AAAI: an Argument Against Artificial Intelligence

The ethical concerns regarding the successful development of an Artificial Intelligence have received a lot of attention lately. The idea is that even if we have good reason to believe that it is very unlikely, the mere possibility of an AI causing extreme human suffering is important enough to warrant serious consideration. Others look at this problem from the opposite perspective, namely that of the AI itself. Here the idea is that even if we have good reason to believe that it is very unlikely, the mere possibility of humanity causing extreme suffering to an AI is important enough to warrant serious consideration. This paper starts from the observation that both concerns rely on problematic philosophical assumptions. Rather than tackling these assumptions directly, it proceeds to present an argument that if one takes these assumptions seriously, then one has a moral obligation to advocate for a ban on the development of a conscious AI

Three-Dimensional Simulations of Jets from Keplerian Disks: Self--Regulatory Stability

We present the extension of previous two-dimensional simulations of the time-dependent evolution of non-relativistic outflows from the surface of Keplerian accretion disks, to three dimensions. The accretion disk itself is taken to provide a set of fixed boundary conditions for the problem. The 3-D results are consistent with the theory of steady, axisymmetric, centrifugally driven disk winds up to the Alfv\'en surface of the outflow. Beyond the Alfv\'en surface however, the jet in 3-D becomes unstable to non-axisymmetric, Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. We show that jets maintain their long-term stability through a self-limiting process wherein the average Alfv\'enic Mach number within the jet is maintained to order unity. This is accomplished in at least two ways. First, poloidal magnetic field is concentrated along the central axis of the jet forming a ``backbone'' in which the Alfv\'en speed is sufficiently high to reduce the average jet Alfv\'enic Mach number to unity. Second, the onset of higher order Kelvin-Helmholtz ``flute'' modes (m \ge 2) reduce the efficiency with which the jet material is accelerated, and transfer kinetic energy of the outflow into the stretched, poloidal field lines of the distorted jet. This too has the effect of increasing the Alfv\'en speed, and thus reducing the Alfv\'enic Mach number. The jet is able to survive the onset of the more destructive m=1 mode in this way. Our simulations also show that jets can acquire corkscrew, or wobbling types of geometries in this relatively stable end-state, depending on the nature of the perturbations upon them. Finally, we suggest that jets go into alternating periods of low and high activity as the disappearance of unstable modes in the sub-Alfv\'enic regime enables another cycle of acceleration to super-Alfv\'enic speeds.Comment: 57 pages, 22 figures, submitted to Ap

Landscape configuration, organic management, and within-field position drive functional diversity of spiders and carabids

Abstract Agricultural management intensity and landscape heterogeneity act as the main drivers of biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes while also determining ecosystem services. The trait-based functional diversity approach offers a way to assess changes in community functionality across agroecosystems. We focused on carabids and spiders, because they are an important component of crop field biodiversity and have significant biological control potential. We assessed the effect of small- vs. large-scale agricultural landscapes, organic farming, and within-field position on functional diversity of spiders and carabids. We sampled pairs of organic and conventional winter wheat fields in small-scale agricultural landscapes (former West Germany) and in neighbouring large-scale agricultural landscapes (former East Germany). We sampled arthropods with funnel traps in transects at field edges, field interiors (15 m from edge), and field centres. The gradient from field edges towards the centres played an important role: spider body size decreased; ballooning ability increased, and hunting strategy switched from active hunters to more web-builders?presumably, due to higher microhabitat stability in the field centre. Higher trait diversity of spiders in field edges suggested higher biocontrol potential in small-scale agriculture. In contrast, carabid feeding switched from herbivores to carnivores, presumably due to higher pest densities inside crop fields. Furthermore, small-scale agricultural landscapes and organic management supported larger, i.e., less dispersive carabids. Synthesis and applications. In our research, spiders were more sensitive to edge effects and less sensitive to management and landscape composition than carabids. Smaller fields and longer edges, as well as organic management increase carabid functional diversity, which may increase resilience to environmental change. Since many spider species are confined to field edges, the effect of within-field position on functional diversity is more important in small-scale agricultural landscapes with more edge habitat than in large-scale agricultural landscapes. Our findings suggest that European Union policy should acknowledge the high benefits of small-scale agriculture for the functional role of major predators such as spiders and carabid beetles, as the benefits are equal to those from a conversion to organic agriculture

