Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

An Observational Overview of Solar Flares

We present an overview of solar flares and associated phenomena, drawing upon a wide range of observational data primarily from the RHESSI era. Following an introductory discussion and overview of the status of observational capabilities, the article is split into topical sections which deal with different areas of flare phenomena (footpoints and ribbons, coronal sources, relationship to coronal mass ejections) and their interconnections. We also discuss flare soft X-ray spectroscopy and the energetics of the process. The emphasis is to describe the observations from multiple points of view, while bearing in mind the models that link them to each other and to theory. The present theoretical and observational understanding of solar flares is far from complete, so we conclude with a brief discussion of models, and a list of missing but important observations.Comment: This is an article for a monograph on the physics of solar flares, inspired by RHESSI observations. The individual articles are to appear in Space Science Reviews (2011

The CIELO collaboration: Progress in international evaluations of neutron reactions on Oxygen, Iron, Uranium and Plutonium

The CIELO collaboration has studied neutron cross sections on nuclides that significantly impact criticality in nuclear technologies – 16O, 56Fe, 235,8U and 239Pu – with the aim of improving the accuracy of the data and resolving previous discrepancies in our understanding. This multi-laboratory pilot project, coordinated via the OECD/NEA Working Party on Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC) Subgroup 40 with support also from the IAEA, has motivated experimental and theoretical work and led to suites of new evaluated libraries that accurately reflect measured data and also perform well in integral simulations of criticality

ENDF/B-VII data testing with ICSBEP benchmarks

Continuous energy Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations have been performed for several hundred critical benchmarks described in the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. These calculations were performed with MCNP5 using either ENDF/B-VI.8 or ENDF/B-VII.0 cross sections. ENDF/B-VII cross section data files yield significantly more accurate calculated eigenvalues than those obtained with ENDF/B-VI.8 cross sections for moderated, low-enriched uranium fuel rod lattice configurations and for unmoderated, bare or reflected, critical benchmark assemblies. Accurate calculated eigenvalues were previously obtained with ENDF/B-VI.8 cross sections for both highly-enriched and low-enriched uranium solution assemblies. These accurate eigenvalues are retained with ENDF/B-VII.0 cross sections

A Re-Analysis of Historical Los Alamos Critical Assembly Reaction Rate Measurements

Starting in the 1950s and continuing into the early 1970s, a number of foil irradiations and fission chamber measurements were made in a variety of Fast critical assemblies at Los Alamos National Laboratory. These include (i) Godiva, a bare HEU spherical assembly; (ii) Flattop-25, a spherical assembly consisting of an HEU core and a natural uranium reflector; (iii) Jezebel, a bare 239Pu assembly; and (iv) Flattop-Pu, a spherical assembly consisting of a 239Pu core and a natural uranium reflector. In most instances the irradiations occur at or near the center of the assembly, but in selected instances data were obtained for a radial traverse extending into the Flattop reflector region. Measurements were made for a number of threshold reactions, including 45Sc(n,2n)44mSc, 51V(n,α)48Sc, 75As(n,2n)74As, 89Y(n,2n)88Y, 90Zr(n,2n)89Zr, 103Rh(n,2n)102gRh, 107Ag(n,2n)106mAg, 169Tm(n,2n)168Tm, 175Lu(n,2n)174Lu, 191Ir(n,2n)190Ir, 197Au(n,2n)196Au, 203Tl(n,2n)202Tl, 204Pb(n,2n)203Pb and 238U(n,2n)237U. Fission ratio data for 238U(n,f)/235U(n,f) and 239Pu(n,f)/235U(n,f) were also obtained. We report C/E values from MCNP6 calculations using ENDF/B-VII.1 and IRDFF-v1.03 cross section data