Demand Driven Innovation and Uncertainty: Evidence from diffusion of flat panel TV (Japanese)

In a case-study, we show that developing new goods is constrained by demand uncertainty. It was believed that knowing "needs" would be critical for R&D investment decisions, and thus developing new goods. However, although the need for flat panel televisions was known for many years, they were not developed for a long time. It was not a limitation of technology but demand uncertainty that prevented the innovation. The implication of this case study is that reducing uncertainty is effective in promoting innovation.

The Impact of Deregulation in the Retail Sector: Implications for the aging society (Japanese)

In this paper we consider the implications for Japan's aging society and low birth-rate with respect to the enhancement of efficiency in the retail sector. While it is, in general, difficult to measure the productivity of the retail sector, we made it possible, using a deregulation as a natural experiment, to evaluate the impact of the enhancement of efficiency on economic welfare. The efficiency of the retail sector plays an important role in an aging society from two perspectives. First, there is the perspective of the achievement of innovation. The second perspective is that for elderly people and women in employment, the burden of purchasing behavior itself is heavy, and determines quality of life. Specifically, in this paper we analyze an aspect of the deregulation implemented in March 1999 that had a particularly large impact, namely the effective liberalization of the sale of medicinal drinks, so as to analyze the effect of the enhancement of the efficiency of the retail sector. As a result of deregulation it became possible for almost all supermarkets to sell medicinal drinks, and their sales volume increased abruptly. We show that, on the other hand, prices did not fall commensurately, and the effects of deregulation impacted consumers through non-price factors. In addition, the very fact that the number of outlets selling the drinks increased may have made it more convenient for consumers, and so we build a model to decompose the price-lowering effect of deregulation and the non-price effect in the form of the enhancement of convenience. According to our estimations, the deregulation has had an economic welfare improvement effect equivalent to �15.1 billion income increase, assessed by using compensating variation. We also find that at least 90% of this effect is not attributable to price-lowering effect but to a non-price factor, namely the enhancement of convenience. Our study thus demonstrates that the enhancement of the efficiency of the retail sector is an important means of innovation, and that through convenience it has the effect of enhancing the quality of life.

Consumption Behavior of Elderly Households and Price Index (Japanese)

This paper constructs a price index for elderly households in which differences in expenditure share and points of purchase are explicitly taken into account. Elderly households spend more on food and medical care, while younger households spend more on education, transportation, and communications. As for points of purchase, in general, elderly households spend less in discount stores. These differences result in an underestimation of the inflation rate for elderly households by 2%, of which, 1.5% is due to differences in expenditure share and 0.5% is due to differences in points of purchase. However, even after taking such differences into account, the inflation rate for the elderly is less than that derived from the official CPI, which does not take into account points of purchase. Accordingly, the existing price indexation of pension benefits likely results in higher-than-appropriate benefit levels.

Prognostic Impact of Renal Dysfunction Does Not Differ According to the Clinical Profiles of Patients: Insight from the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Syndromes (ATTEND) Registry

<div><p>Background</p><p>Renal dysfunction associated with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is associated with impaired outcomes. Its mechanism is attributed to renal arterial hypoperfusion or venous congestion, but its prognostic impact based on each of these clinical profiles requires elucidation.</p><p>Methods and Results</p><p>ADHF syndromes registry subjects were evaluated (N = 4,321). Logistic regression modeling calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for in-hospital mortality for patients with and without renal dysfunction. Renal dysfunction risk was calculated for subgroups with hypoperfusion-dominant (eg. cold extremities, a low mean blood pressure or a low proportional pulse pressure) or congestion-dominant clinical profiles (eg. peripheral edema, jugular venous distension, or elevated brain natriuretic peptide) to evaluate renal dysfunction's prognostic impact in the context of the two underlying mechanisms. On admission, 2,150 (49.8%) patients aged 73.3±13.6 years had renal dysfunction. Compared with patients without renal dysfunction, those with renal dysfunction were older and had dominant ischemic etiology jugular venous distension, more frequent cold extremities, and higher brain natriuretic peptide levels. Renal dysfunction was associated with in-hospital mortality (OR 2.36; 95% confidence interval 1.75–3.18, p<0.001), and the prognostic impact of renal dysfunction was similar in subgroup of patients with hypoperfusion- or congestion-dominant clinical profiles (p-value for the interaction ranged from 0.104–0.924, and was always >0.05).</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Baseline renal dysfunction was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in ADHF patients. The prognostic impact of renal dysfunction was the same, regardless of its underlying etiologic mechanism.</p></div

Relationship between the baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates and in-hospital mortality.

<p>eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate.</p

All-cause mortality in different patient subgroups.

<p>Abbreviation; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; mBP, mean blood pressure; PPP, proportional pulse pressure; JVP, juglur venous distension; BNP, brain natriuretic peptide; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction.</p><p>All-cause mortality in different patient subgroups.</p

The prognostic impact of renal dysfunction in the prediction of all-cause mortality in relation to the underlying etiologic mechanisms.

<p>LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; mBP, mean blood pressure; PPP, proportional pulse pressure; JVD, jugular venous distension; BNP, brain natriuretic peptide.</p

Management of patients with and without renal dysfunction.

<p>Data are expressed as mean ± standard deviation (SD), as number (percentage), or as median (interquartile range).</p><p>eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; NIPPV, non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation; ACE-I, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor; ARB, angiotensin II receptor blocker.</p><p>Management of patients with and without renal dysfunction.</p

Distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rates levels on admission to hospital.

<p>GFR, glomerular filtration rate</p

Evaluation of the receiver operating characteristic curve for renal dysfunction.

<p>The area under the curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval = 0.61–0.64, p<0.001), and the cut-off value for the greatest sensitivity and specificity was 50.25 mL/min/1.73 m². GFR, glomerular filtration rate; CI, confidence interval; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.</p