660 research outputs found
Delayed information flow effect in economy systems. An ACP model study
Applying any strategy requires some knowledge about the past state of the
system. Unfortunately in the case of economy collecting information is a
difficult, expensive and time consuming process. Therefore the information
about the system is known at the end of some well defined intervals, e. g.
company reports, inflation data, GDP etc. They describe a (market) situation in
the past. The time delay is specific to the market branch. It can be very short
(e.g. stock market offer is updated every minute or so and this information is
immediately available) or long, like months in the case of agricultural market,
when the decisions are taken based on the results from the previous harvest.
The analysis of the information flow delay can be based on the ACP model of
spatial evolution of economic systems. The entities can move on a square
lattice and when meeting take one of the two following decisions: merge or
create a new entity. The decision is based on the system state, which is known
with some time delay. The effect of system's feedback is investigated. We
consider the case of company distribution evolution in a heterogenous field.
The information flow time delay implies different final states, including
cycles.Comment: Presented at APFA
Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States
We present the data on wealth and income distributions in the United Kingdom,
as well as on the income distributions in the individual states of the USA. In
all of these data, we find that the great majority of population is described
by an exponential distribution, whereas the high-end tail follows a power law.
The distributions are characterized by a dimensional scale analogous to
temperature. The values of temperature are determined for the UK and the USA,
as well as for the individual states of the USA.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, elsart.cls. Submitted to Physica A, proceedings
of NATO workshop Applications of Physics in Economic Modeling, Prague,
February 2001. V.2: minor stylistic expansio
Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields
We develop a model for the evolution of economic entities within a
geographical type of framework. On a square symmetry lattice made of three
(economic) regions, firms, described by a scalar fitness, are allowed to move,
adapt, merge or create spin-offs under predetermined rules, in a space and time
dependent economic environment. We only consider here one timely variation of
the ''external economic field condition''. For the firm fitness evolution we
take into account a constraint such that the disappearance of a firm modifies
the fitness of nearest neighboring ones, as in Bak-Sneppen population fitness
evolution model. The concentration of firms, the averaged fitness, the regional
distribution of firms, and fitness for different time moments, the number of
collapsed, merged and new firms as a function of time have been recorded and
are discussed. Also the asymptotic values of the number of firms present in the
three regions together with their average fitness, as well as the number of
respective births and collapses in the three regions are examined. It appears
that a sort of selection pressure exists. A power law dependence,
signature of self-critical organization is seen in the birth and collapse
asymptotic values for a high selection pressure only. A lack of
self-organization is also seen at region borders.Comment: 11 figures double columns on 7 page
A logistic map approach to economic cycles I. The best adapted companies
A birth-death lattice gas model about the influence of an environment on the
fitness and concentration evolution of economic entities is analytically
examined. The model can be mapped onto a high order logistic map. The control
parameter is a (scalar) "business plan". Conditions are searched for growth and
decay processes, stable states, upper and lower bounds, bifurcations, periodic
and chaotic solutions. The evolution equation of the economic population for
the best fitted companies indicates "microscopic conditions" for cycling. The
evolution of a dynamic exponent is shown as a function of the business plan
parameters.Comment: 10 pages, 5 postscript figure
Influence of information flow in the formation of economic cycles
A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for
macroeconomic behavior based on the Ausloos-Clippe-Pekalski model is built and
investigated. The influence of a discrete time information transfer is
investigated. The formation of economic cycles is observed as a function of the
time of information delay. Three regions of delay time are recognized: short
(IS - iteration steps) - the system evolves toward a
unique stable equilibrium state, medium or , the
system undergoes oscillations: stable concentration cycles appear in the
system. For long information flow delay times, , the systems may
crash for most initial concentrations. However, even in the case of long delay
time the crash time may be long enough to allow observation of the system
evolution and to introduce an appropriate strategy in order to avoid the
collapse of the e.g. company concentration. In the long time delay it is also
possible to observe an "economy resonance" where despite a long delay time the
system evolves for a long time or can even reach a stable state, which insures
its existence.Comment: 18 pages,16 figures, to be published in Verhulst 200 Proceedings, M.
Ausloos and M. Dirickx, Eds. (in press
Sources of Financial Fragility: Financial Factors in the Economics of Capitalism
Originally, paper prepared for the conference, Coping with Financial Fragility: A Global Perspective, 7-9 September 1994, Maasdricht. (sic)
Also included are handwritten and word processed pages showing original drafts of the paper
Financial Factors in the Economics of Capitalism
Journal of Financial Services Research, Vol 9, No. 3-4, 197-208
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