The Impact of Bank Consolidation on Commercial Borrower Welfare

We estimate the impact of bank merger announcements on borrowers' stock prices for publicly-traded Norwegian firms.In addition, we analyze how bank mergers influence borrower relationship termination behavior and relate the propensity to terminate to borrower abnormal returns.We obtain four main results.First, on average borrowers lose about one percent in equity value when their bank is announced as a merger target.Small borrowers of target banks are especially hurt in large bank mergers, where they lose an average of about three percent.Second, bank mergers lead to higher relationship exit rates for three years after a bank merger, and small bank mergers lead to larger increases in exit rates than large mergers.Third, target borrower abnormal returns are positively related to pre-merger exit rates, indicating that firms that find it easier to switch banks are less harmed when their bank merges.Fourth, we find weak evidence that target borrowers with large merger-induced increases in exit rates are more negatively affected by bank merger announcements, suggesting that target borrowers are forced out of relationships and suffer welfare losses as a result of bank mergers.banks;mergers;bank lending

Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance

Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics. Prices and beliefs about future prices co-evolve over time with mutual feedback. Strategy choice is driven by evolutionary selection, so that agents tend to adopt strategies that were successful in the past. Calibration of simple complexity models with heterogeneous expectations to real financial market data and laboratory experiments with human subjects are also discussed