Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics : the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa.

Background Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation. Methods Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time. Results Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably. Conclusions VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary

Production and use of estimates for monitoring progress in the health sector: the case of Bangladesh

Background: In order to support the progress towards the post-2015 development agenda for the health sector, the importance of high-quality and timely estimates has become evident both globally and at the country level. Objective and Methods: Based on desk review, key informant interviews and expert panel discussions, the paper critically reviews health estimates from both the local (i.e. nationally generated information by the government and other agencies) and the global sources (which are mostly modeled or interpolated estimates developed by international organizations based on different sources of information), and assesses the country capacity and monitoring strategies to meet the increasing data demand in the coming years. Primarily, this paper provides a situation analysis of Bangladesh in terms of production and use of health estimates for monitoring progress towards the post-2015 development goals for the health sector. Results: The analysis reveals that Bangladesh is data rich, particularly from household surveys and health facility assessments. Practices of data utilization also exist, with wide acceptability of survey results for informing policy, programme review and course corrections. Despite high data availability from multiple sources, the country capacity for providing regular updates of major global health estimates/indicators remains low. Major challenges also include limited human resources, capacity to generate quality data and multiplicity of data sources, where discrepancy and lack of linkages among different data sources (local sources and between local and global estimates) present emerging challenges for interpretation of the resulting estimates. Conclusion: To fulfill the increased data requirement for the post-2015 era, Bangladesh needs to invest more in electronic data capture and routine health information systems. Streamlining of data sources, integration of parallel information systems into a common platform, and capacity building for data generation and analysis are recommended as priority actions for Bangladesh in the coming years. In addition to automation of routine health information systems, establishing an Indicator Reference Group for Bangladesh to analyze data; building country capacity in data quality assessment and triangulation; and feeding into global, inter-agency estimates for better reporting would address a number of mentioned challenges in the short- and long-run

Cardiovascular diseases and Type 2 Diabetes in Bangladesh: A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies between 1995 and 2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Belief is that chronic disease prevalence is rising in Bangladesh since death from them has increased. We reviewed published cardiovascular (CVD) and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) studies between 1995 and 2010 and conducted a meta-analysis of disease prevalence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic search of CVD and T2DM studies yielded 29 eligible studies (outcome: CVD only = 12, T2DM only = 9, both = 8). Hypertension (HTN) was the primary outcome of CVD studies. HTN and T2DM were defined with objective measures and standard cut-off values. We assessed the study quality based on sampling frame, sample size, and disease evaluation. Random effects models calculated pooled disease prevalence (95% confidence interval) in studies with general population samples (n = 22).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The pooled HTN and T2DM prevalence were 13.7% (12.1%–15.3%) and 6.7% (4.9%–8.6%), respectively. Both diseases exhibited a secular trend by 5-year intervals between 1995 and 2010 (HTN = 11.0%, 12.8%, 15.3%, T2DM = 3.8%, 5.3%, 9.0%). HTN was higher in females (M vs. F: 12.8% vs.16.1%) but T2DM was higher in males (M vs. F: 7.0% vs. 6.2%) (non-significant). Both HTN and T2DM were higher in urban areas (urban vs. rural: 22.2% vs. 14.3% and 10.2% vs. 5.1% respectively) (non-significant). HTN was higher among elderly and among working professionals. Both HTN and T2DM were higher in ‘high- quality’ studies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is evidence of a rising secular trend of HTN and T2DM prevalence in Bangladesh. Future research should focus on the evolving root causes, incidence, and prognosis of HTN and T2DM.</p