Case Study: Global economic crisis and poverty in Pakistan

In this case study we adopt a macro-micro framework in order to evaluate the impact of the current global crisis on the Pakistan economy. We use a ‘top-down’ approach to combine a static computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. Our results suggest that between 2007 and 2009 the poverty headcount ratio is likely to have increased by almost 80 percent, from 22 to 40 percentage points. However, our results also show that this increase is attributable in part to the fuel and food crisis that preceded the financial crisis. Our results also indicate a differential impact, with wage increases for farm workers and a decrease in wages for skilled labour.CGE; micro-macro; global economic crisis; Pakistan

Automatic 3D building model generation using deep learning methods based on cityjson and 2D floor plans

In the past decade, a lot of effort is put into applying digital innovations to building life cycles. 3D Models have been proven to be efficient for decision making, scenario simulation and 3D data analysis during this life cycle. Creating such digital representation of a building can be a labour-intensive task, depending on the desired scale and level of detail (LOD). This research aims at creating a new automatic deep learning based method for building model reconstruction. It combines exterior and interior data sources: 1) 3D BAG, 2) archived floor plan images. To reconstruct 3D building models from the two data sources, an innovative combination of methods is proposed. In order to obtain the information needed from the floor plan images (walls, openings and labels), deep learning techniques have been used. In addition, post-processing techniques are introduced to transform the data in the required format. In order to fuse the extracted 2D data and the 3D exterior, a data fusion process is introduced. From the literature review, no prior research on automatic integration of CityGML/JSON and floor plan images has been found. Therefore, this method is a first approach to this data integration

The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?

It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan and Shleifer (2002) argue that there are two types of media bias. One bias, called ideology, reflects a news outlet’s desire to affect reader opinions in a particular direction. The second bias, referred to as spin, reflects the outlet’s attempt to simply create a memorable story. Competition between outlets can eliminate the effect of ideological bias, but increases the incentive to spin stories. We examine whether we find some evidence of spin in Dutch newspaper reporting on the state of the economy. If newspapers are indeed able to create memorable stories this should, according to our hypothesis, affect the opinion of readers with respect to the state of the economy. Sentiments about the actual state of the economy could be magnified by spin. As a result, consumer confidence – a variable that routinely measures the opinion on the state of the economy – can be expected to be affected not only by economic fundamentals, but also by the way these fundamentals are reported. We construct a variable that reflects the way consumers perceive economic news reported in newspapers. We find that this variable indeed has a significant impact on consumer confidence, which is short-lived.

Basic Income Reform in Germany: Better Gradualism than Cold Turkey

This paper advocates the cautious and constitutional evolution of existing basic income schemes (“unemployment benefit II”) and Targeted Negative Income Tax (TNI

Who Makes the Rules of Globalization?

In this paper I argue that profit-maximizing firms, even though they contribute to social welfare when they compete in the market, may not do so when they influence the political process. In particular, I suggest, through several examples from both the real world and from economic theory, that corporations have played a significant role in the formulation of the rules of the international trading system. They did this in the formation of the WTO, where they were responsible for the expansion to cover both intellectual property and services. And they do this in preferential trading arrangements such as the NAFTA, where they inserted the notorious Chapter 11 and specified rules of origin for automotive products. All of this is quite consistent with economic theory, including the literature on the political economy of trade policy. I also use a simple duopoly model to illustrate a domestic firm’s interest in setting rules of origin. The corporate influence on rules need not be bad, but there is no reason why it should be good either, as these examples illustrate.political economy of trade, trade institutions, globalisation, globalization

Ability matching and survival of start-ups

In this paper, I analyse how the survival of new firms is affected by the average ability level in the founding team, the team size, team members' homogeneity with respect to ability, and team members' heterogeneity with respect to education. As a theoretical basis, I apply the O-ring theory (Kremer (1993)). Using a rich employer-employee data set on the whole population of Danish firms founded in 1998, I find that the average ability level in a team and the team size have positive effects on firm survival. Having a team at all is the most crucial factor for the probability of survival of young firms. The degree of homogeneity with respect to ability and the degree of heterogeneity with respect to educations have no effect on the survival probability. --Entrepreneurship,firm survival,O-ring theory,start-ups

Emerging energy geographies : scaling and spatial divergence in European electricity generation capacity

This paper presents an evaluation of the impact of the related EU internal energy market and renewable energy policies by exploring the (sustainable) energy transition in the EUropean electricity sector and drawing on the emerging literatures on energy geographies. We use evidence aggregated from plant-level data on installed electricity generation capacity in the EUropean electric utilities sector over the period 1990–2013 to demonstrate how the unintended interaction between EU policies on energy market liberalization and climate change have led to new renewable energy entrants and more widely dispersed ownership of total generation capacity. Our empirical results suggest that six energy geography concepts enable deeper insights into the spatiality of the EUropean energy transition. Specifically, we find that territoriality and scaling are key lenses for interpreting the differentiated change processes occurring at EUropean, subregional and national levels. The EUropean energy transition is unlikely to converge onto a single trajectory any time soon, but particularly subregional approaches are argued to offer policy-makers with more spatially cognizant and effective levers

Exploring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions: A Simulation Analysis for Kenya and Ghana

The study applies purpose-built dynamic computable general equilibrium models for Kenya and Ghana with a disaggregated country‑specific representation of the power sector, to simulate the prospective medium-run growth and distributional implications associated with a shift towards a higher share of renewables in the power mix, up to 2025. In both countries, the share of fossil fuel-based thermal electricity generation in the power mix will increase sharply over the next decade and beyond according to current national energy sector development plans. The overarching general message suggested by the simulation results is that in both countries it appears feasible to reduce the carbon content of electricity generation significantly without adverse consequences for economic growth and without noteworthy distributional effects