Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections

In mathematical studies of the dynamics of multi-strain diseases caused by antigenically diverse pathogens, there is a substantial interest in analytical insights. Using the example of a generic model of multi-strain diseases with cross-immunity between strains, we show that a significant understanding of the stability of steady states and possible dynamical behaviours can be achieved when the symmetry of interactions between strains is taken into account. Techniques of equivariant bifurcation theory allow one to identify the type of possible symmetry-breaking Hopf bifurcation, as well as to classify different periodic solutions in terms of their spatial and temporal symmetries. The approach is also illustrated on other models of multi-strain diseases, where the same methodology provides a systematic understanding of bifurcation scenarios and periodic behaviours. The results of the analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of a large class of models of multi-strain diseases

Does the risk of cerebral palsy increase or decrease with increasing gestational age?

BACKGROUND: It is generally accepted that the risk of cerebral palsy decreases with increasing gestational age of live born infants. However, recent studies have shown that cerebral palsy often has prenatal antecedents including congenital malformations, vascular insults and maternal infection. Cerebral palsy is therefore better viewed as occurring among fetuses, rather than among infants. We explored the epidemiologic implications of this change in perspective. METHODS: We used recently published data from Shiga Prefecture, Japan and from North-East England to examine the pattern of gestational age-specific rates of cerebral palsy under these alternative perspectives. We first calculated gestational age-specific rates of cerebral palsy as per convention, by dividing the number of cases of cerebral palsy identified among live births within any gestational age category by the number of live births in that gestational age category. Under the alternative formulation, we calculated gestational age-specific rates of cerebral palsy by dividing the number of cases of cerebral palsy identified among live births within any gestational age category by the number of fetuses who were at risk of being born at that gestation and being afflicted with cerebral palsy. RESULTS: Under the conventional formulation, cerebral palsy rates decreased with increasing gestational age from 63.9 per 1,000 live births at <28 weeks gestation to 0.9 per 1,000 live births at 37 or more weeks gestation. When fetuses were viewed as potential candidates for cerebral palsy, cerebral palsy rates increased with increasing gestational age from 0.08 per 1,000 fetuses at risk at <28 weeks gestation to 0.9 per 1,000 fetuses at risk at 37 or more weeks gestation. CONCLUSIONS: The fetuses-at-risk approach is the appropriate epidemiologic formulation for calculating the gestational age-specific rate of cerebral palsy from a causal perspective. It shows that the risk of cerebral palsy increases as gestational duration increases. This compelling view of cerebral palsy risk may help refocus research aimed at understanding and preventing cerebral palsy

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Mineral chemistry of igneous melanite garnets from analcite-bearing volcanic rocks, Alberta, Canada

The mineral chemistry of melanite garnets from the Crowsnest volcanic rocks of SW Alberta, Canada, has been investigated by using electron microprobe scans, quantitative analyses and multivariate statistical analysis. The garnets occur with aegirine-augite, sanidine, analcite and rare plagioclase as phenocrysts in trachyte and phonolite flows, agglomerates and tuffs. Wavelength dispersive microprobe scans reveal complex zonation patterns, both normal and oscillatory. The results of fifty quantitative analyses were subjected to R-mode factor analysis to delineate the chemical exchanges producing the zonation. The chemical zonation of the garnets may be attributed to four independent binary exchanges; Al-Fe3+, Si-Ti, Ca-Mn and Mg-Fe2+. The stoichiometry of these garnets, based on microprobe and wet chemical Fe analyses, combined with the strongly antithetic behavior of Si and Ti lead us to infer that the Ti in these garnets is dominantly tetravalent. It is clear from this study that quantitative modelling of the processes of crystal growth and zonation of melanite garnets in alkaline, undersaturated igneous rocks should be aimed at simulating the four chemical exchanges listed above

