How does the world interest rate affect the real exchange rate?

This paper develops a two goods overlapping generations model (OLG) of a semi-small open economy. Due to the OLG structure, the world interest rate and the domestic rate of time preference need not to be equal. Consequently, this setting represents the minimal real framework to study the effects of a world interest rate shock on the real exchange rate (RER).We show that both medium and long-run effects of a positive interest rate shock depend on the net financial position of the domestic country vis-ý-vis the rest of the world. The path of the RER is non monotonic (undershooting) in the case of a creditor country, while the RER simply appreciates in a debtor country.

Integration, real exchange rate and growth

This paper deals with the relationship between real exchange rate and growth in the process of economic integration. Using a 2x2x2 model of overlapping generations, we show that growth depends on the real exchange rate (RER) through human capital accu- mulation. Integration leads to convergence in growth rates only in presence of cross-border externalities in human capital. Otherwise, divergence is likely to occur and integration may be good (bad) for growth if the integrated RER is higher (lower) than the autarky's RER. In reality, since capital mobility prevents the real exchange rate from adjusting, economic inte- gration may lead to income divergence if countries are too different in terms of preference, altruism or productivity

Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?

This paper examines the time series behavior of monthly bilateral real exchange rates (RER) on a comprehensive sample of 78 industrialized and developing countries, using the U.S. Dollar, the UK Pound and the German Deutsche Mark as numeraires. We suggest a three-step testing procedure based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the mean-reverting properties of the RER and to address the question of whether real exchange rates follow a non linear process or a long memory process. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most of the bilateral real exchange rates under study are not mean-reverting. Secondly, the nonlinear ESTAR type adjustment is far from being prominent. Finally, only few bilateral RER exhibit true long memory mean-reverting properties.Fractional Integration; Nonlinear modelling; Mean reverting process; Long-memory process

Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates

This paper examines the relationships between the CAC40 index, the Dow Jones index and the Euro/USD exchange rate using daily data over the period 1999-2008. We find that these variables are I(1) nonstationary series, but they are fractionally cointegrated: equilibrium errors exhibit slow mean reversion, responding slowly to shocks. Therefore, with regard to the recent empirical cointegration literature, taking into account fractional cointegration techniques appears as a promising way to study the long-run relationships between stock prices and exchange rates.fractional cointegration; long memory; stock prices; exchange rates

Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an exogenous 2-sector growth model in which RER determination depends on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high domestic savings, the country converges to the world per capita income and RER only depends on productivity spread between sectors (Balassa-Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and exclusively by productivity in unconstrained countries.Real exchange rate; capital inflows constraint; overlapping generations

Should a Country Invest more in Human or Physical Capital? A Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Approach

Should a country invest more in human or physical capital? The present paper addresses this issue, considering the impact of different factor intensities between sectors on both optimal human and physical capital accumulation. Using a two-sector overlapping generations setting with endogenous growth driven by human capital accumulation, we prove that relative factor intensity between sectors drastically shapes the welfare analysis: two laissez-faire economies with the same global capital share may generate physical capital excess or scarcity, with respect to the optimum. The model for the Japanese economy, that experienced a factor intensity reversal after the oil shock, is then calibrated. It is shown that Japan invested relatively too much in human capital before 1975, but has not invested enough since 1990

Social Optimum in an OLG Model with Paternalistic Altruism

There is no consensus yet on the correct way to write the social utility function in presence of paternalistic altruism. This note shows that the speci cation of the central planner objective is crucial for optimal capital intensity and optimal growth in a one and a two-sector models. In a one-sector model, optimal growth depends on preferences when paternalistic altruism enters the social utility function; otherwise it does only depend on the capital share as in the standard golden rule. In a two-sector model, optimal growth depends on preferences and relative capital intensities when paternalistic altruism enters the social utility function; otherwise it does only depend on the capital share of the investment good sector. Moreover, both in a one and a two sector model, the optimal growth rate tends to be higher when warm-glow altruism enters the social utility function

Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates

This paper examines the relationships between the CAC40 index, the Dow Jones index and the Euro/USD exchange rate using daily data over the period 1999-2008. We find that these variables are I(1) nonstationary series, but they are fractionally cointegrated: equilibrium errors exhibit slow mean reversion, responding slowly to shocks. Therefore, with regard to the recent empirical cointegration literature, taking into account fractional cointegration techniques appears as a promising way to study the long-run relationships between stock prices and exchange rates.fractional cointegration, long memory, stock prices, exchange rates

Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests

The recent empirical literature supports the view that most of the international stock prices are not pairwise cointegrated. However, by using fractional cointegration techniques, this paper shows that France, Germany, Hong Kong, and Japan stock prices indices are pairwise fractionally cointegrated with US stock prices. Equilibrium errors are mean reverting with half-life lying between 2 and 12 days. It is worthwhile noting that emerging markets like Brazil and Argentina are not pairwise cointegrated with the US stock market. These new results have important implications for asset pricing and international portfolio strategy.equity markets; fractional cointegration; long memory

Taux d’intérêt et taux de change réel dans un modèle à horizons finis

Dans cette étude, il s'agit de caractériser le taux de change réel d'équilibre de long terme d'une petite économie ouverte à deux secteurs de production, dans laquelle les agents ont une durée de vie finie au sens de Blanchard (1985). Ce cadre théorique permet de relâcher l'hypothèse d'égalité entre le taux de préférence pour le présent et le taux d'intérêt mondial. Par ce biais, l'écart entre le taux d'intérêt et le taux de préférence pour le présent détermine la position financière nette de l'économie domestique vis-à-vis du reste du monde. Celle-ci conditionne en retour la réaction des principales variables économiques à une modification exogène du taux d'intérêt. L'impact d'une hausse du taux d'intérêt sur le taux de change réel d'équilibre dépend de la valeur des élasticités de la production par rapport au capital dans les deux secteurs, tandis que la consommation et le stock de capital se comportent différemment selon la position financière du pays.Taux de change réel d’équilibre, taux d’intérêt mondial, générations imbriquées