Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed

Inter-laboratory proficiency tests in measuring thermal insulation and evaporative resistance of clothing using the Newton-type thermal manikin

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Textile Research Journal and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0040517516681957.Clothing acts as an important barrier for heat and vapour transfer between a human body and the environment. Parameters that could describe that transfer include, i.a. the thermal insulation (the so-called dry heat exchange) and the evaporative resistance (the so-called wet heat exchange). Once the above mentioned parameters are determined, it is possible to consciously adapt clothing ensembles to the existing thermal environment in the workplace. In order to validate the mentioned method of thermal insulation and evaporative resistance measurements, the proficiency tests (PT) were organised. The main goal of the PT was to compare thermal insulation and evaporative resistance for one set of clothing using the Newton-type thermal manikin. In total, 4 laboratories participated in the PT study. The reference value of the thermal insulation (It) and evaporative resistance (Ret) were calculated as the mean of all the results. The assessment criteria included: a permissible error for thermal insulation and evaporative resistance measurements was 4% and 10%, respectively. Calculations included, i.a., z-scores and indicators, such as the interlaboratory coefficient of variation or the reproducibility limit. The results contribute to the worldwide discussion on standardised studies of evaporative resistance of clothing

Socioeconomic position, macroeconomic environment and overweight among adolescents in 35 countries

ObjectiveIt is important to understand levels and social inequalities in childhood overweight within and between countries. This study examined prevalence and social inequality in adolescent overweight in 35 countries, and associations with macroeconomic factors.DesignInternational cross-sectional survey in national samples of schools.SubjectsA total of 11-, 13- and 15-year-olds from 35 countries in Europe and North America in 2001-2002 (N=162 305).MeasurementsThe main outcome measure was overweight based on self-reported height and weight (body mass index cut-points corresponding to body mass index of 25 kg/m(2) at the age of 18 years). Measures included family and school affluence (within countries), and average country income and economic inequality (between countries).ResultsThere were large variations in adolescent overweight, from 3.5% in Lithuanian girls to 31.7% in boys from Malta. Prevalence of overweight was higher among children from less affluent families in 21 of 24 Western and 5 of 10 Central European countries. However, children from more affluent families were at higher risk of overweight in Croatia, Estonia and Latvia. In Poland, Lithuania, Macedonia and Finland, girls from less affluent families were more overweight whereas the opposite was found for boys. Average country income was associated with prevalence and inequality in overweight when considering all countries together. However, economic inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient was differentially associated with prevalence and socioeconomic inequality in overweight among the 23-high income and 10-middle income countries, with a positive relationship among the high income countries and a negative association among the middle income countries.ConclusionThe direction and magnitude of social inequality in adolescent overweight shows large international variation, with negative social gradients in most countries, but positive social gradients, especially for boys, in some Central European countries. Macroeconomic factors are associated with the heterogeneity in prevalence and social inequality of adolescent overweight.P Due, MT Damsgaard, M Rasmussen, BE Holstein, J Wardle, J Merlo, C Currie, N Ahluwalia, TIA Sørensen, J Lynch, plus the HBSC Obesity Writing Grou