Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

Background: the efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately.Methods: first, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs) for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database.Results: masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified.Conclusion: the availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mappe

Establishing the extent of malaria transmission and challenges facing pre-elimination in the Republic of Djibouti.

BACKGROUND: Countries aiming for malaria elimination require a detailed understanding of the current intensity of malaria transmission within their national borders. National household sample surveys are now being used to define infection prevalence but these are less efficient in areas of exceptionally low endemicity. Here we present the results of a national malaria indicator survey in the Republic of Djibouti, the first in sub-Saharan Africa to combine parasitological and serological markers of malaria, to evaluate the extent of transmission in the country and explore the potential for elimination. METHODS: A national cross-sectional household survey was undertaken from December 2008 to January 2009. A finger prick blood sample was taken from randomly selected participants of all ages to examine for parasitaemia using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and confirmed using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Blood spots were also collected on filter paper and subsequently used to evaluate the presence of serological markers (combined AMA-1 and MSP-119) of Plasmodium falciparum exposure. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for P. falciparum infection and/or exposure. The Getis-Ord G-statistic was used to assess spatial heterogeneity of combined infections and serological markers. RESULTS: A total of 7151 individuals were tested using RDTs of which only 42 (0.5%) were positive for P. falciparum infections and confirmed by PCR. Filter paper blood spots were collected for 5605 individuals. Of these 4769 showed concordant optical density results and were retained in subsequent analysis. Overall P. falciparum sero-prevalence was 9.9% (517/4769) for all ages; 6.9% (46/649) in children under the age of five years; and 14.2% (76/510) in the oldest age group (≥50 years). The combined infection and/or antibody prevalence was 10.5% (550/4769) and varied from 8.1% to 14.1% but overall regional differences were not statistically significant (χ2=33.98, p=0.3144). Increasing age (p<0.001) and decreasing household wealth status (p<0.001) were significantly associated with increasing combined P. falciparum infection and/or antibody prevalence. Significant P. falciparum hot spots were observed in Dikhil region. CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission in the Republic of Djibouti is very low across all regions with evidence of micro-epidemiological heterogeneity and limited recent transmission. It would seem that the Republic of Djibouti has a biologically feasible set of pre-conditions for elimination, however, the operational feasibility and the potential risks to elimination posed by P. vivax and human population movement across the sub-region remain to be properly established

Modelling changing population distributions: an example of the Kenyan Coast, 1979–2009

Large-scale gridded population datasets are usually produced for the year of input census data using a top-down approach and projected backward and forward in time using national growth rates. Such temporal projections do not include any subnational variation in population distribution trends and ignore changes in geographical covariates such as urban land cover changes. Improved predictions of population distribution changes over time require the use of a limited number of covariates that are time-invariant or temporally explicit. Here we make use of recently released multi-temporal high-resolution global settlement layers, historical census data and latest developments in population distribution modelling methods to reconstruct population distribution changes over 30 years across the Kenyan Coast. We explore the methodological challenges associated with the production of gridded population distribution time-series in data-scarce countries and show that trade-offs have to be found between spatial and temporal resolutions when selecting the best modelling approach. Strategies used to fill data gaps may vary according to the local context and the objective of the study. This work will hopefully serve as a benchmark for future developments of population distribution time-series that are increasingly required for population-at-risk estimations and spatial modelling in various fields

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Americas: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

Background: An increasing knowledge of the global risk of malaria shows that the nations of the Americans have the lowest levels of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax endemicity worldwide, sustained, in part, by substantive integrated vector control. To help maintain and better target these efforts, knowledge of the contemporary distribution of each of the dominant vector species (DVS) of human malaria is needed, alongside a comprehensive understanding of the ecology and behaviour of each species.Results: A database of contemporary occurrence data for 41 of the DVS of human malaria was compiled from intensive searches of the formal and informal literature. The results for the nine DVS of the Americas are described in detail here. Nearly 6000 occurrence records were gathered from 25 countries in the region and were complemented by a synthesis of published expert opinion range maps, refined further by a technical advisory group of medical entomologists. A suite of environmental and climate variables of suspected relevance to anopheline ecology were also compiled from open access sources. These three sets of data were then combined to produce predictive species range maps using the Boosted Regression Tree method. The predicted geographic extent for each of the following species (or species complex*) are provided: Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) albimanus Wiedemann, 1820, An. (Nys.) albitaris*, An. (Nys.) aquasalis Curry, 1932, An. (Nys.) darlingi Root, 1926, An. (Anopheles) freeborni Aitken, 1939, An. (Nys.) marajoara Galvāo & Damasceno, 1942, An. (Nys.) nuneztovari*, An. (Ano.) pseudopunctipennis* and An. (Ano.) quadrimaculatus Say, 1824. A bionomics review summarising ecology and behaviour relevant to the the control of each of these species was also compiled.Conclusions: The distribution maps and bionomics review should both be considered as a starting point in an ongoing process of (i) describing the distributions of these DVS (since the opportunistic samples of occurrence data assembled can be substantially improved) and (ii) documenting their contemporary bionomics (since intervention and control pressures can act to modify behavioural traits). This is the first in a series of three articles describing the distribution of the 41 global DVS worldwide. The remaining two publications will describe those vectors found in (i) Africa, Europe and the Middle East and (ii) in Asia. All geographic distribution maps are being made available in the public domain according to the open access principles of the Malaria Atlas Project

