Harmony in diversity:Can One Belt One Road initiative promote China’s OFDI?

This paper investigates the effect of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using a dataset of all host countries for the period of 2010–2015. The employed econometric technique combines a difference-in-differences estimator with matching techniques. The results show that China’s OFDI in OBOR countries is about 40% higher than in non-OBOR countries. After the initiative, the OFDI from China increases by 46.2% in OBOR countries. However, after controlling for the heterogeneity across OBOR and non-OBOR countries using the matching approach, the significance of the increasing effect caused by the OBOR initiative disappears. We also find the OBOR initiative diminishes the resource-seeking motivation and improves the market-seeking motivation of China’s OFDI. Our results cast doubts on the infrastructure-led and institution-based strategy of the OBOR initiative, but support the boosting effect of the OBOR initiative on institutional cooperation and cultural convergence. Thus, the OBOR initiative is a sustainable continuation and development of the long tradition of economic, institutional, and cultural convergence with the OBOR countries, rather than a temporary policy shock

Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China:The role of mixed-frequency factors

In this study, the hybrid of combination-mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network (combination-MIDAS-BP) is proposed to perform real-time forecasting of weekly carbon prices in China's Shenzhen carbon market. In addition to daily energy, economy and weather conditions, environmental factor is introduced into predictive indicators. The empirical results show that the carbon price is more sensitive to coal, temperature and AQI (air quality index) than to other factors. It is also shown that the forecast accuracy of the proposed model is approximately 30% and 40% higher than that of combination-MIDAS models and benchmark models, respectively. Given these forecast results, China's government and enterprises can effectively manage nonlinear, nonstationary, and irregular carbon prices, providing a better investing and managing tool from behavioural economics. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Selection and Real wage cyclicality: Germany Case

This paper examines the selection biases in the cyclical behaviour of real wages using the German Socio-Economic Panel Data (GSOEP) for the 1984-2009 period. We find rigid wages of job stayers in Germany

Economic Reform and Productivity Convergence in China

This paper examines effects of the formation of physical and human capital on the growth of labour productivity, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and wages in China, incorporating the market reform factors such as ownership shifts, population policy, openness and fiscal expenditures on education. We find that Chinese economic miracle is mainly pushed by the (physical) capital service rather than formation of human capital. The physical capital inputs contribute even more after 1994 as the returns to education decrease with the education expansion and increasing tuition fees. The traditional four economic regions of China show different growth patterns. The capital inputs mostly help the labour productivity growth in the West region and the wages growth in the Interior region, while human capital formation contributes to the TFP in all four regions. Moreover, provinces within each region present strong evidence of convergence of economic growth. The convergence is most prominent in the provinces within the Northeast and Coastal regions for labour productivity and TFP growth, suggesting fast technology spill-over within these regions

Real wage cyclicality in urban China

This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of real wages in urban China using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 1989-2006. Using changes in the unemployment rate as the cyclical measure, we find pro-cyclicality in the public sector and small/medium firms, but not in big firms. We also find real wages of male, high educated or ever married workers are flexible. Including bonuses increases the pro-cyclicality of regular wages

Labour market institutions and skill premiums: an empirical analysis on the UK 1972-2002

This paper analyzes the links between labour market institutions and skill premiums in the UK, controlling for other explanatory variables such as market conditions, international trade and skill-biased technology. We find that the trade union decline in unskilled workers can explain more than half of degree premium’ increase over the period 1979-1998 in the private sector, while the overall effect of trade union on degree premiums is only one third during the same period. Decline of trade union has less significant effect on skill premiums in the public sector

Siblings, public facilities and education returns in China

This paper investigates the intrahousehold resource allocation on children’s education and its earnings consequence in Chinese labour market. In order to overcome the endogeneity problem of schooling, we consider the siblings structure and the available public facilities as instrumental variables. Females’ education is negatively affected by siblings (brothers or sisters) number, while males’ education is also negatively affected by their brothers but much less by their sisters. For the youngest cohort born after 1980, the education of a girl would be heavily impeded by her sisters, reflecting strong distortion of “One-Child Policy” on intrahousehold resource allocation. Comparing the OLS and GIV estimations for returns to schooling, we find that there are downwards biases of OLS estimations for males in all cohorts and in all years. However, for females, downwards biases of OLS estimation are only for data before 2004, as females in the old cohorts actually have upwards biases after 2004. Education returns of the youngest cohort are much higher than old cohorts supporting the argument of heterogeneous human capital accumulation during transition

Market Mechanism and Skill Premiums in the UK 1972-2002

This paper examines the effect of shifts in the relative supply and demand of skills on the skill premiums and wage inequality in the British labour market 1972-2002. We test the Katz and Murphy (1992) hypothesis that the changes of skill premiums can be explained by their relative supply shifts, given stable or steadily growing relative demand. Alternatively, Machin (2001) hypothesis holds if the changes of skill premiums can be explained by relative demand shifts, given stable or steadily growing relative supply. From co-variation of relative skill wages and relative labour supplies of skills, we reject the hypothesis that the relative labour demand for skill is stable over time for either males or females. By using detrended relative skill wages and supplies, we infer that the acceleration of relative demand for skills caused a positive association between relative skill wages and labour supplies for males in the 1980s and the 2000s, and for females after the 1970s. Hence, the steadily growing relative demand in Katz and Murphy (1992) can only broadly fit with the cyclical co-variation of skill premiums and supply for males, but not for the long term increasing trend of skill premiums and supply of females. We find the acceleration of relative demand for skilled workers after the 1970s as suggested in Machin (2001) hypothesis

Growth Accounting Analysis in China 1978-2009

This paper applies the growth accounting model to Chinese economy at region and province levels from 1978 to 2009. We measure the components in the growth accounting model such as capital services, labour inputs and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) using various data sources. The economic growth has been decomposed into the contribution of physical capital, labour inputs, labour composition index (LCI) and TFP. We find that Chinese economic growth was mainly pushed by the growth of physical capital, especially in the fastest growing Coastal region. Labour inputs and TFP growth contribute more in the Interior and West regions. Moreover, the contribution shares of physical capital in labour productivity have been declining for the Coastal region, as the TFP contributions have been increasing over the same period. Our results show that the human capital formation from technological and institutional shifts is becoming more and more important in the Coastal region

Siblings, public facilities and education returns in China

This paper investigates the intrahousehold resource allocation on children’s education and its earnings consequence in Chinese labour market. In order to overcome the endogeneity problem of schooling, we consider the siblings structure and the available public facilities as instrumental variables. Females’ education is negatively affected by siblings (brothers or sisters) number, while males’ education is also negatively affected by their brothers but much less by their sisters. For the youngest cohort born after 1980, the education of a girl would be heavily impeded by her sisters, reflecting strong distortion of “One-Child Policy” on intrahousehold resource allocation. Comparing the OLS and GIV estimations for returns to schooling, we find that there are downwards biases of OLS estimations for males in all cohorts and in all years. However, for females, downwards biases of OLS estimation are only for data before 2004, as females in the old cohorts actually have upwards biases after 2004. Education returns of the youngest cohort are much higher than old cohorts supporting the argument of heterogeneous human capital accumulation during transition