Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis

The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met

Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC.

Approaching disease elimination, it is crucial to be able to assess progress towards key objectives using quantitative tools. For Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), the ultimate goal is to stop transmission by 2030, while intermediary targets include elimination as a public health problem - defined as <1 new case per 10,000 inhabitants in 90% of foci, and <2000 reported cases by 2020. Using two independent mathematical models, this study assessed the achievability of these goals in the former Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which historically had endemic levels of disease. The two deterministic models used different assumptions on disease progression, risk of infection and non-participation in screening, reflecting biological uncertainty. To validate the models a censor-fit-uncensor procedure was used to fit to health-zone level data from 2000 to 2012; initially the last six years were censored, then three and the final step utilised all data. The different model projections were used to evaluate the expected transmission and reporting for each health zone within each province under six intervention strategies using currently available tools. In 2012 there were 197 reported HAT cases in former Equateur reduced from 6828 in 2000, however this reflects lower active testing for HAT (1.3% of the population compared to 7.2%). Modelling results indicate that there are likely to be <300 reported cases in former Equateur in 2020 if screening continues at the mean level for 2000-2012 (6.2%), and <120 cases if vector control is introduced. Some health zones may fail to achieve <1 new case per 10,000 by 2020 without vector control, although most appear on track for this target using medical interventions alone. The full elimination goal will be harder to reach; between 39 and 54% of health zones analysed may have to improve their current medical-only strategy to stop transmission completely by 2030

Relationships Between Cardiorespiratory Fitness, Physical Activity, and Psychosocial Variables in Overweight and Obese Breast Cancer Survivors

# The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Background Breast cancer survivors not only experience distressing physical symptoms associated with treatments, but also are faced with psychosocial challenges. Despite growing scientific evidence that physical activity (PA) may mitigate psychosocial distress experienced by women treated for breast cancer, the literature is equivocal. Purpose This study investigated the relationships between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), PA, and psychosocial factors in breast cancer survivors. Method Data involving overweight or obese breast cancer survivors (N=260) were examined. CRF was determined by a submaximal graded exercise test. PA, depressive symptoms, total fatigue, and global self-esteem were assessed with selfreport measures. Pearson&apos;s correlations were conducted to determine associations among CRF, PA, depressive symptoms, total fatigue, and global self-esteem. Multiple regression models, with age and body mass index as covariates, were performed using continuous levels for CRF and PA. Results Bivariate correlations suggested that CRF and PA were unrelated to the psychosocial variables. One of the regression models identified a marginally significant (P=0.06) inverse association between depressive symptoms and PA. Conclusion CRF and PA were not associated with psychosocial factors in this sample of breast cancer survivors. However

Health-seeking behaviour, diagnostics and transmission dynamics in the control of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent.

Countries in the Indian subcontinent have committed to reducing the incidence of kala-azar, a clinical manifestation of visceral leishmaniasis, to below 1 in 10,000 by 2020. We address the role of timing of use and accuracy of diagnostics in kala-azar control and elimination. We use empirical data on health-seeking behaviour and health-system performance from the Indian state of Bihar, Bangladesh and Nepal to parameterize a mathematical model. Diagnosis of cases is key to case management, control and surveillance. Treatment of cases prevents onward transmission, and we show that the differences in time to diagnosis in these three settings explain the observed differences in incidence. Shortening the time from health-care seeking to diagnosis is likely to lead to dramatic reductions in incidence in Bihar, bringing the incidence down to the levels seen in Bangladesh and Nepal. The results emphasize the importance of maintaining population and health-system awareness, particularly as transmission and disease incidence decline. We explore the possibility of diagnosing patients before the onset of clinical kala-azar (before 14 days fever), and show that this could have a marked impact on incidence, even for a moderately sensitive test. However, limited specificity (that results in false positives) is a major barrier to such a strategy. Diagnostic tests of high specificity used at an early stage of active infection, even if sensitivity is only moderate, could have a key role in the control of kala-azar, and prevent its resurgence when paired with the passive health-care system and tests of high sensitivity, such as the test for rK39 antibody response

Water Contaminants Detection Using Sensor Placement Approach in Smart Water Networks

