Klima, Grundwassernutzung oder Waldbewirtschaftung? Ursachen tendenziell fallender Grundwasserstände am Beispiel Südwest-Usedoms

Tendenziell fallende Grundwasserstände können vielfältige Ursachen haben, z.B. die Änderung der klimatischen Bedingungen, Modifikationen der Landnutzung oder die Entnahme von Grundwasser. Am Beispiel Südwest-Usedoms wird dargestellt, wie mögliche Einflussfaktoren analysiert und quantifiziert werden können. Für das Untersuchungsgebiet zeigte sich, dass die über Jahrzehnte gesunkenen Grundwasserstände überwiegend aus der Kahlschlagbewirtschaftung des Waldes resultieren und damit weniger einen Trend als eine überjährliche Schwankung ausweisen.researc

A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes

Long-Term Modelling of an Agricultural and Urban River Catchment with SWMM Upgraded by the Evapotranspiration Model UrbanEVA

Evapotranspiration (ET) has a decisive effect on groundwater recharge and thus also affects the base flow of the receiving water. This applies above all to low-lying areas with a low depth to groundwater (GW), as is often the case in the north German lowlands. In order to analyze this relation, a coupled rainfall-runoff and hydraulic stream model was set up using the software SWMM-UrbanEVA, a version of the software SWMM that was upgraded by a detailed ET module. A corresponding model was set up for the same site but with the conventional software SWMM to compare the water balance and hydrographs. The total amount of ET calculated with the SWMM software is 7% higher than that computed with the upgraded version in the period considered. Therefore, less water is available for soil infiltration and lateral groundwater flow to the stream. This generally leads to a slight underestimation of base flows, with the exception of a notably wet summer month when the base flows were highly overestimated. Nevertheless, the base flow hydrograph shows a good adaptation to observed values (MAE = 0.014 m3s−1, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.81) but gives worse results compared to SWMM-UrbanEVA. The latter is very well able to reflect the GW-fed base flow in the sample stream in average (MAE = 0.011 m3s−1) and in its dynamics (R = 0.93, NSE = 0.85). By applying the UrbanEVA upgrade, SWMM is applicable to model the seasonal dynamics of near-natural river basins

A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 2: Scenario-Based Flood Characteristics for the Planned State of Land Use

Land use changes can significantly influence the water balance, and thus especially the development of flood-triggering runoff peaks. Hence, it is advisable to assess possible changes already at the level of municipal planning. Since many different actors are usually involved in spatial planning, it is useful to provide a shared platform where stakeholders can access the same information to analyze and evaluate flood hazards. Therefore, a GIS routine for the prediction of soil sealing induced runoff peaks and resulting potential flooding in the watercourse was developed, which is embedded in a GIS based decision support system (GIS-DSS). The so-called storm water routine (SWR) is founded on preprocessed flood characteristics, calculated by means of hydrological/hydraulic models (described in part 1). The potential impact of land use change is assessed purely in GIS as flow difference which is routed through the river system. To validate this simplified method, a process model was set up with an exemplary land use change and its results were compared with the GIS-based results. For 16 of the 18 rainfall scenarios tested, the SWR provided very good to good agreement with the detailed model. For short and highly dynamic rain events the SWR approach is less reliable. Several supplements like the integration of LID are conceivable

Combined approaches to predict microplastic emissions within an urbanized estuary (Warnow, Southwestern Baltic Sea)

Microplastic river emissions are known to be one of the major sources for marine microplastic pollution. Especially urbanized estuaries localized at the land-sea interface and subjected to microplastic emissions from various sources exhibit a high microplastic discharge potential to adjacent coasts. To adapt effective measures against microplastic emissions a more detailed knowledge on the importance of various microplastic sources is necessary. As field data is scarce we combined different approaches to assess microplastic emissions into the Warnow estuary, southwestern Baltic Sea. Resulting microplastic emission estimates are based on in-situ measurements for the catchment emissions, whereas for the remaining microplastic sources within the estuary literature data on microplastic abundances, and various parameters were used (e.g. demographical, hydrological, geographical). The evaluation of the different emission scenarios revealed that the majority of microplastic is likely discharged by the Warnow river catchment (49.4%) and the separated city stormwater system (43.1%) into the estuary, followed by combined sewer discharges (6.1%). Wastewater treatment plant emissions exhibit the lowest percentage (1.4%). Our approach to estimate anti-fouling paint particles emissions from leisure and commercial shipping activities was associated with highest uncertainties. However, our results indicate the importance of this source highlighting the necessity for future research on the topic. Based on our assumptions for microplastic retention within the estuary, we estimate a potential annual emission of 152–291 billion microplastics (majority within the size class 10–100 µm) to the Baltic Sea. Considering all uncertainties of the different applied approaches, we could assess the importance of various microplastic sources which can be used by authorities to prioritize and establish emission reduction measures. Additionally, the study provides parameters for microplastic emission estimates that can be transferred from our model system to other urbanized Baltic estuaries