Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions---southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia---and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1Â month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90% of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2Â weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes

Reduced fetal growth velocity precedes antepartum fetal death

ObjectivesTo determine whether decreased fetal growth velocity precedes antepartum fetal death and to evaluate whether fetal growth velocity is a better predictor of antepartum fetal death compared to a single fetal biometric measurement at the last available ultrasound scan prior to diagnosis of demise.MethodsThis was a retrospective, longitudinal study of 4285 singleton pregnancies in African- American women who underwent at least two fetal ultrasound examinations between 14 and 32- weeks of gestation and delivered a liveborn neonate (controls; n- =- 4262) or experienced antepartum fetal death (cases; n- =- 23). Fetal death was defined as death diagnosed at - ¥- 20- weeks of gestation and confirmed by ultrasound examination. Exclusion criteria included congenital anomaly, birth at <- 20- weeks of gestation, multiple gestation and intrapartum fetal death. The ultrasound examination performed at the time of fetal demise was not included in the analysis. Percentiles for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and individual biometric parameters were determined according to the Hadlock and Perinatology Research Branch/Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (PRB/NICHD) fetal growth standards. Fetal growth velocity was defined as the slope of the regression line of the measurement percentiles as a function of gestational age based on two or more measurements in each pregnancy.ResultsCases had significantly lower growth velocities of EFW (P- <- 0.001) and of fetal head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference and femur length (all P- <- 0.05) compared to controls, according to the PRB/NICHD and Hadlock growth standards. Fetuses with EFW growth velocity <- 10th percentile of the controls had a 9.4- fold and an 11.2- fold increased risk of antepartum death, based on the Hadlock and customized PRB/NICHD standards, respectively. At a 10% false- positive rate, the sensitivity of EFW growth velocity for predicting antepartum fetal death was 56.5%, compared to 26.1% for a single EFW percentile evaluation at the last available ultrasound examination, according to the customized PRB/NICHD standard.ConclusionsGiven that 74% of antepartum fetal death cases were not diagnosed as small- for- gestational age (EFW <- 10th percentile) at the last ultrasound examination when the fetuses were alive, alternative approaches are needed to improve detection of fetuses at risk of fetal death. Longitudinal sonographic evaluation to determine growth velocity doubles the sensitivity for prediction of antepartum fetal death compared to a single EFW measurement at the last available ultrasound examination, yet the performance is still suboptimal. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/168272/1/uog23111_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/168272/2/uog23111.pd