Do People Taking Flu Vaccines Need Them the Most?

Background: A well targeted flu vaccine strategy can ensure that vaccines go to those who are at the highest risk of getting infected if unvaccinated. However, prior research has not explicitly examined the association between the risk of flu infection and vaccination rates. Purpose: This study examines the relationship between the risk of flu infection and the probability of getting vaccinated. Methods: Nationally representative data from the US and multivariate regression models were used to estimate what individual characteristics are associated with (1) the risk of flu infection when unvaccinated and (2) flu vaccination rates. These results were used to estimate the correlation between the probability of infection and the probability of getting vaccinated. Separate analyses were performed for the general population and the high priority population that is at increased risk of flu related complications. Results: We find that the high priority population was more likely to get vaccinated compared to the general population. However, within both the high priority and general populations the risk of flu infection when unvaccinated was negatively correlated with vaccination rates (r = 20.067, p,0.01). This negative association between the risk of infection when unvaccinated and the probability of vaccination was stronger for the high priority population (r = 20.361, p,0.01). Conclusions: There is a poor match between those who get flu vaccines and those who have a high risk of flu infectio

Can Interactions between Timing of Vaccine-Altered Influenza Pandemic Waves and Seasonality in Influenza Complications Lead to More Severe Outcomes?

Vaccination can delay the peak of a pandemic influenza wave by reducing the number of individuals initially susceptible to influenza infection. Emerging evidence indicates that susceptibility to severe secondary bacterial infections following a primary influenza infection may vary seasonally, with peak susceptibility occurring in winter. Taken together, these two observations suggest that vaccinating to prevent a fall pandemic wave might delay it long enough to inadvertently increase influenza infections in winter, when primary influenza infection is more likely to cause severe outcomes. This could potentially cause a net increase in severe outcomes. Most pandemic models implicitly assume that the probability of severe outcomes does not vary seasonally and hence cannot capture this effect. Here we show that the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission per influenza infection in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic followed a seasonal pattern. We combine this with an influenza transmission model to investigate conditions under which a vaccination program could inadvertently shift influenza susceptibility to months where the risk of ICU admission due to influenza is higher. We find that vaccination in advance of a fall pandemic wave can actually increase the number of ICU admissions in situations where antigenic drift is sufficiently rapid or where importation of a cross-reactive strain is possible. Moreover, this effect is stronger for vaccination programs that prevent more primary influenza infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates several mechanisms that may cause this effect. We also find that the predicted number of ICU admissions changes dramatically depending on whether the probability of ICU admission varies seasonally, or whether it is held constant. These results suggest that pandemic planning should explore the potential interactions between seasonally varying susceptibility to severe influenza outcomes and the timing of vaccine-altered pandemic influenza waves

Insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I obliterates the pregnancy-associated protection against mammary carcinogenesis in rats: evidence that IGF-I enhances cancer progression through estrogen receptor-α activation via the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway

INTRODUCTION: Pregnancy protects against breast cancer development in humans and rats. Parous rats have persistently reduced circulating levels of growth hormone, which may affect the activity of the growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I axis. We investigated the effects of IGF-I on parity-associated protection against mammary cancer. METHODS: Three groups of rats were evaluated in the present study: IGF-I-treated parous rats; parous rats that did not receive IGF-I treatment; and age-matched virgin animals, which also did not receive IGF-I treatment. Approximately 60 days after N-methyl-N-nitrosourea injection, IGF-I treatment was discontinued and all of the animal groups were implanted with a silastic capsule containing 17β-estradiol and progesterone. The 17β-estradiol plus progesterone treatment continued for 135 days, after which the animals were killed. RESULTS: IGF-I treatment of parous rats increased mammary tumor incidence to 83%, as compared with 16% in parous rats treated with 17β-estradiol plus progesterone only. Tumor incidence and average number of tumors per animal did not differ between IGF-I-treated parous rats and age-matched virgin rats. At the time of N-methyl-N-nitrosourea exposure, DNA content was lowest but the α-lactalbumin concentration highest in the mammary glands of untreated parous rats in comparison with age-matched virgin and IGF-I-treated parous rats. The protein levels of estrogen receptor-α in the mammary gland was significantly higher in the age-matched virgin animals than in untreated parous and IGF-I-treated parous rats. Phosphorylation (activation) of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase-1/2 (ERK1/2) and expression of the progesterone receptor were both increased in IGF-I-treated parous rats, as compared with those in untreated parous and age-matched virgin rats. Expressions of cyclin D(1 )and transforming growth factor-β(3 )in the mammary gland were lower in the age-matched virgin rats than in the untreated parous and IGF-I-treated parous rats. CONCLUSION: We argue that tumor initiation (transformation and fixation of mutations) may be similar in parous and age-matched virgin animals, suggesting that the main differences in tumor formation lie in differences in tumor progression caused by the altered hormonal environment associated with parity. Furthermore, we provide evidence supporting the notion that tumor growth promotion seen in IGF-I-treated parous rats is caused by activation of estrogen receptor-α via the Raf/Ras/mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade