A comparison of prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: This cohort study compared the prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill. METHODS: The relationships between SIG, lactate, anion gap (AG), anion gap albumin-corrected (AG-corrected), base excess or strong ion difference-effective (SIDe), all obtained within the first hour of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the hospital mortality of 6878 patients were analysed. The prognostic significance of each acid-base marker, both alone and in combination with the Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0 III) predicted mortality, were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Of the 6878 patients included in the study, 924 patients (13.4 %) died after ICU admission. Except for plasma chloride concentrations, all acid-base markers were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. SIG (with lactate: AUROC 0.631, confidence interval [CI] 0.611-0.652; without lactate: AUROC 0.521, 95 % CI 0.500-0.542) only had a modest ability to predict hospital mortality, and this was no better than using lactate concentration alone (AUROC 0.701, 95 % 0.682-0.721). Adding AG-corrected or SIG to a combination of lactate and MPM0 III predicted risks also did not substantially improve the latter's ability to differentiate between survivors and non-survivors. Arterial lactate concentrations explained about 11 % of the variability in the observed mortality, and it was more important than SIG (0.6 %) and SIDe (0.9 %) in predicting hospital mortality after adjusting for MPM0 III predicted risks. Lactate remained as the strongest predictor for mortality in a sensitivity multivariate analysis, allowing for non-linearity of all acid-base markers. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic significance of SIG was modest and inferior to arterial lactate concentration for the critically ill. Lactate concentration should always be considered regardless whether physiological, base excess or physical-chemical approach is used to interpret acid-base disturbances in critically ill patients

Discriminative training for Convolved Multiple-Output Gaussian processes

Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP) are probability distributions over vector-valued functions, and have been previously used for multi-output regression and for multi-class classification. A less explored facet of the multi-output Gaussian process is that it can be used as a generative model for vector-valued random fields in the context of pattern recognition. As a generative model, the multi-output GP is able to handle vector-valued functions with continuous inputs, as opposed, for example, to hidden Markov models. It also offers the ability to model multivariate random functions with high dimensional inputs. In this report, we use a discriminative training criteria known as Minimum Classification Error to fit the parameters of a multi-output Gaussian process. We compare the performance of generative training and discriminative training of MOGP in emotion recognition, activity recognition, and face recognition. We also compare the proposed methodology against hidden Markov models trained in a generative and in a discriminative way

“I am not a number!” Opinions and preferences of people with intellectual disability about genetic healthcare

There is limited research exploring the knowledge and experiences of genetic healthcare from the perspective of people with intellectual disability. This study, conducted in New South Wales (Australia), addresses this gap. Eighteen adults with intellectual disability and eight support people were interviewed in this inclusive research study. The transcribed interviews were analysed using inductive content analysis. The findings were discussed in a focus group with ten adults with intellectual disability and in three multi-stakeholder advisory workshops, contributing to the validity and trustworthiness of the findings. Five main themes emerged: (i) access to genetic healthcare services is inequitable, with several barriers to the informed consent process; (ii) the experiences and opinions of people with intellectual disability are variable, including frustration, exclusion and fear; (iii) genetic counselling and diagnoses can be profoundly impactful, but translating a genetic diagnosis into tailored healthcare, appropriate support, peer connections and reproductive planning faces barriers; (iv) people with intellectual disability have a high incidence of exposure to trauma and some reported that their genetic healthcare experiences were associated with further trauma; (v) recommendations for a more respectful and inclusive model of genetic healthcare. Co-designed point-of-care educational and consent resources, accompanied by tailored professional education for healthcare providers, are required to improve the equity and appropriateness of genetic healthcare for people with intellectual disability

Effectiveness of early intervention programs for parents of preterm infants: a meta-review of systematic reviews

