A mixed-method approach to determining contact matrices in the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between subgroups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements—locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper, we present a novel, mixed-method approach for deriving contact matrices in populations, which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. To validate our approach, we apply it to the UK population and compare our derived matrices with well-known contact matrices collected using traditional methods. Our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach successfully addresses some of the challenges faced by traditional and agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices. It also shows potential for implementation in resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities

Managing hypertension in a Rohingya refugee camp: a brief report

Non-communicable diseases have overtaken communicable diseases as the most common cause of death worldwide, with the majority of these deaths in low-income and middle-income countries. Hypertension alone causes over nine million deaths per year.Since 2017, around 750 000 Rohingya refugees have fled violence in Myanmar into Cox’s Bazar District in Bangladesh. We describe a quality improvement project focused on the management of hypertension in Rohingya refugees in three primary health facilities within the Rohingya refugee camps. The aim of the project was to create a sustainable hypertension service within existing primary care services.A number of plan–do–study–act cycles were performed to improve care, with methods including: creating a specialised clinic, writing a treatment algorithm, training of pharmacists, engaging community health workers and educational programmes for staff and patients.In 2020, 554 patients were engaged in the new hypertension service. Of these, 358 (64.6%) returned for follow-up at least once. Mean systolic blood pressure (BP) was 141.7 (SD 60.0) mm Hg and mean diastolic BP was 88.1 (SD 11.1) mm Hg. Patients engaged in treatment had a significant reduction of BP of 8.2 (95% CI 5.4 to 11.0)/6.0 (95% CI 4.1 to 7.9) mm Hg (p<0.0001).Our project shows that it is possible to create a hypertension service in a challenging humanitarian crisis, which can successfully improve the control of hypertension, although retention in care can be difficult

Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox’s Bazar settlement

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable

Infection prevention and control for COVID-19 response in the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh: an intra-action review

Abstract Background Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) is critical in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and is one of the pillars of the WHO COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan 2020. We conducted an Intra-Action Review (IAR) of IPC response efforts to the COVID-19 pandemic in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, to identify best practices, challenges, and recommendations for improvement of the current and future responses. Methods We conducted two meetings with 54 participants purposively selected from different organizations and agencies involved in the frontline implementation of IPC in Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. We used the IPC trigger questions from the WHO country COVID-19 IAR: trigger question database to guide the discussions. Meeting notes and transcripts were then analyzed manually using content analysis, and results were presented in text and quotes. Results Best practices included: assessments, a response plan, a working group, trainings, early case identification and isolation, hand hygiene in Health Facilities (HFs), monitoring and feedback, general masking in HFs, supportive supervision, design, infrastructure and environmental controls in Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Isolation and Treatment Centers (SARI ITCs) and HFs and waste management. Challenges included: frequent breakdown of incinerators, limited PPE supply, inconsistent adherence to IPC, lack of availability of uniforms for health workers, in particular cultural and gender appropriate uniforms and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). Recommendations from the IAR were: (1) to promote the institutionalization of IPC, programs in HFs (2) establishment of IPC monitoring mechanisms in all HCFs, (3) strengthening IPC education and training in health care facilities, and (4) strengthen public health and social measures in communities. Conclusion Establishing IPC programmes that include monitoring and continuous training are critical in promoting consistent and adaptive IPC practices. Response to a pandemic crisis combined with concurrent emergencies, such as protracted displacement of populations with many diverse actors, can only be successful with highly coordinated planning, leadership, resource mobilization, and close supervision

Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the likelihood of disease outbreaks expected to increase in the future as more people are displaced due to conflict and climate change, we call for the development of more approaches and models specifically designed to include the unique features and populations of refugee and IDP settlements. To strengthen collaboration between the modelling and the humanitarian public health communities, we propose a roadmap to encourage the development of systems and frameworks to share needs, build tools and coordinate responses in an efficient and scalable manner, both for this pandemic and for future outbreaks