Incidents of water pollution or contamination have occurred repeatedly in recent years, causing significant disasters and negative health impacts. Water quality sensors need to be installed in the water distribution system (WDS) to allow real-time water contamination detection to reduce the risk of water contamination. Deploying sensors in WDS is essential to monitor and detect any pollution incident at the appropriate time. However, it is impossible to place sensors on all nodes of the network due to the relatively large structure of WDS and the high cost of water quality sensors. For that, it is necessary to reduce the cost of deployment and guarantee the reliability of the sensing, such as detection time and coverage of the whole water network. In this paper, a dynamic approach of sensor placement that uses an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) is proposed and implemented. The proposed method generates a multiple set of water contamination scenarios in several locations selected randomly in the WDS. Each contamination scenario spreads in the water networks for several hours, and then the proposed approach simulates the various effect of each contamination scenario on the water networks. On the other hand, the multiple objectives of the sensor placement optimization problem, which aim to find the optimal locations of the deployed sensors, have been formulated. The sensor placement optimization solver, which uses the EA, is operated to find the optimal sensor placements. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been evaluated using two different case studies on the example of water networks: Battle of the Water Sensor Network (BWSN) and another real case study from Madrid (Spain). The results have shown the capability of the proposed method to adapt the location of the sensors based on the numbers and the locations of contaminant sources. Moreover, the results also have demonstrated the ability of the proposed approach for maximising the coverage of deployed sensors and reducing the time to detect all the water contaminants using a few numbers of water quality sensor

Factors associated with cancer-related fatigue in breast cancer patients undergoing endocrine therapy in an urban setting: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fatigue is prevalent in breast cancer survivors and has profound effects on daily life. The interference of fatigue with endocrine therapy may be difficult to separate. This study investigates the prevalence and severity of fatigue and identifies the demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors associated with cancer-related fatigue (CRF) in breast cancer patients undergoing endocrine therapy in an urban area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women with stage I-IIIA breast cancer were recruited and asked to participate (n = 371) in the study. The 315 women who responded to the questionnaire (84.9%), 54 (17.1%) had completed endocrine therapy and 261 (82.9%) were still undergoing endocrine therapy. The patients had been diagnosed at an average of 31 months prior to recruitment (range, 7 to 60 months); the average age was 48 (range, 33 to 72) years. The 11-point scale and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) were employed to quantify the level of fatigue experienced by the patients. Logistic regression analyses and a trend test method were performed to evaluate factors associated with CRF.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 315 patients, 189 (60%) had experienced or were experiencing CRF during endocrine therapy. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with CRF, including BMI (body mass index), clinical stage, menopausal status, duration of endocrine therapy, physical activity, and diet. Factors unrelated to CRF were age, marital status, treatment, endocrine therapy drugs, alcohol intake, and smoking. The trend test method revealed an association between physical activity and dietary level and the intensity of CRF.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present findings suggest that fatigue is an important problem in the majority of breast cancer patients during endocrine therapy. We found that BMI, clinical stage, menopausal status, duration of endocrine therapy, physical activity, and diet are associated with fatigue. Future research should focus on the impact factors of CRF and lifestyle in the management of breast cancer patients.</p

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Lifestyle interventions are feasible in patients with colorectal cancer with potential short-term health benefits:a systematic review

Purpose: Lifestyle interventions have been proposed to improve cancer survivorship in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), but with treatment pathways becoming increasingly multi-modal and prolonged, opportunities for interventions may be limited. This systematic review assessed the evidence for the feasibility of performing lifestyle interventions in CRC patients and evaluated any short- and long-term health benefits. Methods: Using PRISMA Guidelines, selected keywords identified randomised controlled studies (RCTs) of lifestyle interventions [smoking, alcohol, physical activity (PA) and diet/excess body weight] in CRC patients. These electronic databases were searched in June 2015: Dynamed, Cochrane Database, OVID MEDLINE, OVID EMBASE, and PEDro. Results: Fourteen RCTs were identified: PA RCTs (n = 10) consisted mainly of telephone-prompted walking or cycling interventions of varied durations, predominately in adjuvant setting; dietary/excess weight interventions RCTs (n = 4) focused on low-fat and/or high-fibre diets within a multi-modal lifestyle intervention. There were no reported RCTs in smoking or alcohol cessation/reduction. PA and/or dietary/excess weight interventions reported variable recruitment rates, but good adherence and retention/follow-up rates, leading to short-term improvements in dietary quality, physical, psychological and quality-of-life parameters. Only one study assessed long-term follow-up, finding significantly improved cancer-specific survival after dietary intervention. Conclusions: This is the first systematic review on lifestyle interventions in patients with CRC finding these interventions to be feasible with improvements in short-term health. Future work should focus on defining the optimal type of intervention (type, duration, timing and intensity) that not only leads to improved short-term outcomes but also assesses long-term survival