Well-Being as Harmony

In this paper, I sketch out a novel theory of well-being according to which well-being is constituted by harmony between mind and world. The notion of harmony I develop has three aspects. First there is correspondence between mind and world in the sense that events in the world match the content of our mental states. Second there is positive orientation towards the world, meaning that we have pro-attitudes towards the world we find ourselves in. Third there is fitting response to the world. Taken together these three aspects make up an ideal of being attuned to, or at home in, the world. Such harmony between mind and world constitutes well-being. Its opposite – being disoriented, ill-at-ease in, or hostile to the world – makes a life go poorly. And, as we shall see, many of the things that intuitively contribute to well-being are instantiating one or more of the three aspects of harmony

Accuracy of the electronic health record’s problem list in describing multimorbidity in patients with heart failure in the emergency department

Patients with heart failure (HF) often suffer from multimorbidity. Rapid assessment of multimorbidity is important for minimizing the risk of harmful drug-disease and drug-drug interactions. We assessed the accuracy of using the electronic health record (EHR) problem list to identify comorbid conditions among patients with chronic HF in the emergency department (ED). A retrospective chart review study was performed on a random sample of 200 patients age ≥65 years with a diagnosis of HF presenting to an academic ED in 2019. We assessed participant chronic conditions using: (1) structured chart review (gold standard) and (2) an EHR-based algorithm using the problem list. Chronic conditions were classified into 37 disease domains using the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality’s Elixhauser Comorbidity Software. For each disease domain, we report the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive of using an EHR-based algorithm. We calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) to assess overall agreement on Elixhauser domain count between chart review and problem list. Patients with HF had a mean of 5.4 chronic conditions (SD 2.1) in the chart review and a mean of 4.1 chronic conditions (SD 2.1) in the EHR-based problem list. The five most prevalent domains were uncomplicated hypertension (90%), obesity (42%), chronic pulmonary disease (38%), deficiency anemias (33%), and diabetes with chronic complications (30.5%). The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of using the EHR-based problem list was greater than 90% for 24/37 and 32/37 disease domains, respectively. The EHR-based problem list correctly identified 3.7 domains per patient and misclassified 2.0 domains per patient. Overall, the ICC in comparing Elixhauser domain count was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.82). The EHR-based problem list captures multimorbidity with moderate-to-good accuracy in patient with HF in the ED

Ethics and ‘fracking’: A review of (the limited) moral thought on shale gas development

Whilst claims about the ethicality of shale gas development via hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’) are commonplace in everyday discourse, little scholarly attention has been afforded explicitly to this aspect of unconventional fossil fuel extraction. The limited research that speaks to ethical considerations largely describes ethical concerns associated with development – extremely few claims in research literature make an ethical case for development. The most common ethical concerns cited in research stem from issues of distributive justice, with procedural justice, the precautionary principle, exposure to involuntary risks, rights-based arguments, and changes in community character and way of life as next most common. Additional research hints implicitly at ethical dilemmas associated with shale gas development, but does not openly identify these issues as having moral implications. Many ethical considerations relate closely to concerns about water quality and the volume/supply of water available for other purposes. The limited scholarship in this area reveals the import of understanding the ways in which ethics permeate thoughts about shale gas development for designing policy that responds to constituent needs and concerns. Even more limited than research on ethical claims in association with shale gas development is well-reasoned scholarship that analyses the extent to which ethical claims about development are well justified and philosophically justifiable. A comprehensive and systematic analysis of the range of ethical claims potentially relevant to shale gas development and their usefulness for informing policy on this topic would contribute greatly to informed decision-making on this controversial issue – something that science alone cannot achieve