Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use

Dynamic discrete choice models are non-parametrically not identified without restrictions on payoff functions, yet counterfactuals may be identified even when payoffs are not. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of a wide range of counterfactuals for models with nonparametric payoffs, as well as for commonly used parametric functions, and we obtain both positive and negative results. We show that access to extra data of asset resale prices (when applicable) can solve non-identifiability of both payoffs and counterfactuals. The theoretical findings are illustrated empirically in the context of agricultural land use. First, we provide identification results for models with unobserved market-level state variables. Then, using a unique spatial dataset of land use choices and land resale prices, we estimate the model and investigate two policy counterfactuals: long run land use elasticity (identified) and a fertilizer tax (not identified, affected dramatically by restrictions)

Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals

We provide a general framework for investigating partial identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models and their counterfactuals, along with uniformly valid inference procedures. In doing so, we derive sharp bounds for the model parameters, counterfactual behavior, and low-dimensional outcomes of interest, such as the average welfare effects of hypothetical policy interventions. We characterize the properties of the sets analytically and show that when the target outcome of interest is a scalar, its identified set is an interval whose endpoints can be calculated by solving well-behaved constrained optimization problems via standard algorithms. We obtain a uniformly valid inference procedure by an appropriate application of subsampling. To illustrate the performance and computational feasibility of the method, we consider both a Monte Carlo study of firm entry/exit, and an empirical model of export decisions applied to plant-level data from Colombian manufacturing industries. In these applications, we demonstrate how the identified sets shrink as we incorporate alternative model restrictions, providing intuition regarding the source and strength of identification

Time to build and fluctuations in bulk shipping

This paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices. We examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity, by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit. A rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy: resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation. We find that moving from time-varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices, while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment. Copyright © 2014 by the American Economic Association

Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of World Shipbuilding

This paper provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (i) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (ii) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 13-20%, corresponding to 1:5 to 4:5 billion US dollars, between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to minor surplus gains for shippers.Economic