AFLA-pistachio: development of a mechanistic model to predict aflatoxin contamination of greek pistachio nuts

Pistachios are cultivated worldwide for their high nutritional value and their good flavour. In Greece, the main pistachio variety is Pistachia vera cv Aegina. One of the main regions of pistachio cultivation in Greece is Aegina Island, located close to Athens and the pistachio nuts cultivated there are registered as P.D.O. (Product of Designation of Origin). During the last decades, several surveys on Greek pistachio nuts indicated high contamination with aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), therefore, aflatoxins are considered a major problem for the crop. In Europe, a legislation is in force and 12 \u3bcg/kg of AFB1 is the fixed limit. The ultimate goal of the current study was to develop a mechanistic, weather-driven model, to predict Aspergillus flavus growth and AFB1 contamination in pistachios on a daily base from nut setting until harvest. The planned steps were: i) to develop a prototype model based on AFLA-maize (Battilani et al., 2013), ii) to collect meteorological and AF contamination data in Aegina, iii) to run the model and elaborate a probability function to estimate the likelihood to overcome the legal limit and iv) to manage a preliminary validation. AFLA-pistachio model was developed; the validation was carried out using data collected in 2014 and 2015 as model input and around 70% of pistachio orchards were correctly classified by the model in respect to the legal limit. Results were very promising and AFLA-pistachio model seems to be a useful tool for stakeholders to follow the dynamic of AFB1 contamination risk throughout the pistachio growing season

AFLA-PISTACHIO: Development of a Mechanistic Model to Predict the Aflatoxin Contamination of Pistachio Nuts

In recent years, very many incidences of contamination with aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in pistachio nuts have been reported as a major global problem for the crop. In Europe, legislation is in force and 12 \u3bcg/kg of AFB1 is the maximum limit set for pistachios to be subjected to physical treatment before human consumption. The goal of the current study was to develop a mechanistic, weather-driven model to predict Aspergillus flavus growth and the AFB1 contamination of pistachios on a daily basis from nut setting until harvest. The planned steps were to: (i) build a phenology model to predict the pistachio growth stages, (ii) develop a prototype model named AFLA-pistachio (model transfer from AFLA-maize), (iii) collect the meteorological and AFB1 contamination data from pistachio orchards, (iv) run the model and elaborate a probability function to estimate the likelihood of overcoming the legal limit, and (v) manage a preliminary validation. The internal validation of AFLA-pistachio indicated that 75% of the predictions were correct. In the external validation with an independent three-year dataset, 95.6% of the samples were correctly predicted. According to the results, AFLA-pistachio seems to be a reliable tool to follow the dynamic of AFB1 contamination risk throughout the pistachio growing season

Decision support tools for crop protection – current options and future prospects for growers of carrot and other apiaceous crops

Apiaceous crops are challenged by a range of pests, pathogens and weeds. It is possible to plan in advance to avoid some of these, whilst others may require rapid responses during the growing season. This paper reviews the decision support tools available to growers of apiaceous crops, with a focus on Europe, and considers future opportunities that improvements in technology will allow. There are a good number of tools available to monitor and forecast the most significant pest insects infesting apiaceous crops, but fewer tools to assist with the management of pathogens