Training on understanding, communicating, and using the downscaled seasonal forecast

This report describes a one-day workshop that presented new downscaled seasonal climate forecasts and a brief training program on how to understand, communicate and use new format with farmer groups. It builds on and extends the previous PICSA training workshops by (a) shifting from the use of station rainfall data to merged gridded data, and (b) introducing experimental seasonal forecasts presented as shifted probability distributions. The workshop began with an introduction to downscaled forecasts in probability-of-exceedance format, and discussion of plans to make these forecasts available through the Meteo-Rwanda maprooms. Key concepts were explained, and their equivalent terms in Kinyarwanda were discussed. Participants were led through an interactive process of eliciting collective memory of rainfall in recent years, developing a time-series graph based on the past 5 years of rainfall data, and then sorting the time series into a probability-of-exceedance graph. Instruction and a breakout group exercise taught participants to interpret probability-of-exceedance graphs. A discussion about El Niño was used to introduce the concept of a seasonal forecast, build confidence that there is a physical basis for seasonal forecasting, reinforce the probabilistic nature of seasonal forecast, and prepare participants to accept the new seasonal forecast format. Showing a probability-of-exceedance graph for El Niño against the probability-of-exceedance for all years is the final step to preparing intermediaries, or the farmers they serve, to understand the new seasonal forecast format. Downscaled forecasts of September-December 2016 total rainfall showed a weak to moderate probability shift towards dryer conditions. The presentation of the current forecast was followed by a discussion of the approach that was presented in the workshop, how the forecast system performs, and how to present the historical and forecast information to farmers. The workshop ended with discussion of action plans for using the new forecasts for project communication and planning activities in the four target districts

Training on seasonal forecasting using the IRI Climate Predictability Tool and Data Library

This report summarizes the interactions, discussions, and analyses of Asher Siebert, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), during his three-week visit to Rwanda in late August to mid- September 2017 as part of the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project. The project aims to provide climate services widely throughout Rwanda and help farmers better adapt to climate variability and climate change impacts. In doing so, the project seeks to help improve agriculture outcomes and ensure food security. During the visit, trainings were held to discuss seasonal climate forecasting and downscaling methods. A particular national forecast for Rwanda along with downscaled results in probability of exceedance format for ten Rwandan districts (those in the first two phases of the project) was developed using the IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT). A critical component of the project’s mission is capacity building and to that end, a number of staff from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Météo Rwanda) were trained in CPT, the IRI Data Library, and the Météo Rwanda maprooms. Further discussions addressed longer-term collaborative work on both climatology and further seasonal prediction work, particularly with regard to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Discussions with experts at International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) also focused on the newly developed water balance maprooms and the possibilities of updating these maprooms in the future

Workshop report: Training and Development of Downscaled Seasonal Forecasts for Pilot Districts, Kigali, Rwanda

This report summarizes the discussions, analysis and interactions during IRI postdoctoral research scientist Asher Siebert’s one-week stay in Rwanda in late August 2016 as part of the CCAFS-Rwanda project. The overall aim of this project is help farmers in Rwanda to be better adapted to climate variability and any climate change they may face, and, in doing so, to help improve food security and agricultural outcomes. Seasonal forecasting and downscaling methods were discussed, and a particular national forecast made with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and was shared, along with downscaled results in probability of exceedance format. In country meteorology participants were trained in CPT. Further discussions addressed longer-term collaborative work on both climatology and further seasonal prediction work, particularly with regard to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Discussions with experts at CIAT and the Rwanda Agriculture Board also addressed the prospect of using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) as a monitoring and climate/agriculture risk management tool in the future

Workshop Report: Launch of Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) and Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project

This report presents the outputs of the joint launch of the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) program of Meteo Rwanda and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture (RCSA) project. This launch brought together key government agencies in Rwanda, research organizations, farmers’ representatives, development partners, non-governmental organizations and media. The aim of the one day workshop was to launch the ENACTS products provided by Meteo Rwanda and to introduce the RCSA project to the government and public. This was a transition from the design phase of the project to the implementation phase. The report includes the process of the launch event, presentations made and the main comments by participants

Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) Intermediary Training in Muhanga, Rwanda

The Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project is a four-year initiative (2016-2019) that seeks to transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and national economy through improved climate risk management. This report presents the outputs of a five-day training workshop in Muhanga, Rwanda on the use of the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach to help farmers make climate informed decisions. This training brought together farmer promoters, Social Economic Development Officers (SEDOs), as well as Sector Agronomists from the four pilot districts in Rwanda. The training workshop aimed to initiate the process of PICSA implementation starting by training lead farmers who will train farmers in the use of the PICSA approach. The report includes the process of the training workshop, presentations, and the evaluation by participants

Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) Specialist Intermediary Training in Nyamata, Rwanda

The Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project is a four-year initiative (2016-2019) that seeks to transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and national economy through improved climate risk management. This report presents the outputs of a five-day training on the use of a Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach to help farmers make climate informed decisions. This training brought together key government agencies in Rwanda, research organizations, farmers’ representatives, development partners, non-governmental organizations, and media. The one week training workshop aimed to initiate the process to develop skills of staff to become a group of expert trainers in the PICSA approach. The report includes the proceeding of the training workshop as well as reflections on workshop outcomes and feedback by participants

Planning workshop for Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project

This report presents the outputs of the planning workshop for the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project. The main objective of this planning workshop was to engage key partners in project planning, revise the project’s specific activities, revise the timeline and work-plan for all implementation and monitoring and evaluation activities for the first year of the project. This workshop brought together all project implementation team members, and key partners such as Twigire muhinzi through which the services will be disseminated to farmers as the biggest stakeholders of the project. The implementing team was drawn from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the University of Reading (UR), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) and Rwanda Meteorological Agency (Meteo-Rwanda). The two days planning meeting came up with an activity plan for all the four outcomes of the project, with responsible institutions and key partners for implementation. The report includes the process of the workshop, brief summary on presentations made, and the key summary and action points from the meeting

Scaling and sustaining CIS and CSA through Bundled Business Models

Bundling agricultural innovations associated with CSA with other services such as climate information and financial services (e.g., combining crop varieties that resist drought or heavy rains with recommendations regarding best practices with access to insurance) is a key means to improve our ability to face these compound challenges. The synergistic nature between CIS and CSA - and the potential complementarity of each to support the scaling of the other – raises an important question. How can CIS and CSA be bundled together with other agriculture products and services to support sustainable scaling in the delivery of the same? In other words, what are the business models that can support the implementation of CIS and CSA in a manner that maximally benefits farmers and does so in a way that is profitable for private sector implementing partners? This policy brief unpacks this question by examining a few exemplary cases and characterizing each in relation to seven different assessment categories. These categories spanning core technologies to available evidence provide perspective on each case and the components that may contribute to potentially scalable business models

Climate services for agriculture in Rwanda: What farmers know about climate information services in Rwanda

We evaluated 3,046 farmers spread across the country’s districts to establish baseline about climate information and climate change, in September 2016. This Info Note shares insights into the status and needs for climate services in Rwanda at the time of this survey

Climate Services for Agriculture in Rwanda Baseline Survey Report

This report presents analysis of a baseline household survey for the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project – a four-year, USAID-funded initiative that seeks to benefit Rwanda’s farming communities and national economy through climate services and improved climate risk management. The survey intends to provide a baseline assessment of the state of climate services among agricultural households in Rwanda. A random sample of 3,046 respondents was nationally surveyed in the all four provinces of the country and in the city of Kigali. A total of 52% of the sample were female respondents, while two-thirds of the households interviewed were male-headed households. The baseline includes outcome indicators related to access, use of climate information, channels of communication, behavioral change and perceived livelihood benefit/impact. The project evaluation will involve assessing changes over time in these benchmark indicators and eventually comparing the changes across beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. A qualitative component of the evaluation will provide deeper insights into users’ decision making, behavioral change and any socially differentiated effect