Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative

This paper argues that major oil price increases were not nearly as essential a part of the causal mechanism that generated the stagflation of the 1970s as is often thought. There is neither a theoretical presumption that oil supply shocks are stagflationary nor robust empirical evidence for this view. In contrast, we show that monetary expansions and contractions can generate stagflation of realistic magnitude even in the absence of supply shocks. Furthermore, monetary fluctuations help to explain the historical movements of the prices of oil and other commodities, including the surge in the prices of industrial commodities that preceded the 1973/74 oil price increase. Thus, they can account for the striking coincidence of major oil price increases and worsening stagflation.

Catastrophic forgetting: still a problem for DNNs

We investigate the performance of DNNs when trained on class-incremental visual problems consisting of initial training, followed by retraining with added visual classes. Catastrophic forgetting (CF) behavior is measured using a new evaluation procedure that aims at an application-oriented view of incremental learning. In particular, it imposes that model selection must be performed on the initial dataset alone, as well as demanding that retraining control be performed only using the retraining dataset, as initial dataset is usually too large to be kept. Experiments are conducted on class-incremental problems derived from MNIST, using a variety of different DNN models, some of them recently proposed to avoid catastrophic forgetting. When comparing our new evaluation procedure to previous approaches for assessing CF, we find their findings are completely negated, and that none of the tested methods can avoid CF in all experiments. This stresses the importance of a realistic empirical measurement procedure for catastrophic forgetting, and the need for further research in incremental learning for DNNs.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures, Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning - ICANN 201

Automated NLO QCD Corrections with WHIZARD

We briefly discuss the current status of NLO QCD automation in the Monte Carlo event generator WHIZARD. The functionality is presented for the explicit study of off-shell top quark production with associated backgrounds at a lepton collider.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the European Physical Society Conference on High Energy Physics 2015 (EPS-HEP 2015), Vienna, Austria, 22nd to 29th of July 201

Matching NLO QCD Corrections in WHIZARD with the POWHEG scheme

Building on the new automatic subtraction of NLO amplitudes in WHIZARD, we present our implementation of the POWHEG scheme to match radiative corrections consistently with the parton shower. We apply this general framework to two linear collider processes, $e^+e^-\,\to\,t\bar{t}$ and $e^+e^-\,\to\,t\bar{t}H$.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the European Physical Society Conference on High Energy Physics 2015 (EPS-HEP 2015), Vienna, Austria, 22nd to 29th of July 201

QCD NLO with Powheg matching and top threshold matching in WHIZARD

We present the status of the automation of NLO processes within the event generator WHIZARD. The program provides an automated FKS subtraction and phase space integration over the FKS regions, while the (QCD) NLO matrix element is accessed via the Binoth Les Houches Interface from an externally linked one-loop program. Massless and massive test cases and validation are shown for several e+e- processes. Furthermore, we discuss work in progress and future plans. The second part covers the matching of the NRQCD prediction with NLL threshold resummation to the NLO continuum top pair production at lepton colliders. Both the S-wave and P-wave production of the top pair are taken into account in the resummation. The inclusion in WHIZARD allows to study more exclusive observables than just the total cross section and automatically accounts for important electroweak and relativistic corrections in the threshold region.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, Talk given at 12th International Symposium on Radiative Corrections (Radcor 2015) and LoopFest XIV (Radiative Corrections for the LHC and Future Colliders); v2: reference adde

Automation of NLO processes and decays and POWHEG matching in WHIZARD

We give a status report on the automation of next-to-leading order processes within the Monte Carlo event generator WHIZARD, using GoSam and OpenLoops as provider for one-loop matrix elements. To deal with divergences, WHIZARD uses automated FKS subtraction, and the phase space for singular regions is generated automatically. NLO examples for both scattering and decay processes with a focus on e+e- processes are shown. Also, first NLO-studies of observables for collisions of polarized leptons beams, e.g. at the ILC, will be presented. Furthermore, the automatic matching of the fixed-order NLO amplitudes with emissions from the parton shower within the POWHEG formalism inside WHIZARD will be discussed. We also present results for top pairs at threshold in lepton collisions, including matching between a resummed threshold calculation and fixed-order NLO. This allows the investigation of more exclusive differential observables.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, Talk presented at ACAT 2016 at UTFSM, Valpara\'iso, Chil

Modern Particle Physics Event Generation with WHIZARD

We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis will be given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development will be discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.Comment: 7 pages; contribution to the proceedings of the conference "ACAT 2014 (Advanced Computing and Analysis Techniques in physics)", Prague, Czech Republic, September 201

Top Physics in WHIZARD

In this talk we summarize the top physics setup in the event generator WHIZARD with a main focus on lepton colliders. This includes full six-, eight- and ten-fermion processes, factorized processes and spin correlations. For lepton colliders, QCD NLO processes for top quark physics are available and will be discussed. A special focus is on the top-quark pair threshold, where a special implementation combines a non-relativistic effective field theory calculation augmented by a next-to-leading threshold logarithm resummation with a continuum relativistic fixed-order QCD NLO simulation.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, Talk presented at the International Workshop on Future Linear Colliders (LCWS15), Whistler, Canada, 2-6 November 201

Order from disorder: Quantum spin gap in magnon spectra of LaTiO_3

A theory of the anisotropic superexchange and low energy spin excitations in a Mott insulator with t_{2g} orbital degeneracy is presented. We observe that the spin-orbit coupling induces frustrating Ising-like anisotropy terms in the spin Hamiltonian, which invalidate noninteracting spin wave theory. The frustration of classical states is resolved by an order from disorder mechanism, which selects a particular direction of the staggered moment and generates a quantum spin gap. The theory explains well the observed magnon gaps in LaTiO_3. As a test case, a specific prediction is made on the splitting of magnon branches at certain momentum directions.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, final versio

Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record

D.B.K. was supported by NERC Fellowship grant NE/I02089X/1 and W.K. by DFG grant Ki 806/12-1. Jonny Beedell is thanked for his help in data compilation and Michael Joachimski for discussions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD