275 research outputs found
Bayesian Thought in Early Modern Detective Stories: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes
This paper reviews the maxims used by three early modern fictional
detectives: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes. It find
similarities between these maxims and Bayesian thought. Poe's Dupin uses ideas
very similar to Bayesian game theory. Sherlock Holmes' statements also show
thought patterns justifiable in Bayesian terms.Comment: Published in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by
the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Discussion of: Bayesian views of an archaeological find
Discussion of ``Statistical analysis of an archeological find'' by Andrey
Feuerverger [arXiv:0804.0079]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS99B the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
The Timing of Bid Placement and Extent of Multiple Bidding: An Empirical Investigation Using eBay Online Auctions
Online auctions are fast gaining popularity in today's electronic commerce.
Relative to offline auctions, there is a greater degree of multiple bidding and
late bidding in online auctions, an empirical finding by some recent research.
These two behaviors (multiple bidding and late bidding) are of ``strategic''
importance to online auctions and hence important to investigate. In this
article we empirically measure the distribution of bid timings and the extent
of multiple bidding in a large set of online auctions, using bidder experience
as a mediating variable. We use data from the popular auction site
\url{www.eBay.com} to investigate more than 10,000 auctions from 15 consumer
product categories. We estimate the distribution of late bidding and multiple
bidding, which allows us to place these product categories along a continuum of
these metrics (the extent of late bidding and the extent of multiple bidding).
Interestingly, the results of the analysis distinguish most of the product
categories from one another with respect to these metrics, implying that
product categories, after controlling for bidder experience, differ in the
extent of multiple bidding and late bidding observed in them. We also find a
nonmonotonic impact of bidder experience on the timing of bid placements.
Experienced bidders are ``more'' active either toward the close of auction or
toward the start of auction. The impact of experience on the extent of multiple
bidding, though, is monotonic across the auction interval; more experienced
bidders tend to indulge ``less'' in multiple bidding.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000123 in the
Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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