Financial Markets in Times of Stress

In this paper, we examine which markets are most synchronized internationally and exhibit the greater extent of comovement. We focus on daily data for four asset markets: bonds, equities, foreign exchange, and domestic money market. Our sample covers thirty-five developed and emerging market countries during 1997-1999. The extent of comovement and responsiveness to external shocks is examined in different ways. To measure the response of these markets to adverse external shocks, we date the peaks in domestic interest rates and bond spreads and the largest daily declines in equity prices and assess the extent of clustering around the same period. We also analyze which markets show evidence of greatest comovement in general, irrespective of whether there are adverse shocks or not.

Leading indicators of currency crises

The authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early-warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. An indicator exceeding a certain threshold value should be interpreted as a warning"signal"that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The threshold values are calculated to strike a balance between the risk of having many false signals and the risk of missing many crises. Within this approach, the variables with the best track record include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices. The evidence does not support some of the other indicators that were considered, including imports, bank deposits,the difference between foreign and domestic real deposit interest rates, and the ratio of lending to deposit interest rates.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Economics

Shoreface behaviour and equilibrium

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Arquitectura, apresentada ao Departamento de Arquitectura da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de CoimbraMuitas vezes, as periferias das cidades são áreas sem estrutura1 do ponto de vista arquitectónico e urbano. A formação / génese de tais periferias relaciona-se com a grande especulação na densificação de novos territórios, ou, noutros casos, da sua informal ocupação, causando a fragmentação dos tecidos urbanos. No caso de Coimbra, muitos dos planos que foram propostos para a cidade, no século XX, resultaram numa ocupação, densificação do território e realojamento, baseada na formação de bairros periféricos, inicialmente precários. Os realojamentos deram-se em massa, num curto espaço de tempo, adensando as condições para a fragmentação territorial. Inserido no quadro suburbano estão os bairros da Conchada e do Ingote, que, actualmente, sofrem do estigma associado à sua marginalização. Pretende-se, assim, emendar esta realidade, propondo uma estratégia de articulação urbana entre o centro da cidade de Coimbra e os bairros da Conchada e do Ingote, a partir do espaço público. Por um lado, partiu-se de um processo de análise crítico, cuja concretização apoia-se em mapas de análise, para cada um dos bairros, evidenciando a sua inserção urbana, os seus aspectos morfológicos e formais, bem como as suas fragilidades, dando origem a temas / propostas de projecto. Por outro lado e, resultante deste método de análise, surgiu o projecto estratégico. O projecto é pontuado pela conformação de uma nova centralidade nos dois bairros, estimulando a periferia e reforçando o tecido urbano, a partir de uma nova costura urbana.Frequently, the outskirts of cities are unstructured areas2 from the architectural and urban point of view. The creation / genesis of those outskirts relates to the major speculation in the densification of new territories or in other cases from its informal occupation, causing the fragmentation of the urban fabric. In the case of Coimbra, most of the plans which were proposed for the city, in the 20th century resulted in an occupation, densification of the territory and relocation based on creation of outlying neighborhoods initially precarious. The relocations were in mass in a short period of time, densifying the deepening the conditions for the territorial defragmentation. Conchada and Ingote neighborhoods are set in a suburban frame which, currently, suffer from the stigma attached to their marginalization. The objective is to amend this reality, proposing an urban articulation strategy among the center of Coimbra and Conchada e Ingote neighborhoods, from the public space. On the one hand, it was started up a process of critical analysis, whose implementation leans on analysis maps for each of the neighborhoods highlighting its urban integration, its morphological and formal aspects, as well its weaknesses, giving rise to issues / project proposals. On the other hand, and a result from this analysis method, arose the strategic project. The project is punctuated by the formation of a new centrality in two neighborhoods, stimulating the outskirts and reinforcing the urban fabric, through a new urban seam