FOOD SAFETY RISK PERCEPTION AND CONSUMER CHOICE OF SPECIALTY MEATS

Consumer perception issues and recent microbial outbreaks in the livestock industry continue to stifle demand for specialty meats in the United States. This study was designed to explore impacts of risk perception issues on consumer choice of bison meat. A stated preference discrete choice random utility model, a joint risk perception/product choice model, and a probability of frequency method to aggregating risk scenarios, were used for a range of food safety/certification regimes. Perceived risk reduces bison consumption, but its effect declines with shifts to more regulatory control inherent in the different certification regimes.food safety, bison, specialty meat, nested logit model, risk perception, product choice, discrete choice experiment, probability of frequency method, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries,

VALUE-AT-RISK AND FOOD SAFETY LOSSES IN TURKEY PROCESSING

Food safety risks and microbial outbreaks have significant health impacts on society as a whole, as well as economic loss to food processing firms. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), an estimated 76 million foodborne illnesses occur each year in the United States. Of these cases, 325,000 hospitalizations and 5,000 deaths occur each year (Mead et al., 1999). The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Services (USDA-FSIS) (1996) estimated that approximately 4,000 deaths each year are attributed to contamination in meat and poultry products. For food processing firms, microbial outbreaks often result in significant economic losses: food recalls, lost market share, and decreased consumer confidence. The intangible nature of aggregate economic losses makes it difficult for firm managers to predict firm-level economic impacts of food safety losses and adopt effective risk mitigation strategies. Developments in Value-at-Risk (VaR) methods provide an analytical framework to resolve this problem. This report develops VaR models to predict food safety risks in turkey processing, under alternative risk mitigation strategies. The FSIS records of food recalls from 1994 to 2003 indicated that as much as $1.35 billion in losses were realized in the turkey industry. The objective of this report is to determine the firm-level risk reduction capabilities and performances of Pathogen Reduction/Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (PR/HACCP) systems using VaR and out-of-sample testing for robustness of findings. The VaR results suggest that characteristic turkey processing plants, on average, were losing$0.06905 per lb not more than 5% of the time in any given month in the period prior to PR/HACCP implementation. However, after PR/HACCP implementation, turkey processing plants were losing $0.04936 per lb. In the period after PR/HACCP implementation, losses incurred under generic and augmented PR/HACCP for the small turkey processing plant were not significantly different. The out-of-sample tests indicated that VaR was adequate in predicting firm-level food safety economic losses. The results of this report provide private and public policymakers with alternatives to improve PR/HACCP implementation.PR/HACCP, Value-at-Risk, Salmonella, Turkey Processing, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Commodity-based Trade and Market Access for Developing Country Livestock Products: The Case of Beef Exports from Ethiopia

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.SPS, livestock, market access, system dynamics, Ethiopia, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q10, Q13,

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Breads Marketed as "Low-Carbohydrate"

Bread producers are taking advantage of healthy feeding habits by developing new "low carbohydrate" products to entice customers. These low carbohydrate breads are generally more expensive than conventional types. This study tests the hypothesis that consumers are willing to pay higher premium for "low carbohydrate" breads at various locations and markets. We use retail data in a hedonic pricing framework to estimate the premium paid for the "low carbohydrate" attribute of bread. Results show that the implicit price of the "low carbohydrate" attribute of bread ranges from about 0.06¢ to 1.1¢ per gram, reflecting the amount consumers are willing to pay above the price of conventional bread.low carbohydrate bread, hedonic price, willingness to pay, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D12,

OPTIMAL GRAZING PRESSURE UNDER OUTPUT PRICE AND PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY WITH ALTERNATIVE FUNCTIONAL FORMS

This study uses a Cox parametric bootstrap test to select between two specifications of the von Liebig hypothesis, a switching regression model and a non-linear mixed stochastic plateau function. The selected production function was used to determine optimal stocking density for dual-purpose winter wheat, under production and output price uncertainty. The switching regression approach was rejected in favor of the non-linear mixed stochastic plateau function. The relatively small difference in optimal stocking density between risk aversion and risk neutrality suggests that risk-aversion is much less important in explaining producer response to uncertainty than is nonlinearity in the production function.Agribusiness,

Qatar Siege : Impact On Consumer Behaviour

This poster analyses the effect of the siege placed on Qatar by Saudi Arabic, Bahrain, Egypt, and UAE, on consumer behaviour. This is done by focusing on the food industry, which was majorly impacted. Other sectors that effected consumer behaviour are also explored to understand the overall outcome

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT IN WHEAT AND BARLEY: 1993-2001

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), commonly known as scab, has been a severe problem for wheat and barley producers since 1993. This study provides an update of economic losses suffered by wheat and barley producers in scab-affected regions in the United States. Emphasis is placed on estimating direct and secondary economic impacts of yield and price losses suffered by wheat and barley producers from 1993 to 2001. Nine states are included in the analysis for three wheat classes. Three of the nine states were also used for the analysis of malting and feed barley. The cumulative direct economic losses from FHB in hard red spring (HRS) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, durum wheat, and barley are estimated at $2.492 billion from 1993 through 2001. The combined direct and secondary economic losses for all the crops were estimated at$7.7 billion. Two states, North Dakota and Minnesota, account for about 68 percent of the total dollar losses.Fusarium Head Blight, scab, vomitoxin, crop losses, wheat, barley, Crop Production/Industries,

Support for smallholder farmers through Islamic instruments: The case of Bangladesh and lessons for Nigeria

Purpose: In societies with strong presence of Islam, Islamic instruments with more scope for fairness and equity can be innovatively harnessed to play an increasing role in the development process and poverty alleviation schemes. Poor smallholder farmers dominate agricultural production in many developing countries and contribute a significant portion of global food production. This paper aims to develop a scheme to improve poor smallholder farmers vulnerable financial situation through the application of Zakah and Salam contract, using Bangladesh as a case study. Secondary goals are to show the effect of the scheme on food security and relevance to Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach: The authors explore the existing traditional modes of financing available to poor smallholders, identify their challenges and propose an appropriate Islamic financing scheme. Findings: With the Zakah-based Salam forward contract, the proposed scheme would procure food through Institutional Demand to offer interest free financing, fair price and access to new marketing channels and reduce income uncertainty for the rural smallholders. The discussions indicate that the local food security will be enhanced through incentivized farming activities and disbursement of food from the food bank to the Zakah-eligible food insecure local people. Research limitations/implications: This proposal brings forth a potentially powerful idea that needs further empirical validation. Originality/value: The religion-based Institutional Demand initiative to promote smallholder agricultural development and social protection is a novel one. The attempt to apply the framework to Nigeria context shows the potential of the framework to generalize for other Muslim developing countries with similar characteristics, especially the poorer agriculture-based countries.Scopu