Background: Various intervention programs exist for parents of preterm babies and some systematic reviews (SRs) have synthesised the evidence of their effectiveness. These reviews are, however, limited to specific interventions, components, or outcomes, and a comprehensive evidence base is lacking. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise and meta-synthesise the evidence from existing SRs to provide a comprehensive evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions for parents of preterm infants on parental and infant outcomes. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of the following databases to identify relevant SRs: Cochrane library, Web of science, EMBASE, CINAHL, British Nursing Index, PsycINFO, Medline, ScienceDirect, Scopus, IBSS, DOAJ, ERIC, EPPI-Centre, PROSPERO, WHO Library. Additional searches were conducted using authors’ institutional libraries, Google Scholar, and the reference lists of identified reviews. Identified articles were screened in two stages against an inclusion criteria with titles and abstracts screened first followed by full-text screening. Selected SRs were appraised using the AMSTAR tool. Extracted data using a predesigned tool were synthesised narratively examining the direction of impact on outcomes. Results: We found 11 SRs eligible for inclusion that synthesised a total of 343 quantitative primary studies. The average quality of the SRs was ‘medium’. Thirty four interventions were reported across the SRs with considerable heterogeneity in the structural framework and the targeted outcomes that included maternal-infant dyadic, maternal/parental, and infant outcomes. Among all interventions, Kangaroo Care (KC) showed the most frequent positive impact across outcomes (n = 19) followed by Mother Infant Transaction Program (MITP) (n = 14). Other interventions with most consistent positive impact on infant outcomes were Modified-Mother Infant Transaction Program (M-MITP) (n = 6), Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) (n = 5) and Creating Opportunities for Parent Empowerment (COPE) (n = 5). Overall, interventions with both home and facility based components showed the most frequent positive impact across outcomes. Conclusions: Neonatal care policy and planning for preterm babies should consider the implementation of interventions with most positive impact on outcomes. The heterogeneity in interventions and outcomes calls for the development and implementation of an integrated program for parents of preterm infants with a clearly defined global set of parental and infant outcomes

Recreational Physical Activity as an Independent Predictor of Multivariable Cardiovascular Disease Risk

The role of physical activity in preventing CVD has been highlighted by Professor Jerry Morris in the 1950’s. We report outcome of a 15-year prospective study with the aim to identify whether physical activity showed cardiovascular benefit independent of common risk factors and of central obesity. Baseline data of 8662 subjects, with no previous history of heart disease, diabetes or stroke, were obtained from an age- and gender- stratified sample of adults in Australian capital cities and were linked with the National Death Index to determine the causes of death of 610 subjects who had died to 31 December 2004. The study consisted of 4175 males (age 42.3±13.1 years) and 4487 females (age 42.8±13.2 years). Fasting serum lipid levels, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and smoking habits at baseline were recorded. The Framingham Risk Scores of 15-year mortality due to CHD and CVD were calculated using established equations. Subjects were also asked if they engaged in vigorous exercise, less vigorous exercise or walk for recreation and exercise in the past 2 weeks. Subjects in the high recreational physical activity category were 0.16 (0.06–0.43; p<0.001) and 0.12 (0.03–0.48; p = 0.003) times as likely as subjects in the low category for CVD and CHD mortality respectively. After adjusting for both the Framingham Risk Score and central obesity (Waist circumference to Hip circumference Ratio), those in the high recreational physical activity group were 0.35 (0.13–0.98) times less likely compared to the low category for CVD mortality. Recreational physical activity independently predicted reduced cardiovascular mortality over fifteen years. A public health focus on increased physical activity and preventing obesity is required to reduce the risk of CVD and CHD

Informing patients of familial diabetes mellitus risk: How do they respond? A cross-sectional survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A strong family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) confers increased DM risk. This survey analysis determined whether patients who were informed by their doctors of familial DM risk acknowledged that risk and took steps to reduce it.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted an analysis of the National <it>Health Styles 2004 </it>mail survey. All non-diabetic participants who responded to the question of whether their doctor had or had not informed them of their familial DM risk (<it>n </it>= 3,323) were compared for their risk-reducing behaviour and attitude to DM risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-one percent (<it>n </it>= 616) of the question responders that had DM family histories were informed by their doctors of their familial risk; the chance of being informed increased with the number of relatives that had the disease. Members of the informed group were more likely than those in the non-informed group to report lifestyle changes to prevent DM (odds ratio [OR] 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.5–5.2) and being tested for DM (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.4–3.6), although no significant improvement occurred in their U.S.-recommended exercise activity (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.7–1.1). Overall, informed responders recognised both their familial and personal DM risk; most discussed diabetes with their family (69%), though less so with friends (42%); however, 44% of them still did not consider themselves to be at risk.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Responders who were informed by their doctors of being at familial DM risk reported greater incidences of lifestyle changes, DM screening, and awareness of risk than non-informed responders. Doctors were more likely to inform patients with stronger DM family histories. Identifying this higher risk group, either in isolation or in combination with other recognised risk factors, offers doctors the opportunity to target limited health promotion resources efficiently for primary DM prevention.</p

Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976–1992), the NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999–2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions. RESULTS: Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-006-0528-5 and is accessible to authorized users

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p