is produced mostly locally and communities are largely self-sufficient.New Consciousness. Robotisation and ubiquitous ICTs have developed the farthest. Society is organized as global collaboration through open sharing of resources and information. Humans share a collective tech-enabled consciousness through omnipresent communications, virtual reality, and rudimentary brain-to-brain communication. Energy systems are both distributed and centralized.These four scenarios provide a holistic framework that describes the Neo-Carbon Energy world in 2050. As so-called metascenarios, this framework can be further utilised to make more detailed observations of alternative futures on the themes of renewable energy and peer-to-peer systems from different viewpoints, to address several, more specific questions. Therefore, scenarios are specific testbeds for future worlds. These Neo-Carbon Energy scenarios are tested through futures cliniques and other workshops, such as a gaming session that utilised the causal layered analysis (CLA) method.1 The potential of futures based on neo-carbon energy is also intended to be explored in the context of the case countries of this project.2The aim of scenario construction is to support decision-making. The relevance and usability of scenarios is dependent on how the pathways envisioned in them are translated to experts across fields, policy-makers, and ordinary citizens. It is also important to identify pioneering actors in the scenarios that can actually make them to be realised. For this purpose, a related actor analysis has been conducted (Similä et al. 2016). As socio-cultural scenarios about energy, their significance to economy and the energy landscape is further reflected in an analysis about future electricity markets (Salovaara et al. 2016). Transformative foresight characterizes the different future alternatives envisioned in these scenarios. As a tool of science-communication, they explore possible futures and related changes, that are radically different from the present, influenced by technology and the choices we make, as actors in our society.Moving towards a neo-carbonized world provides room for businesses to innovate. Emerging needs, some of which are outlined in the scenarios, result from values and lifestyles that are changing, the falling costs of renewable energy, and the emergence of novel technologies. New products and services, not to forget social practices, can span from simple ideas to complex solutions. Space for new opportunities is created, and as a consequence, entirely new industrial structures could emerge to transform the economy.</p

Energy Models and Scenarios in the Era of Climate Change : Briefing Report

This report “Energy models and scenarios in the era of climate change” has aimed to improve understanding on how energy models and scenarios are used and deployed, how dominant scenarios and future forecast can be challenged, in order to build up of capacity for the development of alternative energy scenarios. In relation to discussions about energy and climate change, the report summarizes experiences and benefits from past energy policy research in the Mekong region in Southeast Asia, Eastern Africa and Nordic countries. The report is a final report to the research project Access to Sustainable Energy for All

CLEAN DISRUPTION FOR ABUNDANT FUTURES : Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique III

This report presents the results of an International Symposium "Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures", which was organised as a futures clinique of the Neo-Carbon Energy project and Summer School of the Finland Futures Academy, as well as Helsinki Node’s Millennium Forum at Museum of Contemporary Arts Kiasma, Helsinki, June 7–8, 2016. The two-day futures clinique focused on the topics of energy, internet, clean disruption, new organisation practices and futures of communities. The objective of the event was to address possible fu-tures and related societal transition towards the convergence of energy and internet. In the clinique, abundant futures defines the stance towards futures, as ample resources would be available in such a system. This, in turn, affects social relations and communities of the future. The clinique generated futures dialogue that consisted of expert lectures, commenting and discus-sion, as well as intermittent working sessions in small groups. The keynote speeches gave input for the group work, where participants probed the abundant futures in six breakout groups. The four transformational scenarios of the Neo-Carbon Energy project were used as material for the groups’ foresight work. This dialogue and elaborations on abundant futures and renewable energy are documented in this report. Four recurring themes can be identified from the group work. Perhaps the most common is the idea of so-called “post-institutional” future of tribal-like communities. Another frequent theme is the change of the concept of work through i.e. automatisation and hybridisation of work and leisure. The third theme describes immaterial values and the significance of meaningfulness. Finally, the fourth theme identified in the results addresses the possible social drawbacks of the future. Conse-quently, the clean disruption for abundant futures is a cornucopia with huge potential, but by no means automatically only beneficial. Critical mindset is needed both for the decision phase and implementation ways of clean disruptive technologies, practices, lifestyles, and regulation

Argentinian Energy Landscapes : Case Study of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project

This report is a country study of Argentina of the foresight part of Neo-Carbon Energy project. In this research project, a new renewable energy based energy production, storage system and prod-ucts are being developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). In the neo-carbon system, energy is produced mainly by solar and wind technologies, can be stored into various forms, and fossil-based products are substituted with synthetic processes based on renewable electricity. These processes are also called power-to-X technologies. Energy futures do not only concern energy production technologies because an energy transition affects the whole-of-society. The future energy system and energy landscape are influenced by people’s values and lifestyles. Therefore, it is important to explore different scenarios of how neo-carbon energy system can affect a society, businesses, individual’s lives and relationships. In this case study, Argentina’s renewable energy futures are explored and discussed. The study also presents results of an expert survey and explores the potential of neo-carbon energy solutions in Argentina

La Electrificación en la Sociedad Entre Pares – Una Nueva Narrativa para Futuros Sostenibles

“La Electrificación en la Sociedad Entre Pares – Una Nueva Narrativa para Futuros Sostenibles” es un viaje en el tiempo hacia un futuro en el que la energía renovable, la electrificación y un ethos entre pares se encuentran entrelazados. El uso de recursos combustibles fósiles está acabándose.Una visión libre de emisiones para el 2050 es ilustrada a través de cuatro escenarios transformacionales: Startup radicales, Tecnogigantes (techemoths) orientados al valor, Ingenieros verdes hazlo-tú-mismo y Nueva conciencia. Los escenarios sirven como bancos de pruebas para el tipo de futuros en los que deseamos vivir. Los futuros tienen que ser explorados con una perspectiva de largo plazo, pero las decisiones en cuanto a los futuros que preferimos deben ser tomadas hoy. Todos los principales sectores de la sociedad tienen que ser transformados para mantenernos dentro de los límites de los objetivos climáticos de París.Este libro destaca los resultados del Proyecto Energía Neo-Carbono, y se dirige a todos los interesados en las visiones del futuro, cambios societales y avances tecnológicos. También puede ser usado como material de enseñanza, o como fuente de inspiración para tomar pasos concretos hacia la era pos-fósil y una economía circular neutra en carbono – para los gobiernos, empresas y ciudadanos.1era edició

Prospectiva y estudios de futuro para el desarrollo

Los escenarios son herramientas para aprender sobre el futuro, es un proceso de aprender, deben ser transformadores, reencuadrados, contextualizados. Los pioneros y los líderes transformadores pueden creer los futuros a la vanguardia. Para mejorar la preparación para una transición energética tenemos que abrazar la crisis y crear la resiliencia de futuros. Eso es gobernanza híbrida anticipatoria. Un mundo energético emergente debe anticiparse y explorarse de manera abierta, amplia y sistémica. La anticipación es necesaria para mapear alternativas y prepararse incluso para lo inesperable. El futuro de la energía en las sociedades está conectado con las aspiraciones globales de un futuro sostenible y justo.</p