Cost of dengue and other febrile illnesses to households in rural Cambodia: a prospective community-based case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The average annual reported dengue incidence in Cambodia is 3.3/1,000 among children < 15 years of age (2002–2007). To estimate the economic burden of dengue, accurate cost-of-illness data are essential. We conducted a prospective, community-based, matched case-control study to assess the cost and impact of an episode of dengue fever and other febrile illness on households in rural Cambodia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2006, active fever surveillance was conducted among a cohort of 6,694 children aged ≤ 15 years in 16 villages in Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Subsequently, a case-control study was performed by individually assigning one non-dengue febrile control from the cohort to each laboratory-confirmed dengue case. Parents of cases and controls were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire to determine household-level, illness-related expenditures for medical and non-medical costs, and estimated income loss (see Additional file <supplr sid="S1">1</supplr>). The household socio-economic status was determined and its possible association with health seeking behaviour and the ability to pay for the costs of a febrile illness.</p> <suppl id="S1"> <title> <p>Additional File 1</p> </title> <text> <p><b>2006 cost study survey questionnaire, Cambodia</b>. the questionnaire represents the data collection instrument that was developed and used during the present study.</p> </text> <file name="1471-2458-9-155-S1.pdf"> <p>Click here for file</p> </file> </suppl> <p>Results</p> <p>Between September and November 2006, a total of 60 household heads were interviewed: 30 with dengue-positive and 30 with dengue-negative febrile children. Mean total dengue-related costs did not differ from those of other febrile illnesses (31.5 vs. 27.2 US$, p = 0.44). Hospitalization almost tripled the costs of dengue (from 14.3 to 40.1 US$) and doubled the costs of other febrile illnesses (from 17.0 to 36.2 US$). To finance the cost of a febrile illness, 67$ and higher debt was associated with hospitalization compared to outpatient treatment (US$23.1 vs. US$ 4.5, p < 0.001). These costs compared to an average one-week expenditure on food of US$ 9.5 per household (range 2.5–21.3). In multivariate analysis, higher socio-economic status (odds ratio [OR] 4.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4–13.2), duration of fever (OR 2.1; 95%CI 1.3–3.5), and age (OR 0.8; 95%CI 0.7–0.9) were independently associated with hospitalization.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Cambodia, dengue and other febrile illnesses pose a financial burden to households. A possible reason for a lower rate of hospitalization among children from poor households could be the burden of higher illness-related costs and debts.</p

Conserving Conflict? Transfrontier Conservation, Development Discourses and Local Conflict Between South Africa and Lesotho

This paper describes and analyses how discourses of conservation and development as well as migrant labour practices can be understood as transnational dynamics that both cement and complicate transnational relations. It also looks into how these dynamics articulate with, shape and are being shaped by ‘the local’. Focusing on the north-eastern boundary of Lesotho in the area of the ‘Maloti-Drakensberg transfrontier conservation and development project’, we show how conflictual situations put the ethnographic spotlight on the ways in which ‘local people’ in Lesotho deal with dual forces of localisation and transnationalisation. We argue that they accommodate, even appropriate, these dual pressures by adopting an increasingly flexible stance in terms of identity, alliances, livelihood options and discourses

Cured meat, vegetables, and bean-curd foods in relation to childhood acute leukemia risk: A population based case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Consumption of cured/smoked meat and fish leads to the formation of carcinogenic <it>N-</it>nitroso compounds in the acidic stomach. This study investigated whether consumed cured/smoked meat and fish, the major dietary resource for exposure to nitrites and nitrosamines, is associated with childhood acute leukemia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A population-based case-control study of Han Chinese between 2 and 20 years old was conducted in southern Taiwan. 145 acute leukemia cases and 370 age- and sex-matched controls were recruited between 1997 and 2005. Dietary data were obtained from a questionnaire. Multiple logistic regression models were used in data analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Consumption of cured/smoked meat and fish more than once a week was associated with an increased risk of acute leukemia (OR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.15–2.64). Conversely, higher intake of vegetables (OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.37–0.83) and bean-curd (OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.34–0.89) was associated with a reduced risk. No statistically significant association was observed between leukemia risk and the consumption of pickled vegetables, fruits, and tea.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Dietary exposure to cured/smoked meat and fish may be associated with leukemia risk through their contents of nitrites and nitrosamines among children and adolescents, and intake of vegetables and soy-bean curd may be protective.</p

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Distinct fibroblast lineages determine dermal architecture in skin development and repair

This work was funded by the Wellcome Trust (F.M.W., A.C.F.-S.), the Medical Research Council (MRC) (F.M.W., A.C.F.-S.) and the European Union FP7 programme: TUMIC (F.M.W.), HEALING (F.M.W.) and EpigeneSys (A.C.F.-S.). B.M.L. is the recipient of a FEBS long-term fellowship. K.K. is the recipient of a MRC PhD Studentship. The authors acknowledge financial support from the Department of Health via theNational Institute forHealth Research (NIHR) comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre award to Guy’s & St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London (KCL) and King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. Input from M. Mastrogiannaki, A. Reimer and B. Trappmann is gratefully acknowledged