Forecasting Malaria morbidity to 2036 based on geo-climatic factors in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background: Malaria is a global burden in terms of morbidity and mortality. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, malaria prevalence is increasing due to strong climatic variations. Reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality, the fight against climate change, good health and well-being constitute key development aims as set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study aims to predict malaria morbidity to 2036 in relation to climate variations between 2001 and 2019, which may serve as a basis to develop an early warning system that integrates monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and early detection of anomalies in weather patterns. Methods: Meteorological data were collected at the Mettelsat and the database of the Epidemiological Surveillance Directorate including all malaria cases registered in the surveillance system based on positive blood test results, either by microscopy or by a rapid diagnostic test for malaria, was used to estimate malaria morbidity and mortality by province of the DRC from 2001 to 2019. Malaria prevalence and mortality rates by year and province using direct standardization and mean annual percentage change were calculated using DRC mid-year populations. Time series combining several predictive models were used to forecast malaria epidemic episodes to 2036. Finally, the impact of climatic factors on malaria morbidity was modeled using multivariate time series analysis. Results: The geographical distribution of malaria prevalence from 2001 and 2019 shows strong disparities between provinces with the highest of 7700 cases per 100,000 people at risk for South Kivu. In the northwest, malaria prevalence ranges from 4980 to 7700 cases per 100,000 people at risk. Malaria has been most deadly in Sankuru with a case-fatality rate of 0.526%, followed by Kasai (0.430%), Kwango (0.415%), Bas-Uélé, (0.366%) and Kwilu (0.346%), respectively. However, the stochastic trend model predicts an average annual increase of 6024.07 malaria cases per facility with exponential growth in epidemic waves over the next 200 months of the study. This represents an increase of 99.2%. There was overwhelming evidence of associations between geographic location (western, central and northeastern region of the country), total evaporation under shelter, maximum daily temperature at two meters altitude and malaria morbidity (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: The stochastic trends in our time series observed in this study suggest an exponential increase in epidemic waves over the next 200 months of the study. The increase in new malaria cases is statistically related to population density, average number of rainy days, average wind speed, and unstable and intermediate epidemiological facies. Therefore, the results of this research should provide relevant information for the Congolese government to respond to malaria in real time by setting up a warning system integrating the monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and early detection of anomalies in weather patterns

A multilevel approach to correlates of anaemia in women in the Democratic Republic of Congo: findings from a nationally representative survey

Background/Objectives:Anaemia accounts for a significant proportion of pre- and post-partum morbidity and mortality in low-income countries with sequelae, including an increased risk of infection. Factors contributing to anaemia need to be addressed through the introduction of evidence-based measures to control and prevent the disease. We aimed to determine the prevalence of anaemia in women of child-bearing age in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and investigate the associated individual, household and community level factors.Subjects/Methods:Cross sectional representative population data from the 2013–2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) was used. The primary outcome was anaemia in women, stratified according to pregnancy in those of child-bearing age. A haemoglobin level of below 11 g/dl for pregnant women and 12 g/dl for non-pregnant women was used as the indicator of anaemia. Using a three-level random intercept model this study explored risk factors at individual, household and community levels and quantified the observed and unobserved variations between households and communities.Results:Thirty-eight percent of women in the DRC are anaemic. Anaemia is significantly higher in younger, pregnant and underweight women, as well as those with comorbidities, including HIV and malaria who are living in the capital city Kinshasa. Anaemia varies within and between households and communities in the DRC.Conclusions:Integrated approaches to reduce anaemia in settings with high malaria and HIV prevalence such as the DRC should target households

The use of liraglutide 3.0 mg daily in the management of overweight and obesity in people with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and first episode psychosis: results of a pilot randomised double-blind placebo-control trial

AimTo investigate the feasibility and acceptability of using liraglutide 3.0 mg daily in the management of overweight and obesity in people with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and first episode psychosis.Materials and MethodsA double‐blind, randomized, placebo‐controlled pilot trial took place in mental health centres and primary care within Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust. The participants were adults with schizophrenia, schizoaffective or first‐episode psychosis prescribed antipsychotic medication who were overweight or obese. The intervention was once‐daily subcutaneous liraglutide or placebo, titrated to 3.0 mg daily, for 6 months. The primary outcomes were recruitment, consent, retention and adherence. The secondary exploratory outcomes were weight, HbA1c and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale.ResultsSeven hundred and ninety‐nine individuals were screened for eligibility. The most common reasons for exclusion were ineligibility (44%) and inability to make contact (28%). The acceptance rate, as a proportion of all eligible participants, was 12.2%. The most commonly stated reason why eligible candidates declined to participate related to the study‐specific medication and protocol (n = 50). Forty‐seven participants were randomized, with 79% completing the trial. Participants in the liraglutide arm lost a mean 5.7 ± 7.9 kg compared with no significant weight change in the placebo group (treatment difference −6.0 kg, p = .015). Body mass index, waist circumference and HbA1c were reduced in the intervention group.ConclusionsThis study supports the need for a larger randomized controlled trial to evaluate the use of liraglutide (maximum dose 3.0 mg daily) in the management of obesity in people with severe mental illness