Mapping systematic errors in helium abundance determinations using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Monte Carlo techniques have been used to evaluate the statistical and systematic uncertainties in the helium abundances derived from extragalactic H~II regions. The helium abundance is sensitive to several physical parameters associated with the H~II region. In this work, we introduce Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to efficiently explore the parameter space and determine the helium abundance, the physical parameters, and the uncertainties derived from observations of metal poor nebulae. Experiments with synthetic data show that the MCMC method is superior to previous implementations (based on flux perturbation) in that it is not affected by biases due to non-physical parameter space. The MCMC analysis allows a detailed exploration of degeneracies, and, in particular, a false minimum that occurs at large values of optical depth in the He~I emission lines. We demonstrate that introducing the electron temperature derived from the [O~III] emission lines as a prior, in a very conservative manner, produces negligible bias and effectively eliminates the false minima occurring at large optical depth. We perform a frequentist analysis on data from several "high quality" systems. Likelihood plots illustrate degeneracies, asymmetries, and limits of the determination. In agreement with previous work, we find relatively large systematic errors, limiting the precision of the primordial helium abundance for currently available spectra.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figure

Raman structural study of random olefin copolymers

In this work we present Raman study of random copolymers of ethylene and propylene with a number of α-olefins, and investigation of the relationships between the spectral characteristics of the Raman lines and the copolymer structural properties. For both the copolymers we observed rapid decrease in the crystallinity and conformational order as the content of the incorporated monomer increases

A New Approach to Systematic Uncertainties and Self-Consistency in Helium Abundance Determinations

Tests of big bang nucleosynthesis and early universe cosmology require precision measurements for helium abundance determinations. However, efforts to determine the primordial helium abundance via observations of metal poor H II regions have been limited by significant uncertainties. This work builds upon previous work by providing an updated and extended program in evaluating these uncertainties. Procedural consistency is achieved by integrating the hydrogen based reddening correction with the helium based abundance calculation, i.e., all physical parameters are solved for simultaneously. We include new atomic data for helium recombination and collisional emission based upon recent work by Porter et al. and wavelength dependent corrections to underlying absorption are investigated. The set of physical parameters has been expanded here to include the effects of neutral hydrogen collisional emission. Because of a degeneracy between the solutions for density and temperature, the precision of the helium abundance determinations is limited. Also, at lower temperatures (T \lesssim 13,000 K) the neutral hydrogen fraction is poorly constrained resulting in a larger uncertainty in the helium abundances. Thus the derived errors on the helium abundances for individual objects are larger than those typical of previous studies. The updated emissivities and neutral hydrogen correction generally raise the abundance. From a regression to zero metallicity, we find Y_p as 0.2561 \pm 0.0108, in broad agreement with the WMAP result. Tests with synthetic data show a potential for distinct improvement, via removal of underlying absorption, using higher resolution spectra. A small bias in the abundance determination can be reduced significantly and the calculated helium abundance error can be reduced by \sim 25%.Comment: 51 pages, 13 figure

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Green and Resilient City: Obligatory Requirements and Voluntary Actions in Moscow

The interest to the sustainable development, resilience and smartness of cities and communities has been growing globally since 1980s. City governments have been working out strategies, forming unions and associations, and exchanging experience in facing urbanization challenges and managing city assets sustainably. Authors consider international initiatives and standards providing for the common background needed to work out and implement sustainable development and resilience strategies and management plans as well as to assess and compare results achieved. Major initiatives analyzed include the United Nations HABITAT Program, the International “Green City Index” research, the network of the world’s megacities committed to addressing climate change (C40), the Charter of European Cities and Towns Towards Sustainability (Aalborg Charter) and the Working Group on Environmentally Sustainable Cities of Association of Southeast Asian Nations. A new series of the International Organization for Standardization standards ISO 37000 establishing requirements to management systems for sustainable development of communities and offering guidance in setting aims and objectives and measuring success is considered. Peculiarities of the understanding and use of these standards in Russia are described. Authors study a wide range of legal requirements set by Moscow city government in the period of 1993–2018 and demonstrate advantages and shortcoming of the legal acts passed and enforced. Consider voluntary actions undertaken by the local community, non-governmental organizations and educational establishments. The Chapter demonstrates the need for systematizing patchy policy documents and research projects. The case for the restoration of Moscow water bodies (small rivers) as backbones of the urban ecological network will be elaborated. © 2020, Springer Nature Switzerland AG