The PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project: preliminary results of the PRIME experiment for a Dynamic Assessment Of Seismic Risk (DASR) by multi-parametric observations

The appearance of anomalous space-time patterns of geophysical parameters measured from days to week before earthquakes occurrence have been reported by several authors in the past years. However, even in presence of physical models able to justify the observations (Tronin, 1996; Revil and Glover, 1997; Pulinets, 2009), up to now no one single measurable parameter, no one observational methodology has demonstrated to be sufficiently reliable and effective for the implementation of an operational earthquake prediction system (see for example Geller, 1997). The extension of our present observational capabilities and the refinement of data analysis methods could improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. However only from the integration of different observations (parameters) we expect to obtain false alarm rates and precision (in the space-time domain) of the earthquakes predictions useful for a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) ranging from the mediumlong up to the short and the very short term. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase, different parameters (e.g., thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented

Pre-Earthquakes: Processing Russian and European Earth observations for earthquake precursors studies

The scientific objective of Pre-Earthquakes is to demonstrate how far the systematic integration of measures of different physical and chemical parameters may improve our present ability to forecast strong earthquakes in the short term. Observations are collected from 18 different satellite systems and more than 100 ground stations will be used to study the anomalous variations of surface and atmospheric parameters (up to the ionosphere) that have long been proposed as possible precursors of strong earthquakes. The Sakhalin peninsula in eastern Russia, Turkey and Italy have been selected as initial testing areas where observation integration will be particularly intensified up to a period of real-time monitoring at the end of the project, expected for December 2012. After only 1 year of activity, automatic data-product generation chains were fully implemented for seven monitored parameters, using 20 independent observing technologies (including both satellite systems and ground stations), 11 different data analysis algorithms for (more than) three testing areas and 24 different testing periods. A Pre-Earthquakes Geoportal (PEG), is now ready to operate, serving product integration, cross-validation and scientific interpretation not only for project partners but also for networking members (presently more than 20) asking to join the project in the framework of the EQuOS (Earthquake Observation System) initiative. In this paper project rationale, scientific approach and achieved results to date are briefly presented

PRE-EARTHQUAKES , an FP7 Project for integrating observations and knowledges on earthquake precursors : preliminary results and strategy

PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) EU-FP7 project is devoted to demonstrate - integrating different observational data, comparing and improving different data analysis methods - how it is possible to progressively increase reliability of short term seismic risk assessment. Three main testing area were selected (Italy, Turkey and Sakhalin) in order to concentrate observations and integration efforts starting with a learning phase on selected events in the past devoted to identify the most suitable parameters, observations technologies, data analysis algorithms. For these areas, different ground (80 radon and 29 spring water stations in Turkey region, 2 magneto-telluric in Italy) and satellite (18 different systems) based observations, 11 data analysis methods, for 7 measured parameters, have been compared and integrated. A specific integration platform (PEG, Pre-Earthquakes Geoportal) based on OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) standards, was developed to operate a products integration, cross-validation and scientific interpretation