A global map of dominant malaria vectors

Background: Global maps, in particular those based on vector distributions, have long been used to help visualise the global extent of malaria. Few, however, have been created with the support of a comprehensive and extensive evidence-based approach.\ud Methods: Here we describe the generation of a global map of the dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria that makes use of predicted distribution maps for individual species or species complexes.\ud Results: Our global map highlights the spatial variability in the complexity of the vector situation. In Africa, An. gambiae, An. arabiensis and An. funestus are co-dominant across much of the continent, whereas in the Asian- Pacific region there is a highly complex situation with multi-species coexistence and variable species dominance.\ud Conclusions: The competence of the mapping methodology to accurately portray DVS distributions is discussed. The comprehensive and contemporary database of species-specific spatial occurrence (currently available on request) will be made directly available via the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) website from early 2012

Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa

There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho

The International Limits and Population at Risk of Plasmodium vivax Transmission in 2009

Growing evidence shows that Plasmodium vivax malaria is clinically less benign than has been commonly believed. In addition, it is the most widely distributed species of human malaria and is likely to cause more illness in certain regions than the more extensively studied P. falciparum malaria. Understanding where P. vivax transmission exists and measuring the number of people who live at risk of infection is a fundamental first step to estimating the global disease toll. The aim of this paper is to generate a reliable map of the worldwide distribution of this parasite and to provide an estimate of how many people are exposed to probable infection. A geographical information system was used to map data on the presence of P. vivax infection and spatial information on climatic conditions that impede transmission (low ambient temperature and extremely arid environments) in order to delineate areas where transmission was unlikely to take place. This map was combined with population distribution data to estimate how many people live in these areas and are, therefore, exposed to risk of infection by P. vivax malaria. The results show that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some level of risk of transmission in 2009

Developing Global Maps of the Dominant Anopheles Vectors of Human Malaria

Simon Hay and colleagues describe how the Malaria Atlas Project has collated anopheline occurrence data to map the geographic distributions of the dominant mosquito vectors of human malaria

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The final article in a series of three publications examining the global distribution of 41 dominant vector species (DVS) of malaria is presented here. The first publication examined the DVS from the Americas, with the second covering those species present in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Here we discuss the 19 DVS of the Asian-Pacific region. This region experiences a high diversity of vector species, many occurring sympatrically, which, combined with the occurrence of a high number of species complexes and suspected species complexes, and behavioural plasticity of many of these major vectors, adds a level of entomological complexity not comparable elsewhere globally. To try and untangle the intricacy of the vectors of this region and to increase the effectiveness of vector control interventions, an understanding of the contemporary distribution of each species, combined with a synthesis of the current knowledge of their behaviour and ecology is needed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Expert opinion (EO) range maps, created with the most up-to-date expert knowledge of each DVS distribution, were combined with a contemporary database of occurrence data and a suite of open access, environmental and climatic variables. Using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) modelling method, distribution maps of each DVS were produced. The occurrence data were abstracted from the formal, published literature, plus other relevant sources, resulting in the collation of DVS occurrence at 10116 locations across 31 countries, of which 8853 were successfully geo-referenced and 7430 were resolved to spatial areas that could be included in the BRT model. A detailed summary of the information on the bionomics of each species and species complex is also presented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This article concludes a project aimed to establish the contemporary global distribution of the DVS of malaria. The three articles produced are intended as a detailed reference for scientists continuing research into the aspects of taxonomy, biology and ecology relevant to species-specific vector control. This research is particularly relevant to help unravel the complicated taxonomic status, ecology and epidemiology of the vectors of the Asia-Pacific region. All the occurrence data, predictive maps and EO-shape files generated during the production of these publications will be made available in the public domain. We hope that this will encourage data sharing to improve future iterations of the distribution maps.</p